Stocks discussion No.7 - 2017
Welcome to Stocks discussion No.7 - 2017
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posted by scrt4u @ Tuesday, July 04, 2017
34 Comments
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34 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.7 - 2017". Please post your questions or stock picks here.
The overall trend is negative these past few weeks.
UMI -
AQUA -
GIFT - Unless it can break 7 successfully
MONO +
CENTEL +
KBANK +? If below 195 then -
First time commenter, Aqua is hitting a value which presents quite a limited downside, PE below 10 and PBV below 1.
My Holdings at the moment, Samtel 10.8, Demco 7.2, PTTGC 58, INTUCH 61, Advance 154, EA 24, AQUA 0.7 ( bought today), BJCHI 5.5, BR 6.15, PSH 22.1. PTTEP 71.
Quite a range of hits and misses this and last year. Sold early on IVL at 26. sold HANA at 35, sold PTT at 315.
Any thoughts on EA? I will exit shortly above 35.
Machu I hope GIFT px will be double next year :)
Ueda
set number daily.
ITD: Must confess I was sucked in at 4.40 with what looked like a very limited downside, but as we know there are no lower limits on the SET. Still, better than entering earlier.
BBL: Having a good run, will be profit taking and corrections on the way but could see it at 280-290.
AQUA: Waiting for it to drop a bit more, but might enter if it starts moving.
Not impressed by recommendations at a high that instantly go on a 20-70% downtrend.
Welcome Kouhou Nakamura, hope we can enjoy more insights from everyone.
UMI -
AQUA -
SAMTEL -
DEMCO =
PTTGC -
INTUCH +
ADVANC +
EA =+?
BJCHI -
BR =?
PSH =
PTTEP -
HANA -
AQUA is definitely cheap now but I've learned the "never catch a falling knife". I've tested it over the years. Your rewards will be tremendous, but there is a risk that we are still waiting for the crowd to buy in. How long that will take, nobody ever knows. I would recommend buying when the crowd starts buying in. That way we are sure we are in the uptrend and the loss is just 5% usually. We pay 5% to be certain we are in an uptrend.
EA, very tricky at this stage. If it breaks 37, then keep riding above 39. If it goes 33, definitely sell all. The current situation is stalemate. I wouldn't buy or sell yet at this point, wait for the next few days and decide.
Hello David Saputra
GIFT -
It does look hopeful before 17July. But right now it seems headed towards 6.
Please do keep an eye on it closely, these few days pricing will be very important.
ITD -
BBL + Up up and away~~
MONO -
CENTEL If it hits 39 and below, sell.
Kbank If it hits 197 and below, sell.
Remember, the market is always the god. We are only little human beings. Investing has no place for ego, anyone with ego will be bankrupt. We observe the trend, take in information, and then we react wisely. It is okay to make mistakes, be a man and admit it, and then make the wise decision today. Reduce loss as priority. We must control loss and minimize it. If we enter a specific stock and realize it's not going the right direction, GET OUT. It's okay to get in again when the direction is correct. Trading fees mean nothing, they are just a seatbelt that locks you on to a rollercoaster seat.
July definitely isn't an easy trading month.
stop sweating , the rebound is close and just keep buying more,the falling knife is almost done and the rebound will be quick and too late to get in ,)
i stand by all my calls just be patient ,) SET always does the oppisite to all other markets. if you sell,then you are all idiots ,)try it and see what happens ,)
UMI -
AQUA -
ITD -
BBL -
KBANK -
MONO =+
GIFT -
CENTEL =+
INTUCH =+
ADVANC =+
EA =?
BR =?
PSH =+
This market looks overvalued to me, not much bargains to be had, cashed out of PSH at 23 and EA at 35.5. My portfolio is looking very small now.
Took a heavier position in Samtel at 12.3 to take my average cost now to 11.4. Sold some Intuch at 60 and will be looking to re buy again on weakness.
Some of my investment friends are asking about GL, I'm of the view this company has serious governance and disclosure issues. Stay well clear of GL.
Mascu: Good advice 4 posts up.
BBL in downtrend but should do well over the long haul.
Out of interest, is UMI still on your list in hopes of a miracle recovery?
Sorry, 5 posts up from my previous post.
