Stocks discussion No.8 - 2017
Welcome to Stocks discussion No.8 - 2017
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posted by scrt4u @ Friday, August 04, 2017
45 Comments
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45 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.8 - 2017". Please post your questions or stock picks here.
Kouhou Nakamura posted:
Please be careful with ITD, because as a trained accountant, their debt load is not sustainable even with a large backlog. I predict they will need to recapitalise in the near future which will dilute the shares and drag the price down further.
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Thanks for that, Kouhou, must confess I messed up by not looking closely enough at ITD before committing. JON called it at 5.35, I didn't like it at first but it looked better value as it started dropping, then I ignored the significance of such a sharp drop and entered around 4.40, and then compounded both errors by setting aside discipline to lower my average to 4.20s.
Got it completely wrong.
No problem Dee, happy to give my 2 cents.
I'm watching KCE closely, there are 2 factors I'm tracking, copper prices and the baht in the short term. When these 2 reverse from current course, KCE will look like a strong buy at some point.
PTG, looks like the shareprice is adjusting to more normalised growth patterns, they have an excellent track record but bit too pricey for me unless it gets to sub 15 baht. The pattern follows similar to BIG which has also collapsed when growth starts to tail off.
Aqua, some bullish factors including likely earnings recovery in their sub EPCO this year and also possible listing of their storage business which retail punters love.
Defensive dividend stocks, banking KTB at 17 will look like a bargain. BBL sub 170 will start to look good. Will be looking To buyback Intuch again if it drops to sub 57 baht.
Samart, stay well clear as SIM earnings may drag them into a full year loss. I still positioned myself in Samtel with cost of 11.4 baht.
Turnaround plays, DEMCO has been on my radar last 12 months, 2 catalysts are the listing of WEH which is worth 2 baht per share value to DEMCO and also earnings recovery once they move past the foundations issues at HB wind farm. I'm adding to this position at 5.8 baht. They will have some short term pain with expected loss in Q2 but you have to be a bit forward looking here.
BJCHI, my major headache here, still holding 20% of my original investment so loss is small but down 30% YTD. Any comments on BJCHI? Outlook looks bleak and I may have to cut my losses on this one before it goes to 2'baht.
Wow, KCE has really taken a hammering, will be interesting to see their earnings this quarter.
Are the retail punters abandoning PTG? Will look interesting if it can fall another 5-10% but the competitive landscape for retail oil is very high which is squeezing their business, shareprice chart starting to look like a Christmas tree.
Aqua seems to have stabilised in the high 60s...could this be the bottom? Will be interesting to see Q2 earnings report.
Quite a steep sell off in Intuch this morning on the back of a lacklustre earning report, down 6% from its recent high. But the yield is looking decidedly average now they've cut the AIS payout ratio by 30%.
Any other thoughts? Would be good to keep this thread active so we can share ideas...
Kouhou Nakamura, please submit your google id (gmail), which will not display publicly. I will add your gmail in the contributors (see upper right corner of the webpage) and your posts will disply after you click "publish your comment" immediately (no awaiting moderation).
Dee, great points from the previous months. Thank you for looking out for the quality of the discussions here.
I actually want to discuss about "averaging cost" when the direction has gone downwards. Question what we know about this theory. Is this just an excuse to make ourselves feel better that we have reduce the severity of our mistake? For example. A stock drops from 10(A) to 8(B). We buy at 8(B), the stock drops further to 7(C), to reduce the loss percentage and to increase the profit when the stock does return, the "averaging method" person buys more. As it drops more, this person continues to buy more, until ideally the stock does turn around and rises to 8(D), and there's the profit. By then, we have 8+7+6=21 And sold 24.
But we all have to admit, it doesn't always return upwards.
My new method now is, stop loss immediately when the direction is going the other way. Stocks have a direction, it's never zig zag. It's either up, down, or still balancing. Keep it simple, when stocks goes up, buy without fear, keep sitting on it until you see a clear sign that it's changing directions. Many people tend to fall into the trap of selling too early when the stock direction is actually going up. We are so patient with a losing stock, but we are not patient with a winning stock and want to get rid of it so eagerly. Why?
