Stocks discussion No. 9 - 2018
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posted by scrt4u @ Monday, September 03, 2018
55 Comments
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55 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.9 - 2018". Please post your questions or stock picks here
just sold holdings in AUCT, nice profit but a bit of a roller coaster stock to stick with. sideways for the SET until we can get some positive news about the election etc.
Holding firm on all others ,)
Well,yesterday when market slide down pretty much,I was on buy side and bought stocks I wanted for a longer time on discounted price.My experience from before is that I usually made very good-best profits after bought low in high volatility market.We will see.
yesterday the individuals were the only net buyers,so i guess there is further to drop before rise ,)? Pleased i got out of AUCT at 6.55,)
JON
Not only individuals,but mostly yes.I am pleased to go in .It depends about stock.Big Cup stock in Fund holdings are dangerous now,for sure,but there is much more stock to choose,like Small Cup and Mai.
SET - Two scenarios for now. 1) Today would be the leg bottom, and we go another attempt at 1730. 2) Like Jon said, further correction and we move below 1660.
Sep 7 tomorrow will be the best indication where we are headed, today is the crosspath.
On today's top active value stocks, TOP, VGI, CPN, have positive directions, we'll see.
Still buying cheap stocks slowly. Holdings are increasing, waiting for the dust to settle for a clear direction.
Mascu:
Tomorrow will be good day for some stock and bad one for some,like any day.Besides,it seems that new elections will be soon,so it can be good sign for bigger investors.Anyway,from my point of view,we need to follow market closely and avoid Big cup in which foreigners have bigger "stake".I bought pretty much SUSCO,NWR,UNIQ,SC on this discount and it seems good already.
all good in my oppinion of all the above comments :) ime in with both feet and holding strong, just got a lucky break with AUCT as it freed up another 400+k. i am also buying 1 bht bars of gold every month as it made/makes for scense than the tracker fund i was in GLD, which did not perform as a tracker fund should have. Got out with only a small loss on my 1 million investment and drip feeding it into gold bars (no ornaments). Lets see,oh and another bonus was an extra divvy from ESSO, which brings my divvy total for that stock alone to almost 100k this year , less W/T :)
Keep holding if you are in the SET , as this one as always is full of surprises ,)
last chance to jump on board LPH , get on whilst the tickets are a fair price ,)
SET Interesting hahahahaha. Refuse to make a clear direction, still continue to fight at the turning point intersection. Oh well, guess this carries on until next week. For now, all we can do is hold until another clear direction surfaces.
Today's winners, Hospitals. BCH and CHG.
Jon, GLD disappointed me last year too hahahaha. Oh well, atleast I kiss goodbye to ETFs and mutual funds for good. You are buying actual gold bars? That sounds like a very good idea.
yep ,gold bars it is,every month,that simple,at least when gold goes up.you get what its worth ,) if go down, then its my usual method of buy more ,) certainly dont stop loss EVER :)
I think that investing in gold bars is pretty bad investment.Not any income and gold prices will fall more and more.You can see history charts .
each to their own ,)
Today big outflow by foreigners,-3,395.46
Small cup and Mai are mostly OK
i guess the big rise today was on speculation of an election date anouncement after hours tommorrow ,) i actually thought thespeculation would be tommorrow ,) let see ??
Anyway hope it carrys on but if it does,then the exuse nxt week will be its priced in the mkt already ,) So the sheeple will probably buy and the smart ones will sell if of course this is the case ?? i am holding firm whatever as like they say, remember september ,)
I think more influence has BOT statement that they will not raise interest rates soon.
either wayi will take the ride ,)
Portfolio all green and full of smiles :)
SET We are in the clear for positive trend at this moment. 1722 was the breaking point. However, do note this positive trend may be high risk. What goes up fast, comes down fast as well. Not the typical slow upward movement we'll like.
Hospitals are doing well.
CPALL Nice surge today, will it hold? If it does, I will be holding for atleast 5-6 months.
EA Gradual up.
ESSO Slow positive trend
GULF
MINT Upwards, but this stock is a very tricky one. From the recent several years encounter. Unpredictable.
PTTEP Cautiously riding this one.
TOP Seems to be on a positive trend and not too late yet. Will be a lot of opportunities ahead, some days up some days down.
like i said,remember september ,) ime holding everything as always this time of the year ,)
What does everyone feel about PTG at this current spot?
Could be the perfect start of something great or just an impression. Thoughts? I'm undecided.
ive had such great profits off that stock PTG , i dont want to tempt fate as trading a fair bit higher than others PE and earnings wise.So personally i am staying out of it as i was hoping they were going to sighn up with a big brand minimart and it never happenned (yet). I think by them using their own brand max mart is negative for them.
Lets see ?? i do keep my eyes on PTG as if you remember i sdhouted it at bht3 and it went up way over 30bht. If you like the stock,then go for it,me.ime keeping the memories ,)
SET Still positive, although risky is noted. Positive direction trend going forward, with bottom point at 1720 possible.
Alright Jon, I'll keep a close watch on it too :)
ASIA PLUS has a flash note on PTG this morning,i think its all positive but its all in Thai, its on todays research page.
STA is my flyer at the moment ,)
PCSGH is about to explode again ,)
SVI and STA have already exploded and pleased to have those 2 in my portfolio ,)
looks like a needed healthy correction to me ,)??
Correction is already here.I sold out 2 counters today with some smaller lose ,AIT and THRE.
Too dangerous too me to wait in these stocks far more.
PLE and CPT sold out on time,same as AKP with nice profit today.
New big IPO -OSP-a soon,biggest this year and first day trade 17.10..Maybe it can awake market.Now does not look good.Sugar up about 30% in a last week or so,but stocks went down???THB start to depreciate and that can be great for exporters,but no response on market as well.CM announce interim dividend.Market react pretty crazy right now!!!