Dee, yea Kouhou Nakamura's post suddenly popped up above yours =)
BBL -
UMI - Jon will probably be able to answer you on this one. I've changed my investing strategy these two years. I stopped predicting and tame myself to just observe quietly. Whatever the market throws at us, we respond wisely without feelings or fear. We respond with laws we made for investing. For now, if I was to consider UMI, it would not be the time yet. A knife drops, never pick it up. It will never be too late to get in when the time is in the uptrend. When it rains, let it rain as long as it wants. Once the sunshine comes out, there's plenty of time to join back in with profits.
Kouhou Nakamura
PSH + is actually looking positive at the moment.
EA + is as well.
SAMTEL = No comment yet, knife has fallen, bulls and bears are fighting evenly haha. We will wait and see. If below 12, get out immediately.
INTUCH + Still looking good. Possible heading towards 61-62.
GL =- Like a dead flat duck since March.
AQUA -
ITD -
KBANK =? Knife fallen, bulls winning a bit more than bears, but tough battle.
MONO = Careful, today seems the direction wants to go downwards.
GIFT - GET OUT
CENTEL =+
ADVANC =+
BR =- A little more on the weakside, possible downwards.
Mascu: Good advice as usual, much better to pick up the knife after it hits the ground even if you miss the first bounce.
UMI: I bought a few at the wrong side of 7 and bailed out with a small loss which was easy enough to recover when it bounced last year from 2.30-3.50, and keeping an eye on it since. To be honest I still can't see what's holding it from another sharp drop, no good news, mediocre investments, weak fundamentals, and two years on I am still trying to figure out what research made it a tip at a high just before it lost 70%.
BTS: Dropped 25% since called at 10, but recovered a bit and should rise further. I bought in at 7.90 - 8.60, avg 8.20 with the bonus of a couple of divis. Much of profits being used for further construction/investment, and for me that makes it nothing special but a solid long term hold.
AQUA: Down 20% since it was called, now looking more stable with high volume bid over ask, but I am still on the fence waiting for it to drop just a bit more.
ITD: Big question mark here! Down 20% from called at 5.35, I bought in at 4.40 (now avg 4.32), but I think it should be performing better than it has. If it drops to 4 I'm out.
UMI i called wrong but saw the same pattern that drove it up from bht3 to 30 a few years ago which i made a lot out of. Since then it was found that the stock had been manipulated and criminal cases were dealt out to the boiler rooms that did it. So yes i am still in but not advising anyone to buy anymore.
I think you guys and gals forget about the other one that went from 3bht-bht30 that i advised from the very start ,)
I am calling it again PTG as i work off what i see just like i doubled 1 million into 2 on CPALL a few years ago ,) Now PTG has just bought coffee world which is a positive for their gas stations and next i see a venture coming soon with one of the big name mini marts and my guess is , it could be Lawson 108 but it doesnt matter which. So i belive that announcement will be made quite soon and the rental income alone will see PTGs profits grow olus another positive for thier pumps. I bought and sold all the way up to 28 bht many times and also made a million out of that. My target is a million per year or 25 per cent out of the SET Aand i have achieved that for the last 6 years without fail and this year i hit the target by mid march. I predict a record breaking year in 2017 as i have a lot more shares that have handsome profits that i am holding onto until the end of the year. So like i said,i do what i see and i have bought more AQUA today and yes of course , i am still calling it but when i first called it it rocketed right up and some of you (not me) got caught with a false price. Just be patient and wait and see ok in the land of the blind,the one eyed man is KING ,)
JON: UMI dropped from 10.80 in 1990 to 0.14 (14 satang) in 2002, slowly picked up to 7.00 over the next 11 years to January 2013, and then peaked at 22 on 1st Feb 2013 for just one day before dropping very quickly to 7.50, which is when you called it just before another continuous slide to below 3.
When did you sell at 30?
ITD: I have set aside my trading bible which told me to leave if it drops to 4. Looked at this again and it's a difficult call, but instead of selling yesterday I backtracked and bought more. Avg now 4.26.
AQUA: Started buying at 0.68, tiny downside from here.