Back to my previous example. When we buy at 8(B), and it continues to fall, we immediately stop loss and sell at 7.5. Incurring a loss of 0.5 MAXIMUM. We completely stopped something negative. We don't respect, pamper, or be patient with the loser. We get rid of it immediately. When one day, the knife stops falling, and there is a clear direction change for the positive direction, we enter at 6.3x3= 18.9
Then we sold it at 24. Profit 5.1 compared to the top post profit 3. My main point is not the difference in the profit. My point is, we need to take control. My second method, you take control of your loss = minimize and end it. Once we wait until the knife has stopped dropping and changed direction, we get in. We have control of our profit. Down=Out Up=In. Simple.
Averaging is like praying for a miracle to happen to your past sins. It never explains why we loss in the pass. As Kouhou Nakamura has said, we must learn from our past mistakes. Try my 2nd method, if used on the past mistakes, it explains how much money you could have save and become a better investor. The 1st method (averaging), it's like praying at a temple. No control.
(Below are just directions, not advice or fundamentals recommendations)
KCE -
At current point, atleast about 3 months or longer until direction may change.
PTG -
Will be a very long journey downwards.
AQUA -
KTB -
If it changes direction upwards, probably requires 1-2months.
BBL = Hold if you haven't sold yet. Unclear at this point. Above 184.5 may signal uptrend. 178.5 and below, get out. Wait until falling knife is over.
SAMART = May go uptrend 40% or downtrend 60% in 2 weeks time.
SAMTEL =+ Interesting. Wants to explode upward in big momentum with bottom line at 12.5. Possible target 14+. If breaks below 12.5, be cautious and consider cutting loss. The upward momentum could happen anyday now, keep a close daily watch.
DEMCO -
BJCHI - While we can't predict when the uptrend will happen, it's never wrong to exit first and cut loss. When it's time to enter again, there is plenty of time for profit. The above stocks with -, I would say sell and cut loss immediately because the direction is downward and will still continue to go downwards based on current observations. I will not say how long BJCHI will drop, but it will continue to drop. It hasn't even reached a point of balance yet, so we are looking at 3-4 months of no entry yet.
INTUCH -= Falling but with some difficulty. Probably wait 1-2 weeks and decide again.
Sorry to the late discussions guys, been a busy month lately. :)
Thanks, Mascu and Kouhou, makes a lot of sense, sometimes it helps to have something that we intuitively know reinforced by having it spelled out. I lost the plot with ITD, as mentioned in my post last Friday, but it didn't feel right so I reconsidered over the weekend and bailed out on Monday. Took a bigger loss, but it feels much safer on the path.
BBL: I would like it to drop a bit, but stable long term buy and wouldn't be surprised if it lurches 40-50% over the next 12-15 months.
And let's not overlook CPF, CPAll, MAKRO, TRUE from the Chearavanont stable: no fireworks, but 20-25% + a decent divi over the next year is reasonable. Billionaires generally know what they're doing.
Nice weekend to all.
Kouhou Nakamura, an invitation email has been sent to your gmail box, please accept it and you will be one of the authors who can publish posts without any moderation.
Mascu, your method is great. Easy to remmerber: downtrend,out; uptrend, in. It's that simple. Just as I always advised, stop loss when it's still small.
I think out of the 4 CP companies' only CPF is worth a look in. True is a basket case loaded with debt and only recapitalising has kept the debt in check. Makro and CPALL look close to fully valued with little upside. The minimarts retail segment is intensifying over the next 5 yrs so I don't think there is much upside.
Bought some more Intuch today at 55.5 even though it went XD.
It is interesting to look at technicals vs fundamentals when investing, I tend to be fundamentals first and then look at technical patterns.
Like Samart as an example has had many upward headfakes on optimism, but the fundamentals were always very bearish and now the market has finally caught up with Samart.
Unfortunately at the moment, banks I will give -.
KBANK -
BBL -
MAKRO - Used to be my superstar 5 to 8 years ago. Until cp took over, it's earnings got affected.
CPF + Might be something. Agree with Kouhou, this is the only one I would consider even buying out of the 4.
CPALL =
TRUE - Down down down.
INTUCH - Looks scary, just the start of the fall.
SAMART - Down
PTT + Very weak bull, but it's holding. I'm still holding too, but it's very close to the edge of the thin line. Will keep a close watch.
AOT + Fundamentals +10% compared to previous year. May enter a few tomorrow if it's going upwards.