REBOUND ,)?
I think no rebound before 16-17 .10.Than on 17.10. big IPO and positive sentiment.
whatever but a correction is good and we could go 16.20 which is fine by me. if not , then ime all in anyway ,)
by the way,when the whole wide world knows about IPOs,then that is negative ,)??
@JON
Not negative,but from my point of view IPO like this and soon after TFF (Future fund) are very important for Government and institutional Thai investors to be successful .As You see today foreigners sold more than 10 Billion BHT stock and Thais bought almost all!!!SET ,besides fall much less than another stock-markets in a last few days!!!
lets see,normally IPOs are good for the SET and as always it desnt follow the other mkts as its a differrent creature of its own ,)
Well,let us see what is going on.I think that before elections on February next year SET will be pretty stable,but after that can be pretty rough.In a fact raising interest rates in SAD and EM will reduce investing in a stocks in EM mostly.It will in general push stocks lower to get better profit margin,cos. if you can get 4-5 % on bonds or in banks,who would risk to invest in a stocks in this price levels ? Bonds,options ,warrants,real-estates can be better options than.But stock market can get more interesting ,but far dangerous as well for speculative and swing trading.For fundamental trading NO,special in EM.
Well I'm still buying some, 20% of my total holdings still has good entry points. Others just waiting to bear fruit. My attitude right now with the SET is still bullish, with each low points as an opportunity to enter, and each high point to exit. Not your typical up up up scenario. If that's how the market is right now, we adapt to their waves.
Hospitals are steadily going up and waiting for more fruits to bear. Oil, still a lot of opportunities to enter.
Banks are just tired, directionless, like someone dozing off at work and occasionally waking up. Waiting for that power surge to happen.
In my personal opinion, I've already stayed away from bonds. 3-5%, take out inflation rate, left with 1-3% gains. Bonds are good if you need that money in a set period of time. Let's say, everyone needs to buy a car every 7-10 years, we put that 1 million in a bond, when we need to buy a car, the money is there and there's the extra income. It serves it's purpose. Other than that, stocks are the way to go because of growth+dividend = minimum 12%+. There's still plenty of companies providing 5-10% growth minimum, stack it with 2-5% dividends, anyway you look at it, stocks always better than bonds/deposits. Just have to improve and develop our entry and exit points better.
SET We are looking at 1660 as the low touch down point the following week. And see where the next surge takes us to.
Where is the ocober blog ??
bought back some AUCT today.
Market look very weak now.It seems to me that bear market on SET is here already.
I will mostly stay sideline now on.
Very weak market and everything is falling down.Same , bad and good stocks.I cut my stock positions on SET about 60%.On sell mode now.Afraid to buy , even on ATC.I think 3Q reports will be bad again,few years in a row now.
Very weak market and everything is falling down.Same , bad and good stocks.I cut my stock positions on SET about 60%.On sell mode now.Afraid to buy , even on ATC.I think 3Q reports will be bad again,few years in a row now.And I am worry if bear market start to rule hear,stocks will not recover for years.
Dont worry, the idea of stk mkts is to shake as many people out b4 the bull continues, i thought after 1620 was broken,we were going to 1580,i bought AUCT,PTG,LPH and all went into profit on yesterdays rebound,) always look on the bright side of negatives and anyone panic selling WILL regret it for sure ,)
JON:
Well,I trade on SET every day for last 3 years and I can tell You that value investing and long positions here are very bad idea.Maybe some REIT (only few) we can hold longer,but stocks NO.I am pretty OK now,cos. I change my strategy.If stock is going down,I sold out with 2-3% lose on S/L without any hesitation .If go up,I try let winner to run with tight trailing S/L.
Before I tried to wait waves back ,but mostly never happened,just lose become bigger and bigger.Many times now I am going short and buyback stock (if I think stock is OK) on lower level with better profit margin.I will NEVER-EVER wait anything on this market now if price is heading down,cos. bull market is about to finish.Before OK,but not now,for sure.And I avoid WARRANTS here,cos I think it is not fair valuation .
Yep, at the moment most stocks have a negative downward direction. It's cheap but always best to just let the knife fall. Not too eager to buy yet, just going to watch and let it go down further, smile as the stocks get cheaper and cheaper.
Boris, your strategy is quite similar to mine. Keep negative direction stock losses at the minimum, keep positive direction stock gains at the maximum while reducing position slowly as we head up to minimize risk. It works. No waiting. What goes down, continues to go down. What goes up, keeps going up. Simple.
On a side note, Gold is looking good, isn't it? :) That's why everything has it's purpose.
,)
It seems that bear market is here on SET
no reason to be , mostly good results
JON:
Yeah,most small cup have very bad numbers,not just now but 3-4 years in a row.
Construction,IT sector,most food sector are in a very bad shape.Even,some retail companies
and many utilities perform very bad few years in a row ,same as some energy com.
I am 94% in a cash now.Trade just a bit and closely monitoring market.
Everything which seems cheap today are cheaper at next day.
Very hard to find few stocks worth to invest in for a longer.
ime just holding everthing and playing the waiting game although did buy some PTG and AUCT again ,)lets see ???
Boring, that's all I can say. Stuck in the same place just like Bangkok's traffic jam. xD
No comment on the current market direction. Just sitting on whatever shares I have holding (positive earnings growth), and cash. Both not going anywhere either :D
The only thing that is moving is Jon's gold bars. 8D
want the Gold bars to dip as i am buying both November and December bars later nxt week ,)
Gold bars are very bad investment,indeed.See charts a bit.
All negative across the board, hospitals seems to be holding well.
ime looking further than my nose buying those gold bars every month ,)
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