Lots of volatility out there so stay safe people, do your own dd, don't listen to garbage.
i sold UMI around 4/5 years ago at bht3, sold some at 6 12 and 24 bht before it went on to 30bht then dropped very quickly, so correct it would have been around 2013 and a lot of my dear friends thanked me for the tip.I actually meant to sell all at bht12 on a shitty day in Sihanoukville where i got my laptop stolen, found out i had actually bought instead of sold and thats how i doubled again by shear accident as i didn't realise for a few days later what i had done ,) i did sell at 24 not 22 and i believe it went all the way up to 30 but i was out by then. Anyone want to question the bht3 -33bht on PTG also ????????. i am chipping away at that agin overtime it dips as i am confident it is going to announce a link up with a major minimart and my guess and only a guess is Lawson 108. its sitting around 19bht right now but for sure that has been the best find i ever had and yes i did call it on this post right at the bottom, go ahead and check it out. ,)) seems like you guys don't like to mention the winners just the losers ,) UMI this time around i got caught out with and like i said i hit my profit target by mid march this year so 25 per cent up with the rest of the year to go and i have some large profits on ESSO, PM that i am holding firm as i think there is more upside ,) SVI and KSL are the biggest ski profits i had this year and now out of both of them completely. I do have SVI warrant-3 though as an edge.
Please be careful with ITD, because as a trained accountant, their debt load is not sustainable even with a large backlog. I predict they will need to recapitalise in the near future which will dilute the shares and drag the price down further.
Another point to Jon, his buy and hold strategy reaps far bigger rewards than a trade trade trade strategy. Day to day movements should not spook seasoned investors.
JON: UMI peaked at 22 for one day only before falling rapidly, but you sold at 24 before it reached 30? Tell us how. This was in 2013, and according to your earlier post you already knew its spectacular rise/drop was a boiler room scam with other criminal activities also involved, but you still tipped it - just before another 60% dive.
Then you tell us you bought at 12 by 'accident' when you intended to sell, but not why you didn't sell (at a profit) when you realised your error.
As far as your 'pattern' is concerned, which you mentioned a few times, the only pattern I saw at the time you called UMI was preparation for another downward spiral. I posted about this at the time, if you recall, to warn our fellow traders to stay clear, but you kept on plugging it even after acknowledging you knew it was a scam.
Sorry mate, not happy, but I will stop short of suggesting you were part of the scam to hook the unwary.
I also note that last year you claimed to have sold everything and was holding 100% cash, but you also boasted more than once that you NEVER sell at a loss. This doesn't reconcile with a position in UMI, which I am beginning to doubt you ever had.
PTT + I bought today
UMI -
BTS =+
AQUA -
ITD -
PTG =- Bottomed but waiting for the next direction. Be patient. May go up, may go down, don't predict. Wait and observe.
CPALL =- Same as PTG
ESSO =- Same as above 2, I see a pattern xD
KSL =- Same as above 3.
PM -
SVI - Bulls fighting back hard, will they win?
BBL -
KBANK -
PSH + Weak
EA + Weak same as above.
SAMTEL + Seems a start of something if it holds. Keep a watch on it.
INTUCH +
MONO = Flat
GIFT -
CENTEL =?
BR =+?
Kouhou Nakamura, I am also sitting on a lot of cash at the moment right now. It's just those times when nothing is attractive. Patience is not a loss, it's an evasion from a loss. Normally when I have no stocks at hand, I rest them in property funds, but unfortunately right now, property funds are bottomed out in downtrend as well. And money market funds 1% doesn't attract me at all, so... Cash :)
Kbank did spark my attention when I just returned to this forum a few weeks ago, but I've exited because the direction went the other way with a minor 1-2% loss. Today PTT looks good, I bought just a small share, for testing, not serious lumpsum. The way the market is acting this month, I'm still cautious stance.
To be fair Dee and Jon, Dee is looking out for the best interest of everyone in this forum not to only pick out people's mistakes. We are a discussion group for investments and we have to maintain that sort of credibility and quality here. This isn't a place to brag about wins or whatnots. Society never cared about that loud exhaust Ducati that roared past everyone's car on the road. Every word we say, we mean it. We have information on stocks that date back past 10 years. Date and price are available for all to see and prove. No one in this world NEVER selled at a loss. No one. Lay down your ego and be truthful, welcome to the forum of little human beings. :)
As a seasoned investor, it is impossible to never sell at a loss unless you're not in the market or your holding unrealised losses. Frankly, we should celebrate wins, but at the same time we should see losses as a learning experience and not something to be ashamed of. I try to be open about my losses when people ask me for investment advice and I always ask them if they can stomach those figures I point out.