MEGA + Fundamentals +20-30% compared to previous year. May enter tomorrow as well depending.
BEAUTY + Those who already entered, can continue to wait and see the rise. However, those looking to enter now, remember to weight on the risk vs reward. Always invest when reward is much greater than risk. I already entered, so will hold and enjoy the show.
One thing people talk about here is trend trading and stop losses. I'm of the view that if you buy fundmentally strong firms then it is just good value to buy at lower prices. Take PTTEP for example, my pttep portfolio has gone from a loss of 33% to a gain of 45% in the last 2 yrs. had I panick sold at the lows I would have lost 250K baht. Ditto for PTT and PTTGC but with lesser volatility.
These are tools we use to our advantage. 10 years ago, I was a fundamental investor as well. I looked down on the gambling technical chart "boys", who were always looking for the quick wins, but do they last long? It's always about the huge percent gains even though the financial statements looked scary.
But we must never turn a blind eye. We use all the resources and knowledge before us, that makes us better and wiser.
Today, our goal is hybrid, to combine the best of both worlds, the fundamental and technical.
Can we all agree fundamentally strong firms, can suddenly be weak companies incurring losses? If the answer is yes, we proceed to the next level of thinking.
If a company was priced at 200 with 4eps during that year. Next year it became 180 with 4.4eps. (Fundamentals+, Technical-) 3rd year 140 with 2eps. How would you control this scenario? It made sense to a fundamental investor to exit when the eps drop from 4.4eps to 2eps. But by then, he already fell into the trap and loss.
The market is a beast, we can't predict it, we can't control it, we observe it and control our actions. Be being a hybrid investor, you ONLY buy fundamentally sound companies WITH uptrend only. Simple. Controlled.
I've found many fundamentally strong firms before but never invested in it. Why? It doesn't matter if I find a gem or not, what matters is if the market thinks and feels the same way as I do. 5000 years ago in Thailand, when we were all tribal people. If you could pick any land to be yours, where would you pick? We picked some mountain with the best soil for growing food and wouldn't have flooding problems. But nobody cares, people kept selling the mountain lands, they kept buying land in Bangkok. Bangkok land prices kept going up, do we ignore this? Or we use this as an advantage to improve ourselves.
Let's use your PTTEP as you offered.
You first purchased around Nov 2015 at around 74. Dipped to 50ish Jan 2016 with unrealized loss of 33%. Peaked at 100 on Jan 2017 with 35% gains if you did not sell or buy during these years to keep it simple.
14% gains to date.
(Hybrid Investor) Purchased around Nov 2015 at 74. Sold 71.5 on 17Nov2015 due to negative technical direction incurring loss of 3.49%.
Buys back 61 on 16Feb2016 due to positive technical direction. Sold 73.25 14Mar2016 due to negative technical direction incurring gain of 20%.
Buys back 75.75 on 12May2016 positive technical direction. Sold 79 on 02Aug2016 with gain of 4.29%.
Buys back 81.75 29Sep2016. Sold 80.5 10Oct2016 with loss of 1.55%.
Buys back 88.5 01Dec2016. Sold 94.5 18Jan2017 with gain of 6.77%.
Buys back 93 31Mar2017. Sold 95.5 20Apr2017 with gains of 2.68%.
28.7% Gains to date.
Morale of the story is, we need to enforce control on our investments. We do not wish or pray for our investments to go in the right direction some day in the future.
Invest when the market is going in the positive direction, stop loss when the market is going down. Stop loss doesn't mean we are a failure, it means we want to control the maximum amount of money we will ever lose.
In all scenarios, the hybrid investor will not be a failure. Ever asked the question, if the stock you are holding never recovers, how would you proceed from there? Would we want to be the person with -20% unrealized loss? Or the 2-5% loss who admits and has no worries but waiting for the next positive. This is not just PTTEP, it applies to all stocks. This discussion allows us to see how the hybrid investor actually makes us learn our past mistakes. We can take a moment to reflect on our past losses with AQUA or ITD, or etc. If we had become a hybrid investor years ago, would our mistakes suddenly disappear? It will surprise you, it does.
PTT + Looking good.
BEAUTY + Hold, risk much greater than reward to enter now.
MEGA = Waiting for the next move.
AOT = Waiting...
