Stocks discussion No. 2 - 2018
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posted by scrt4u @ Thursday, February 01, 2018
21 Comments
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21 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.2 - 2018". Please post your questions or stock picks here.
hi,
Will the market go up further?
Please update.
I am wondering about influence of big drop of stocks in USA and Germany on SET?
Maybe on Big Cup and SET-50,SET-100?Energy sector?
We will see soon.
for sure there should be a large dip on the SET at the oppenning bell but the SET is a strange creature and could easily bounce back by the end of the day a the big boys such as the FOREIGHNERS are not well invested at the moment and they would welcome a dip , i am sure ,) lets see ??
Anyone keen to buy this dip? Just for some CPF and CK shares at 22.8 and 24.9 baht, both sold more than a year ago in the high 20s so it is a good chance to reload. Also bought back some BR at 7 baht. Still keeping pkenty of cash ready to buy if this dip becomes a crash.
Just need to drip feed it back into the markets in the names I think are undervalued. Still holding Aqua now at a slight loss to my cost of .58, but not too bothered about it, its subsidiary company owned through EPCO is planning to IPO soon which is a positive.
Yeah,I bought some on this dip,after selling higher . As I think,now is a good chance to "reload".I buy mostly Small cup and Mai stocks(but only good fundamental),cos. I think it will bounce very soon and I but TNPF and MNRF as depressed PF with great chance for a huge capital gain in a short time frame .
It's a global stock trend. I'm just going to wait and let it do it's thing. Nothing great usually happens when making a decision in a rush. So the past 4-5 days, have been a downward direction, most buy now expecting it to magically go up the next few days.
I like to observe. The recent 2 days pullback, isn't overly impressive. Not "bargain power buying" material. More like, this is the best you will see within this period. The "big hand" made this move, what will the next move and direction be? Is he starting a direction downward? He certainly isn't letting everyone buying stocks at "bargain prices" is he.
Food for thought. For now, I'm observing. I expect continued downward direction with current information. Even if there is a huge spike upwards this week, I would be cautious. I'll probably make my move again in 1-2weeks time, but not now.
Boris, I've held on to my PF as well. They are doing well and unaffected. I may add more after reviewing their recently published NAVS.
Kouhou, CPF, I've bought a bit earlier few weeks ago as it seems to have flattened out. But now it seems to have continued it's downward direction again, which doesn't look good at this point. I like to let it continue to drop, once this trend has reverse, and fundamentals look good. I may re-enter.
Well a correction was always going to come and better sooner than later, keep calm hold on dont sell and have pacience.I added to PCSGH this morning and still waiting to buy more.There is always going to be corrections but the good news is the big hands (foreighners) arent holding nowhere near as much stock as in normal previous years.
Fingers crossed and like Masco says, they arent giving much away at the bargain basement and most of my stocks have lost little if any, thats why ive only bought the above to add .
Jon,For me is far better to cut some positions or even go out in a such volatile market and improve cash position.Not to wait much.Use now tight S/L and react on any bad news or numbers.
I was study charts on SET itself and particular stocks and I find out that on most Small cup and Mai volatility is big and when price went down,you can sit on losses for a years.Same for some cyclical stocks.On a bull market your strategy is OK,but not now,at least for a me.This will be deeper correction all over the world.You see NIKKEI,SHANGHAI,VN INDEX today?Crash 3-5% until now.I am only keen to hold some PF and REIT -s now and few dividend stock with good numbers.I have experience with BJCHI,EARTH etc,and if you wait there you will lose 50% or all!I am not such a gambler.Better to sleep and feel good.
This is the SET and its unlike any other stockmarket in the world. I speak about the SET only. My portfolio went up today and is only 1.25 per cent down since the correction and ime happy to sit on stocks for years and i never lose sleep over the SET.
It is a creature of habit and always was there is a massive clue out there evey day of which direction the market is heading and it was right on Q today to finish flat,)
Ive been a gambler all my life and started from nothing,now i dont need to worry about anything financially,so let me put it this way ,)
Seen so many losers drop out and then get caught short and finish up with nothing .
Anyone who sits on the stockbrokers all day every trading day,normally finish up broke why ?? Your own broker is the culprit bank and dealer to you and unless you play them at their own game you will surely lose ,) I play with the bank,always have,always will rules are for fools when it comes to the SET ,) Have a good weekend guys and dont lose any sleep as i certainly wont ,)
Jon,I think that SET is unlike stock markets in EU and USA.That is true.I am trader almost 22 years already and I am still "lasting ",but on SET I trade about 16 months only.I live in Bangkok now more than 5 years,but I was trading mostly in Europe before.I play with Bangkok bank-Bualuang and I have very good conditions and great trading software with Algo trading,futures ,etc.I am not daily trader and I never was.More position and swing trader with some long-term portfolio.I am happy with my trading results here and I try to learn more and improve my skills.Same like you wrote,I lose less than 1.15 % value of my investment since correction start.I was trading -selling only about 20% of my portfolio last days and only stock with some bad news or numbers,like PDI or ILINK with very limited and small loss and I buyback some of stock I sold on lower price.In other side,You must admit that SET can be very "dangerous" and if you do not act on time,You can have huge loses(Earth,Bjchi,Ilink,GL,PACE etc) cos. sometime reports are false and fabricated and if you do not have S/L ,You will suffer huge losses.We do not need to know direction every single day,but we must have some instruments to protect us from huge losses,even on SET.