And yes, scammers do exist. Whether they are intended or innocent, they are still scams.
In the innocent world, stock prices reflect strictly on the eps of a company. If CPALL was making 10 billion this year in net profit, and next year they made 11 billion. The stock price would move from 100 to 110.
However most do not know. There are way more "types of traders" in the stock market.
1) Bankers/financial institutions. These are your financial advisors, who tell you to buy certain stocks or mutual funds. They tell you, it's for your best interest. It's not.... It's what their management NEEDS them to sell at this particular month and for you to buy. Don't listen to them.
2) Brokers
Who do they work for? Your 0.17% trading fee? NO. Large corporations hire them to "manage" their stocks. From initial listing, advertising, acquiring the money from the investors in exchange for shares and so on. If a said company going bankrupt, but needs their share price to increase, who do they turn to? Yes... them. Does it work? It does. Share prices rocket up 5-10days? Then?
3) High Networth Individuals
We have 5 friends. Person 1 pours 50ml into glass 1. Person 2 takes the glass and pours another 50ml. And so on.
Person A buys all the share in the market from 100 to 105. Person B agreed to continue this trend and buy all the shares from 105 to 110. (Person A is already out and profited). And so on until the Person E which the price is at 125, he exits. He could profit, he could have a loss. A high price requires a stronger buyer base than a seller base. At this time, the "fake buyer base" suddenly disappears.
These are just 3 out of the many "investors" out there. Be careful who you listen to, question everything, make your own decision not because of other voices you hear.
DEE, you certainly dont know what the hell you are talking about and certainly know less about the SET. my guess is you are a loser and trying to accuse someone for your cock ups. I have tipped many winning stocks on this forum and name me anybody that has tipped better winners can you ??? no you cant UMI was my only fxxk up and ime still holding. Howsabout PTG from 3bht to 33 and AH 1at 12bht to 25 and cpall at 24 to 48 (a lot higher now). I am fully invested in the SET and never afraid of it and i just love dips in the mkt i still say dont cut your stop loss on the SET as this mkt is not the same as many others where wild swings are quite normal.
i have been back in this mkt for 6 years now and 6 million up so guess what mr clever Dick,my stocks are running for free ,) i made this years 1 million by mid march on KSL (3 TIMES) SVI (3 TIMES) AH (3 TIMES) and am out of all now as i got out at the top on the first 2 and 3 nice profits on the 3rd , when i say 3 times,i mean i bought and sold them 3 times. I sold the mkt last lear at exactly the right time and bought back in when i saw the double bottom just like i sold at the treble top ,) I have some rather large profits right now including ESSO PM BLAND PCSGH SAT etc etc etc and i expect all to rise further and i certainly expect to have a record breaking year ,) UMI has made me a shit load of money from the 2013 rally and i caught it at everytime it doubled. so if you dont want my reccomadions i will glady leave this blog right now. Your worst enemy is your owqn broker as they are the bank and you are the player and the only way to beat them is at thier own game and hold on tight to stocks as the second you sell they will rebound just like vice versa thats how it works and except it. Listen to MASCUs advice above as he obviosly has scence . My calls are still AQUA , PTG as they have come back down to around 19 bht and i expect them to join with one of the top minimarts my guess and only a guess is Lawson 108 ???. if SVI comes back close or below 5bht i will dive in again as its a stk of habit and i have edged my bets on SVI-W3 anyway. DONT HAVE A STOP LOSS ON THE SET,BUY MORE ,))) your choice guys ime happy to leave this forum and not give anymore advice as you only picked up on the only bad one i gave you and chances are,1 day it will come good again ,)BYE BYE ,)
DEE for once i see you had scense to buy both ITD and AQUA in the dips to lower your average , exactly what i did. Advice,your brokers are the biggest scammers and ive seen many a persong go broke by sitting behing the computer all day trying to day trade.