KBANK -
BBL -
MAKRO -
CPF =- Next trading day is very important to determine. It needs a lot of buying, hopefully above 27 to keep it on positive direction.
CPALL -
TRUE -
INTUCH -
SAMART -
AQUA -
ITD -= Interesting hiccup. Not rated at + until we see it break 4.3 or 4.4
GIFT -=
MONO -
PTG -= Interesting hiccup similar to ITD.
BJCHI - Down down down
The problem with your hypothetical theory is that it is easy to make profits with the benefit of hindsight. Your hypothetical trades could have made 30%, 40% or even 50% why stop at 20%.
My story is a narrative of a long term buy and hold investor. Sure things could go to 0 and I lose everything but that is the risk of investing. I have used stop loss a few times for companies that have deteriorated in the last 5 yrs namely DTAC and a few small caps but I don't use it for every of my ho,dings for the simple fact that some are my core holdings with good fundamentals.
The true secret to wealth creation is not to over trade but to actually utilise the power of compounding returns by reinvesting growing dividends combined with capital growth. Over time returns get magnified.
Don't know where you got 74 baht from? 71 baht was my average cost of my PTTEP portfolio in July, now that cost is up to 77 baht after I purchased some more at 85 baht in August. Average cost is fluid and changes month to month. Next month could be 80 baht who knows?
My average cost for my original purchases was about 64 baht when accounting for reinvested dividends during the last 2 years. Obviously as I sold out at 92-100 baht it pushed my average cost up as the system operates on a FIFO for stock sales.
I have used this same technique with great effect over the last 4 yrs SCC, PTT, PTTGC, IVL, HANA, CPF just to name a few of the big caps I have made significant gains on.
At Last,a breath of fresh air has arrived on this blog, thank you Kouhou ,) Someone who agrees that forget stop losses on the SET ,as you will surely lose as its rated one of the most manipulated markets in the world, check it out. I agree with this guy 100 per cent and totally disagree with Macs,follow his advice and you will surely lose, your own broker will make sure of that ,) The only difference i do from what Koulou doses,I BUY MORE when they drop to lower the average. It works 99 per cent of the time at some stage and i love it when any of my stocks dip to give me a great buying app 9apart from UMI which i am still holding)
Thankyou Kouhou for putting some spice into this blog, it for sure needed it ,)
Hold on, I've never advised against stop losses as it is a fundamental and proven risk minimisation technique along with diversification. I've stopped losses many times on the set with good effect, DTAC and Thcom for example. But I do agree for fundamentally good stocks, price weakness is a great opportunity to lower ones average cost and increase yield at the same time. Reinvesting that yield back into buying more of the stock will further lower the average cost and increase your compounding returns over time.
Remember the old saying time in the market will beat timing the market in the long run.
Kouhou, the reason I didn't use the 30-50% profit is because I took the time to do actual trades with the data available on the chart. We are not here to brag about %, thus by using 20%, you can understand the purpose of my previous post. I am not a pure technical investor. One of the problems with this world, is when we differentiate by groups. Whether it's religion, political views, or etc. I use the wisdom of fundamentals and the tools of technicals. Fundamentals are not my enemy. I support both. The 20% gains is from the actual buy/sell due to directional changes. Up=Buy Down=Sell
We all have different views and that's alright, that's why we have discussions. I used to be a long term buy and hold investor as well, but the fact is, any good company in the world, can lose that title. When we say, we could lose everything and accept that is the risk of investing. Sure we can. But we can choose not to as well, I choose not to. I choose to control loss. When I make that decision, I minimize the risk of investing by selling when the direction is going downwards. I'm not talking about day to day buy/sell gambler, I'm talking about long term directional change.
All of my holdings are strong fundamentals, will they stay this way forever? Of course not, and how will we control loss? That is the question we should be asking, and working towards with.
Pardon the 74 baht example, it was used with only reference from the 33% unrealized loss to a gain of 45%, that you have provided. I don't have the exact data from your portfolio. For easier comparison, we use the initial purchase price. If we are to consider the averaging cost, the technical investor can do the same with even greater returns. So we keep calculations simple by "Buy and hold principle" vs "Directional buy and sell".
If a cup of coffee is full, then it's full. No doubt about it. But if your cup is half full, and there is room for progress. This is an alternative thought. If you would like, I can work with you on any particular stock you like and compare the results. We have the pricing data available.
