Stocks discussion No. 7 - 2018
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posted by scrt4u @ Sunday, July 01, 2018
16 Comments
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16 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.7 - 2018". Please post your questions or stock picks here.
dont get out stay in and buy in ,)
Borislav
Thank you for the comment, remind me when I sometimes do go sidetrack. Very good advices there. Normally I never buy in the downward direction because what goes down, usually goes down further. It's a fact, but human nature always tend to want to buy at bargain prices, gives a feeling of instant gratification for success. Able to collect something at cheap prices than the previous months. I admit, I'm at fault for that these past few weeks. The reason I've bought the hospital stocks slowly is at the current prices, they are below "the lowest fair value" of 4 years of data. The lowest fair value is defined as for a given year, the lowest price possible for the given eps of that year. Stocks do maintain that lowest bar, whoever that is "the great hand". If 2016 year eps is 10, the lowest price possible from historical stock price data, shows 100stockprice for the whole 2016 year to early 2017. If 2017 year the eps rises to 11, the lowest stock price for that period is also around 110.
With that in mind, hospitals in general estimated for this year have revenue of 7-10%+, and net profits in line with that, no surprises in cost fluctuations. So what I am saying is, the current price of hospitals is below even "the lowest price for this year's eps". Happens once in 5 years, and it broke the bottom record. It can go up 16% and still be regarded as cheapest in 5 years with relation to EPS. And the lowest fluctuation from lowest price range to highest price in a given year for stocks can be around 10-20% no problems. So in my opinion, at current prices, there is upside of 16%+15% without any surprises. Fundamentals still look good and on track for 7-10% eps growth this year. I do agree with you, best to wait for Q2 results. I did a quick scan of the top 50 value traded SET stocks, most aren't impressive and are untouchable. And yes, the current direction is still downwards, so the key is buying VERY VERY SLOWLY. I expect a buying speed of 2 weeks to 1 months to fulfill the actual desired total number.
On another note, with the discussion on waiting for Q2 results. In my experience, it's best to take actions accordingly to stock direction first, than to wait for Q2. For example, if we are holding a particular stock, if it keeps going up, it's fine to wait for next quarter earnings. BUT, for some unknown reason, it suddenly goes down quickly continuously for 3-5 days. EXIT immediately. Don't wait for the information or news, by then it's too late. There's not enough law enforcement guards to supervise and enforce stock market irregularities. Why there's a sudden drop in price, there is always trouble ahead. And those people know it before us, when "they" decide to release a public statement, it's already too late. Always better to exit first, regroup, calm down. 2 weeks-1 month later, assess situation, if it's a fake correction, just go back in, fees are low. Many people trade huge losses because they are stingy about paying trading fees. If it's a real correction/scandal, you saved your principal big time. Never ever hold onto a losing stock. End the relationship as soon as possible, and start a new relationship with a winning upward stock.
My current view of the SET is, yes it's cheap now for a few stocks. Cheap means, price went down but fundamentals EPS goes up. 98% of the stock prices went down, but they deserve it, because EPS fails to deliver this year, are they cheap? No. Their EPS drop 10-20%, their price dropped 10-20%, nothing became cheap.
SET general direction is still heading downwards.
QHPF as discussed earlier last month, failed to deliver for May nav. Comparing to previous year, it only increased 1.5% which is not acceptable. But it was the last champion of the total reits/property funds to fall. It followed the trend. Might slowly exit this as well, depending on QHPF's stock direction.
So far, I don't own any stocks of other sectors, than hospitals and property. As only them have good stable outlooks, but will wait for Q2 results as well.
Well ,last 3 days,it seems ,sentiment is changing.I am now buying more stocks,but not stock with big debt and I buy "Thai" stock with domestic ownership,cos. cash outflow for foreigners is huge already 5 months in a row.I buy almost only Small cup and Mai now.So far so good.I buy TSR,CM,ASIAN,SIRI,TMILL,MBAX,PPP,KIAT,WINNER,PDG and some other stock.If I see that price is drop with big volume,I sold at once.This strategy work pretty well for a last week.I made nice profit with IFS,FSS,CNS last few days too.I try to buy now stocks with good dividend last 5-10 years and strong fundamental too.
Keep in mind, this may just be the "small attempt at rebound after a correction".
Probably hit a high of 1650-1675, before it continues downward again.
Would probably be wise to wait 1-2 months and see where the real direction is heading.
Collect very slowly. Waiting another month will give us a better view, than making a huge decision now that can be costly.
Yeah,sure it can be costly if we miss direction ,but now I prefer smaller lots and swing and day trading.And besides I buy only stocks with good numbers and almost all dividend players for last 5-10 years and I have tight S/L as well.I have "rule" now that it is better to sell more than buy now (if it is profitable).So I have realized gain today too about 3000 BHT .Not much,but in a day like today,this is a great.In a last 4 days about 35.000 realized profit,but need to be besides computer all the time and react fast and use I-ALGO as well.
Well,today took almost all profit already,cos. I reckon that in a next week we can drop more and I can buy on lower.So far so good for swing and day trading.I think this cycle will last maybe a day or two more or stop even on Monday.So we must now customize our mindset and action with market moves only.
Slowly collecting CPALL. (buying time 1-2 months)
Touched 5 year low marks with relation to EPS. Expect 2018 and 2019, 10% growth per year with current data.
Some really great and unexpected profits with CFRESH and CM yesterday.
It seems that weaker THB is a very good for food industry here,cos most of com. are export oriented.I expect that BR and WINNER and TMILL will go up as well soon.
ELECTRONICS ALSO ,)
I think electronics have a much more issues than food sector and it is not competitive to Chinese products.
well the stand alone one is SVI which i called earlier as its into specialist equipment and has a good currencey hedge with its operations in Austria.This company seems always flat to the boards, just supply of the raw materials thats been holding them back.
Think this stock will fly this time around and i will hold it lnger than normal,lets see ,)???
Well, all stocks in the green now. Faster than desired :( Didn't finish shopping yet haha.
I jumped in on ESSO with avg cost 12.02 only because it was 5 years EPS cheap(2018-2019 EPS growth won't be impressive with current data). Too bad, it went up too fast or else I was going to increase more holdings. Didn't get a sizable amount that I was expecting.
Hospitals, finally in the green after weeks of accumulating in red. Finally get some profits rolling in, slowly. Nothing exciting.
CPALL Still collecting slowly, just because it's cheap comparing to 5 year EPS data, and it hasn't really spiked up yet.
IRPC Riding this one for now since it's going up, will exit when direction changes.
IVL Same as above, riding it because it's going up.
KBANK Last few weeks been buying very slowly, right now 8.94% in the green, pretty hectic high risk in my opinion, selling daily for gains probably for total of 4-5days, will re-enter during the upward direction's weak spots.
KTB Seems more stable than KBANK, may just ride this one upwards. Once direction starts to go down, will exit.
PROPERTY 4.6% in the green now from collecting earlier. Slow and steady upwards, nothing fancy. No plans for it right now.
SET Not 100% in the positive safe direction yet. Today is actually near the highest point of the downward cycle that started in Jan 2018. If this triggers another sell off in the few days ahead, we are still in that cycle. If however, 5-10 days ahead, SET holds this point, things may be looking positive.
40% Buyable Stance from earlier 2%. Overall looking better than the previous months.
To Mascu, well done!
This thread is closed. Please move to "Stocks discussion No.8 - 2018"
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