Thats impossible for the small guys like us unless there are some very strong downfalls which tend to happen occassionally.
Listenand read to what Mascu has wrote as thats the facts and the truth. The last thing i do is sit and watch the mkt every day , i have my other bussiness,s to attend to and the SET is just a profitable hobby. BUY HOLD and BUY MORE if they dip just as long as you arte trading stocks with high volume turnovers and decent BV and PE etc. Iook at oppenning if i get the chance and always look after mkt to see who the buyers and sellers were (very important) and there is one golden egg there staring you in the face to guide which way the mkt is heading and ime not giving that one away my friend,the only thing i will say we should have a rosy end to the year on the SET so dont bottle out and dont stare at the computer watching the ticker go around all day,as that will get you nowhere ,)
Part 1:
JON: It amazes me that you cite KSL as a big winner. You called it at 12.70 which translates to 5 after the split, it dropped to 3.50 (-30%) by which time anyone who had bought in would have been long gone; then I posted that it was poised to recover very quickly and it more than doubled. Anyone that holds all the way down to -30% should not be claiming victory because the stock recovered.
There is nothing wrong with picking a dud in good faith, BTS (-25%), KSL (-30%), ITD (-20%), AQUA (-20%), TH (-85%) and more, all dropped virtually from the day they were called, but they could all be justified by news, rights or moving sentiment even if those reasons failed to pan out on the ticker. There is nothing wrong with any of that.
You ask why I keep bringing up UMI, so I will tell you. I bought a few UMI simply on the strength of your call, out of confidence from some of your other good calls; there you go, should be flattered. Then it started diving and I took a 3-5% loss within days by which time I had done my own research and bolted. But I kept an eye on it and recovered my small loss into a small profit after it had dropped from 7.40 to 2.30. I posted about all of this at the time, so it is on record. No big deal either way, we win and lose.
But as I began to look into your UMI claims none of it made sense, and over the next two years you continued to volunteer bits of information that made even less sense. For example, you sold at prices it never reached, and boasted about making huge profits on what you later admit you knew was a scam; this means either that you are a very lucky person or you knew something, to buy at the start of the spike and sell at its peak, or even higher as you claim, which I have never heard before. As for it reaching 30, that’s another story and you may be just mistaken. Then you ‘saw patterns’ that never existed, you claimed an UMI investment was about to mature when it is clear from every source that UMI’s investments are as weak and fruitless as the rest of UMI. You held on after ‘accidentally’ doubling up instead of selling but didn’t sell when you realised your mistake, and you knew it was a scam stock when you tipped it – even though it took you two years to volunteer that information. But most important, when I cautioned the board - several times - that UMI is a dead duck, you continued plugging it as it dived. Others can draw their own conclusions, as I have drawn mine.
As for day trading, some people make it work and others pretend it works because they refuse to face the truth. Unless you really know what you’re doing forget it, don’t even try to buck the numbers, they will destroy you.
Part 2:
JON: If you wish to leave that’s up to you, it’s a free country, but that is also a childish way to resolve an issue.
ITD: With few exceptions my rule book says to leave a stock at around -10%. But for ITD I have increased my position substantially (avg 4.24) because it looks like the tree is being shaken to generate fear. I do not expect others to follow my lead, this is purely my view based on fundamentals that give a positive outlook, and if it drops more I will buy more.
I would also like to suggest for the benefit of the board, and particularly for newbies, that instead of simply posting a one-word stock symbol with means absolutely nothing, though it is quite common here, the poster should give reasons why he is calling the stock. For example, it may be news, profit targets, a buyback or whatever else to give others a start in researching for themselves if they are attracted. It doesn’t need to be a dossier, though that would be nice, just a line or two to establish that it wasn’t picked out of the ether on the off chance of an ego trip by picking a winner, because one person’s ego trip can cost other people money. As I said before, one reason for this is to help novices. From my own experiences as a newbie some twenty-plus years ago, I remember a string of painful losses by throwing money at stocks simply because somebody called it. Doesn’t hurt to add a line or two, friends, we’re all here to make money not to give it away, and today’s novice may mature to benefit others if he hasn’t lost all his money by then. Please offer your thoughts on this.