Jon, we're not interested in what you are trying to stir.
everyone has a differing investment philosophies which is why it is good to share ideas so we may learn something that could be of value to us. I'm just giving my opinion that trend trading is not for me and rarely have I made much profit by following the daily or weekly fluctuations in a shareprice.
In fact the number of times in my younger days where I would buy a share that has gone up in hopes of reaping gains from an upwards direction only to see the share fall back down again and then I sell and cut loss only to see that share rise up again. Highly frustrating...
MASCU i am not stirring anything just adding to the mix, you do it your way Khohou does it his way and i do things my way.
i talk about the SET only and like i said it is very high on the worlds list of manipulation and in my opinion your way of trading is the most risky of the 3 on this particular mkt.
your advise on PTG was it was on a certain downwards spiral,my advice was it was time to by again at around 16bht so who was right and who was wrong.Like an idiot , listened to you and didn't buy it and right now its shot right up in price.)
so don't accuse me of stirring anything,ime in the mkt to make money and i NEVER sell losers only winners and that can take time in some cases, so don't go leading people down the wrong road by telling them to have a stop loss on the SET as you will quickly run your followers out of money if they listen to that crap. This is the SET and your own brokers are the manipulaters and therefore i simply play with the bank and hold on tight and in most cases buy more if they drop below 20 per cent and may track record has proved me absolutely correct. If i do see doom and gloom ahead in the short term i have been known to sell the whole port like i did 2 years ago and bought everything back in the sharp dip that followed.
When you say we are not interested are you referring to everybody as if you are, then let the others speak out and don't try to be the controller as what you say is dangerous to some of the less experienced investors.So stop trying to be a manipulator yourself . Everyone has their own way of doing things so let it be. Kouhou makes much more sense than you do. BUY in dips , not when the stock goes up SELL on rallies, if not then you will be like most of the steeple and certainly lose my friend. ,)
JON, your words contradict with what you have said. As Dee has pointed out earlier last month, and I went to see the points he has given, it is all very solid evidence against you. Allow any stranger to read this forum or post this on youtube, and we can see the comments.
When your opinion of other's trading methods is the most risky, that's good to know. But in order to progress as an individual, you provide evidence, that your trading method is less risky than mine. As stated earlier, we use real evidence and pricing, these are available. Boasts without solid evidence falls to deaf ears = scammer. As discussed last month.
PTG for the record was on a downward spiral, with the stated timestamps available. Are you questioning that? Black can't be proven white. The actual question is, Jon, please go ahead and quote your PTG advice of buy it at 16bht. Go ahead please. Let us see. Your not an idiot for not buying it, but a contradiction of self. You claim to be so anti-technical, yet wished to buy at the "right time" of 16bht. If I was a fundamental investor, the last month, 19 seems a fair price. If you couldn't accept that, and wanted instead the golden timing of 16 to 18.9? Contradiction.
To be fair, if it indeed is the positive trend now, it is not too late. It's actually just the beginning heading towards 21.5 and above. Why the rush? What happened to the pro-fundamental? Contradiction.
Never sell losers. Wow.
Don't go telling people to have a stop loss? Never, I'll keep promoting stop loss and let investors know they can control their losses to a minimum.
Buy more if they drop below 20%? 19 dropped to 16.2 isn't 20% yet. Contradiction.
If you saw doom and gloom in the short term, you have been known to sell everything 2 years ago, that selling must be a huge profit. "Never sell losers."
We = everyone in this forum.
Dee has spoken. I have spoken. Dee and me are in no way related, but with mutual respect for everyone in this forum. Others will speak soon if they feel like it.
Buy when the direction is going up, Sell when the direction is going down.
Cheers
Kouhou Nakamura, timing the market certainly can pay especially with the abrupt movements. I find technical direction more useful now, as opposed to the daily changes. It's also a good idea to check who the buyers and sellers are on those days. Institutions, retails, foreigners, etc. The bigger trucks will take more time to buy/sell their shares compared to the little motorcycle investors.
Added a significant stake in Intuch today at 54.25. Yield looking very attractive at these levels. Looking to add more if can drop further as I want to buy back the stake I sold at B60.25.
Also added some Samtel at 12.3 and 12.4. Added some more Aqua at 0.66.