Borislav,there are clues out there way ahead of a stock going to lose half its value etc and one very important one is check what the main shareholders and directers are buying and selljing as that is a strong indication of where the stock is headindg. IE i sold BLAND still with a small profit but when i saw main shareholders selling vast lumps of the stock,i sold too as whats good for them,is good for me. That way they/you have sold out before thae actual crash of the stock ,) Its easy for a stock to go down 20 or 30 per cent on the SET just the same in reverse and thats why i dont use SL i only sell when the directers and main shareholders sell and again,in reverse. That info is not easy to find but it has to be reported to the stock mkt and if you dig deep,its there for all to see ,) Bualuang are specialists in dealing the cards ad ive seen them skin many a trader. So onething we agree in is dont day trade the SET only on extreme spikes either up or down which occassionally happen but even then,i dont day trade.The SET is ruled as one of the most corrupt in the world and you have to knock the rules in the head. Do your homework and you can find the times to sell and buy , way before the big loss and gains ,)
@Jon
Bualuang has really great and advance trade software with so many options to trade.I have right as a VIP trader to join IPO-s where they are Financial advisor (many of IPO-s).That make me a lot "of easy money " last year.Gains were 15-100% profit from single IPO on ATO or in a few days or weeks.Only this 2 advantages are enough good for me to trade mainly with them on SET.YES,of course,selling from management or main stockholders is alarm and I follow that.
I can not still understand how you can trade without S/L ???
@Jon
How can someone "skin many trader"???We decide by our own judgement where and when and how to invest..I am not novice to need someone to lead me and we have Trade software and common sense and more or less trading skills.Up to us,how we will perform,but Software can help a lot if you know how to use it properly,special ALGO trading tools,TA with charts and FA .Thai capitalist web. page give you data about management trades as well,so not so hard to know.
you have your methods i have mine G,nite ,)
Boris, I use Bualuang as one of my platforms as well. Although only familiar with the settrade trading and the aspen technical chart. Some others I would like to use, but it's in Thai.
I'm constantly improving my formula for the stock market, always learning, always seeing what went wrong and how to correct that and so on. It's a probability game, the percentage of gain versus the percentage of loss. Most people here will buy when the stock is "cheap", however, I like to wait until the downward direction has ended, and then enter when there is a clear upward direction. That to me is less risk. I wouldn't want to buy a stock only to have it keep going downwards. I rather buy a stock that keeps going upwards. But like Jon said, everyone has their own methods. If it works for them, who's to complain right?
The above is my buying method. How I sell is partial. As the stock progresses upward, I sell about 20%. This is automated and not by feel of the moment. As the stock reaches a possible unforeseen peak, I might only have 10-20% of the original amount left. Any 3-5% drop in price, will only cost me 0.5% of the original amount. I don't sit on stocks that are heading downwards. Too much risk and loss for no reason, when that cash could be sitting in another stock going upwards. That's why never be dedicated to a few particular sectors. Be open-minded. When some stocks are going down, there are some stocks that are going up. Always keep an eagle view of the overall market.
By using the above method, it's just standard SOP. Each transaction about 10-30% gains, and risk way below 5%. Total time, probably 1-3 months.
Last October had mentioned a speculative punt on Npp. Got in around 1.01 baht and then as expected, it promptly tanked. Went to a low of 0.64 and then started it's climb. I got out today at 1.79 for a neat little profit.
The other one I mentioned on that day Tata steel is hovering around 0.93 while my average cost is 1.06. Still holding as I believe when it makes it's move it will do a shoot to around 1.80+. Don't know when that will happen but I'm patient.
@Han Solo
TSTH - Tata Steel has no any reason to go up.I think it will tank to 0.5-0.6 BHT pretty soon.
NPP was pure gambling.Stock is for bankruptcy .If you are out,good for you!
@borislav
Completely agree with you that it's a pure gamble. That's why I called it a "speculative punt" when I posted in October.
To play stocks like this, put in an amount you can afford to lose. In my case, I put in 100k and got back 179k. Mentally I was prepared to lose 50k. For any reader who is new to the stock market , this kind of investing not for you.
For Npp , I'm guessing there will be a capital increase needed in another 3-6 months which probably will explain this movement of price.
The parent company of Tata steel (TSTH)is a giant in India and also owns Jaguar/RangeRover so not too worried parking my money there and waiting.
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