i made around 500k on KSL the stock split but it cost me close to a million to achieve that, i bought it again twice and sold it twice within a month after,thats where my earnings came from i kept buying right at the bottom or close too SVI was the same deal 3 times AH was a great call which went up quicker and further than i expected BSL ive never lost on and only won,i am holding it now til iy surpasses 10 bht and what great dividends it has paid, Last years profits were mainly oil related as i saw the double dip at 26 dollars a barell and sold ptsgc irpc ptg at a fantastic gain along with ptt with a good gain but less per centage.i am nothing to do with any boiler room scemes and i hate anyone that is and thats the part that has pissed me off at the shear hint of me being part of one. i got graet profits out of UMI 3 times from the 3 bht average up,i sold half my stk at 12bht but meant to sell my other half remaing i got lucky and bought by mistake,i dont lie and i certainly make money at this and for anyone to advise to sell the set on a mear 10 per cent dip is a complete idiot as your own brokers are perfectionists on wild swings to shake the idiots off which think they are proffessional traders,which they are not.I simply found out the news on UMI in the bussiness post at some stage last year. i believe it was nothing to do with the major shareholders of it and when it took over (only to sell it back ) RCI then it looked positive to me and the headlines afterwards were UMI quuen of the tiles.ITD will come good eventually just buy more on dips like i do,ime also down on that too but my average is rapidly dropping and thats what i do,ie i sometimes ind
tend to invest around 250k in each stk but many times finish up with a million or so in just 1 stock and ime yet to be beat on it. Of course i am holding some losers in my portfolio but like i said i dont sell losers i buy more. I waited many years for MALLEE to come back on after getting delisted and look at it now. Every stk at some stage will make you a profit if you are patient and dont bottle out and sell like most scaredys do. Listen to the likes of Mobias etc who also says dont sell,just buy more ,) get the message guys. When i call,it doesnt mean its gonna go up overnight but the likes of AH and PTG more or less did but they have fell on deaf ears,i suppose you missed the boat on AUCT to which made a big climb from the bottom when i called it, guess what,i sold nr the top and just waiting for it to come below 7 and ime in again. IU also called a firm 33bht dollar and chances are now that could be a 32 by the end of the year,everyone disagreed (not on this blog site) but there you go I WAS RIGHT, and traded the money mkt accordingly. Next is gold at 1320 then i will sell out of that too ,) G nite guys. like you say,most of you will be long gone because you put a stop loss there and in the SET it doesnt work i was skooping up KSL at the bargain basement and sold as soon as all the brokers advised to buy which of course the sheeple did and i sold ,) STA is looking interesting on another note so if you buy and it drops 20 per cent double up ,)
I never said i sold Umi at 30. i said 6 12 and 24bht.
PTG i sold 6 12 18 24 and 28 it went right to 33 that made me around 700k.Dont dispute and dont critisise and and dont just pick up on peoples mistakes,praise them for the good advice whoever it may be. Dont even hint that ime a scammer or boiler room trash as i hate all of that shit ,i knew 2 of those horrible bastards and one died in Pui a certaing mr Glendon Bullard (google him) and the other one Toby who was gunned down in Pattaya, bith deserved what they got.
Dont call me liar too whast i made is exactly what i made and i am proud of myself. You only lose when you sell at a loss and i guess all you guys have a negative portfolio ? i dont its still very positive because i keep diving in on the dips just like today ITD AQUA and STA to lower my averages all 3 of them are down but not by far and if they drop again, i will as always BUY MORE if you use a stop loss on the SET you need your heads testing as your brokers will clean you out when they see your habits,they are shadowing everything you do.So by sitting everyday behind a computer watching the ticker going every single trade you make WILL go the oppisite way. If you are gonna do that, buy or sell the whole market as there is a golden clue staring you right in the face that is rarely wrong. Guess what,ime not going to share that info with anyone ,) Now is buying time by the way and look for a 32 bht $ by year end i first called 33 but its there already ,) Think this will be my last blog but occassionally may take a peek to see what rants and raves you have and just sit back and laugh at you . I think ive played my part in this blog and no one came even close to PTG ,) I SAW IT , I CALLED IT AND I PLAYED IT and i told EVERYONE ,) nobody i know bought it though ,)
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