PTTGC is a headache, got out at 68.25 now 10% higher...
guys,i am in the stk mkt to purely make money which i have managed to do every year since i jumped back in again around 1000 points. i am not a liar and certainly not a scammer and my average return for the last 6 year is 1 million bht (profit).
Ime more interested in (like Kouhou) about the end of day,to find out exactly whos been buying and selling as that is very important and if you see for a few that the individuals have been the net buyers and foreighners for example are sellers,then for sure the market is heading down. More importantly is when the directors are buying there own shares as that tells me a BIG story for the future ie PTG AH etc etc both of which sky rocketed but of course you forget about the good ones i have tipped and only mention losers BUT that doesnt mean they wont be winners in the future. i Definately dont reccomend buying when going up and selling when going down,in fact i advise the opposite because as you sell the institutions will immediately buy and vice versa and a 20 per stop loss is complete bullshit in the Thai stock mkt as ive said it before and i will say it again its one of the most manipulated markets in the world. 29 years of my life over here and 20 in the mkt ive seen so many losers that sit in the brokers buying and selling and the people the other side of the counter at your stock brokers are paid to make sure that you lose and the only way to beat them is by playing with the bank,) do you really think they are sat there making profits out of the very small trading fee Well guess what MASCU you are hopelessly wrong and should wake up to the fact and stop advising people to stop loss as i know and you know in this mkt if they do that , they will certainly lose.
If Kouhou didnt just join up,i would have kept away from this blog but this guy knows what he is talking about and put life back into the blog,thankyou for that Kouhou ,)
Jon, stop trying to use Kouhou as your defense wall. He has his own ways of investing that works for him that isn't similar to yours. The only person who thinks that stop loss shouldn't be used is only you. Yes you. Only.
Take a moment and look at the people around you in life, instead of everything coming from your own mindset. Reread what you just wrote. Do you know how that sounds to every reader? You seem to think that you are the only one making money in the stock market year after year and 1 million profit. Should we be clapping? Can we inform you that of our members here, some are making more than that? Which other forum member boasts loudly every single time without evidence and quotes? Go read the posts of this past year. Yes you. When people actually start to investigate your false claims without solid evidence, you become empty.
20% stop loss? Bad advice, I would aim for 2-5% max. By 20%, the tables have already turned and the reward is already higher than the risk.
For your information, the Thai stock market is similar to many markets in this world. You can open a global trading account with the brokers, and you will know what you are talking about better.
Wrong assumption Jon, you are the one who assumed everyone is sitting at the counter and making a loss. Are you saying that everyone who doesn't think like you are losers sitting in the brokers buying and selling? If you think the brokers are making money just by the trading fees, you are more than welcomed to read my comment from July. Stop trying to assume everyone here is losing money and always making the wrong choice. We are the one who are questioning your every words. All our words are backed up, and yours? I'm still waiting for your quote and timestamp as of yesterday, that you still fail to provide and continue to speak without evidence.
Continue to protect losses when the market direction has changed. Promote stop loss. Direction Up=Buy Direction Down=Sell.
thought this blog was for everyones oppinnions including mine ???. Seems like attack Jon time right ???
I hope all of you a making money , i do it my way and my average earnings is 20 per cent a year with no stop loss,i can already make this years alot higher if i sold my winners now but august is not selling time normally. Funny how you just pick up the bits that you choose and not mention the positive things on my posts. I am talking about the SET only when i say dont stop loss, buy more as 3 times (including this one) i have tod you correctly that SET is one of the most manipulating mkts in the world and you should check into that and advise other people like i do. For Sure, i have seen many many people lose many millions by using the stop loss method and i bet there has been a few conected with this blog ,),) My other advice is definately dont day tade this mkt or you will surely lose all.
I am not using Khouhou as my defense but hes has his method which is close to mine except,i buy more on dips on losers.
My best frien is an ex stockbroker for a big company in England and made 25k pm and retired at 40 through his sucessful work,when i show him this blog he just laughs at it especially you Mascu ,) He says exactly the same as me double down on losers and forget all about stop losses in this modern age. He still trades in on the internet and buys and sells full markets just for fun and he still makes shxt loads and i have his full backing on what and how i trade. So if its good enough for a sterling multi millionaire,then its good enough for me ,) Thats how we became friends as we speak the same language and if anyone is a scammer,then its you thats nearer the mark by advising people to have stop losses on the Thai market as for sure we both say YOU WILL LOSE. End of story Have a good day and if you get beat by the SET blame Mascu as his advice is very dangerous on the SET. You all have a good day my friends ,)
How about we get back to talking about stocks. Recommendations and why a stock is worth a look?
AQUA I have drawn attention to it many times after Jon first called it. AQUA is holding a lot of hidden value in their balance sheet that they could realise one day if they divest those assets. By my calculations they have unrealised and unbooked gains from their 38% stake in EPCO to the tune of 1.5B baht equivalent to half their market cap.
Also they have approx 400M baht unrealised gains in TCDC which they could unlock if they IPO this company in the near future. Their sum of the parts value of their business is presently 40% higher than what their current market cap implies.
EPCO is planning to IPO their power subsidiary Eastern Power which will enhance their balance sheet position and also bring in a nice wind fall for AQUA as their largest shareholder.
You see it is up to you the investor to do due diligence on an investment, not just because someone on a forum called out the stock..I have studied the last 5 annual reports for AQUA before finally taking a position in this company.
Exactly Kouhou,bang on the button and the fact the directers bought their own stock (AQUA) leads me to believe there is going to be something very positive sooner or later and sometimes it takes time but when it comes , it climbs very quickly and ive used my own eyes to see what AQUA are doing just like i did with PTG and CPALL.I have a very strong position in AQUA and still continue to buy ,) good night all.
oh iforgot to mention AH which i called and it doubled in no time,again that was a case of directers buying their own stock and look at it fly now ,)
Jon do you have the history of management purchases by Aqua executives? I can't seem to find it on the management trades website over at SEC.co.th
i use ASP (ASIA PLUS) type in fast quote and that way you should find everything. Every company that directers buy or sell must be reported to the SET everyday and published to the public and thats how i find most of my winners by digging deep to see what directers are buying in or selling,then i go and do my own research as i travel all the time and can forcast what is going to happen in the future , take PTG as an example i saw the management buying in every day around 3bht i travelled and noticed so so many new gas pumps sprouting up and the rest is history,similar to CPALL and AH.
You do need to dig deep as this method creates some large winners and thats how i cut corners and jump straight in. they were buying AQUA at 0.70 plus, it shot up to 0.90 plus and some people bought it at that and blame it on me,i called it at 0.70 plus too and still continue to buy and my average is 0.67 at the moment.Highly unlikely any broker will keep you informed about management purchases but for sure it has to be updated and reported to the SET on exactly how many and exactly how much. BLAND was another perfect example.
Hope this is helpful to you and it wasthe begginning of the year when AQUA management were buying and right out side my condo is a massive AQUA promotion sighn and if you travel in BKK you will see hundreds of them sprouting up and that my friend is my method of seeking winners but not every stock goes up as quickly as AH and PTG did.Hope that is helpful and i hope you can find yhe info ,)
more positive news for PTG they have bought in heavily to Autobacs which is positive for sure next up will be a link up with a top minimart chain, my guess now it could be family mart or cpall as PTT are not extending many more contracts with 7-11 and with PTG now in second place on the gas stations a quick jump from 5th then it looks to be all going in the right direction. I missed the boat for 2 reasons i was going in at 16 ish but saw MASCUS recomadation that it was slowly but surely going down so i waited for it to slide bewlow 15 bht which i dont think it did. I can only blame my self as i normally do the opposite to anyones advices especially the stock brokers. The blame is only on myself and i certainly hope it comes tumbling down so that i can get in as 16bht - 19bht is a hefty gain already and like i said before i only buy on dips ,)
I've been reading this blog for years but never contributed. You can say a silent watcher. It's only a month or two since some interesting conversations started. For
Kouhou , here is the link to check the Insider Buy/Sell.
http://capital.sec.or.th/webapp/corp_fin/daily59e.php
You can check based on company name or by any time period also.
Jon, I too bought AH after seeing the insider buys. But then I bought TFG warrants too based on that but that has turned out to be a dog. Eventually it'll go up so I sit patiently and wait.
In my experience, investing in 10 stocks. 1- 2 will be massive winners (2-4 times your money), 2-3 small gainers ( 30-60% gain), 2-3 will make a small loss or go nowhere and the last 1 or 2 will lose 50% or more. I'm talking medium term holding not buy/sell or trading.
Some will look at the loss and say : why didn't you cut loss ? The simple reason is that I work for a living. I'm not glued to the screen so sometimes we miss the sell signal. ( Maybe in a meeting or whatever). Same way we may miss the buy signal. That's why I need to be invested in whatever I want to buy way before it makes a sharp or sudden move as I may not be able to catch it then.
Keep waiting Jon.
PTG + The boat just started, and it's not going to end soon. Don't get tricked by Jon.
Typical scammer, needs to bring in a credible person to back the false claims. So this best friend of yours. Have a name? Which broker company? We can ask around and verify.
Like I said, we're still waiting for your claims and timestamp dates. And your accusation of my recommendations on PTG is very low blow. As stated, with reference time available, these are directions and not recommendations. Jun's point of reference for date, was indeed going downwards. Go back and read last month's forum liar.
PTT+
ADVANC+
KBANK+ Seems banks are heading positive now. Those wishing to enter banks may keep a close watch these few days.
AQUA=-
AH=-
Stop loss when the direction is going downwards. Get in again when the direction is up. Control your losses and let your gains fly.
Kouhou,
Your earlier mention of KTB. Today the direction has changed positive. You may consider and look at it these few days. Now would be the time to collect, if the direction holds.
whats your excus for KCE the MASCU as you said wait 3 months and it directly up as soon as you mentioned that,in fact look at all of what you said especially PTG,and your advice on stop loss is dangerous to people that take your advice as ive tol you many times on the SET this does not work and if the poor people that you advising take any notice of you , then for sure,they are going to lose. Take today for instance, FOREIGHNERS, INSTITUTIONS and PROPRIETRY were all net but,only the local invesaters sold and that my friend,sums it up how this mkt works and oh , dont forget i did call gold was heading for 1320 ,) and my ESSO is now 80 per cent up. Just waiting on AQUA and you know nothing about how the Thai stk mkt works whatsoever and i guess you are a born loser ????? For you people out there that listen to MASCUS advice, i feel sorry for u all as this man is nothing sahort of a scammer and full of BS. Just wait and see ,)
Hes probably on a kick back from atleast one of the brokers who all called a flat mkt. ,)
I choose to win and in the end,i always do,follow MASCU and you will certainly lose.
Have a good night all of you and be careful of taking any chances on any of MASCUs advice.I have warned you , so go down the road you think best and bollox to his satop loss losd of shite. Kick me off the website if you want, i really dont care but I WIN ,)
PTG yet again MASCU I called it you said it was on the highway to hell slow but sure. If anybody out there on this blog listens to this guy,they will certainly lose especiallwith his stupid stop loss he keeps ranting on about/ Remember this is Thailand and this does not apply to the SET as there are many wild swings and if you happen to be a day trader (i am not) then by using MASCUs stop loss method,you wo\ill slowly but surely run ot off your hard earned money, i have seen it happen to many.
No one has tipped a higher winner than me on this blog and yet again i have to mention PTG which i called at 3 bht and it went right up to 33bht. No one has come anywhere close to that.
MASCU only mentions ones of mine that i am still waiting to bear fruit and will but he loves attacking and think hes the genius of the blog. Hes not and he doesnt have a clue about how the SET really works. Thats why i suspect he may be working with the brokers to purposely make you lose.
wait and see and look back on his posts, nothing to brag about there. Buy if it drops buy more and more importantly be patient and dont panic and that is the way to beat the bookies who are in fact your stockbrokers. Admit it guys and gals,how many times have you bought and the stock imediately gone down and when you sell it will immediately go up, well let me know the secret, its ,) your own broker making sure of that.) you had better believe that ,)
ERM MASCU, what was that crap you said about don't listen to Jon and PTG ,),),) you talk crap mate and thats one of the most positive stocks on the MKT has been for 3 years or so and still plenty of growth you haven't got a clue. 16BHT you were advising to sell and i was advising to buy and now its around 21bht so as always your advice is full of crap and you have stopped people making a large profit with your stupid remarks ,) guess what, I DIDNT LISTEN but bought a bit higher than i had targeted.
Hopefully this is the lsst post of this months blog and more to to the point MASCU the loser keeps his mouth firmly closed ,)
G-Night
Jon
This thread is closed. Please move to "Stocks discussion No.9 - 2017"
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