Stocks discussion No.7 - 2008
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.7 - 2008".
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SAM: This stock seems a "sleeping" black horse.
The close price on 31 July 2008 -> Baht 1.45
Let's see if its price can double, triple or more
within 3~5 years.
If we forget, please remind us of this blind guess.
GOLDMAN SACHS & CO holds 4.3 million shares now, waiting for its wake-up!
The close price on 31 July 2008 -> Baht 1.45
Let's see if its price can double, triple or more
within 3~5 years.
If we forget, please remind us of this blind guess.
GOLDMAN SACHS & CO holds 4.3 million shares now, waiting for its wake-up!
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posted by scrt4u @ Wednesday, July 02, 2008
92 Comments
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92 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.7 - 2008". Please publish your stock picks or questions here.
JAS / JAS-W / JAS-W2
sell sell sell, SET will down down down!!
buy buy buy everday and profit later. keep pouring money everday and make billions, SET is on a SUPER MID YEAR SALE! WOW SALE LOVE IT!
SET: has not broken (down) the triple support (connect the 3 lows: 17/08/2007; 24/01/2008; 20/06/2008). If the support line breaks, sell or reduce your position.
JAS: looking good. The British and German money keep it strong. Good luck.
ZMICO: looking over-sold. If you like, you can buy some with tight stop. Good luck.
hmm good bargain tdy!
buy some PTTEP, KBANK & TTA @closing price & sell tomrw if market rebound!
ueda
NWR never been so low...is it worth holding (avg .65) or does it look like it's on the way out for good?
TTW keep rockin baby :)
ueda
To Anonymous,
NWR: write down your bad feelings, like "running out of patience", anxiousness, hopelessness, etc. and put it away in a good place.
If I keep adivsing you to hold, the major players will go on smashing down the price untill they accumulate enough cheap chips. Now it seems they do not have enough shares.
If I advise you to cutloss, you will loose 50% of your principal.
Maybe you can take a compromised way, namely, sell half of your position. One half for long term hold (togher with the piece of paper that you write down your bad feelings at the moment); the other half you may use to buy other good stocks. Is this OK to you?
The major players will go on smashing down the price until they accumulate enough cheap chips. Now it seems they do not have enough shares. --> I totally agree with this 100% .
Go back and look at the charts for IEC / LIVE /SSE (previously DE). Even with PTT its IPO was 35 baht; and it was kept below that for a very long time; until most minor shareholders have lost hope; and sold their shares.
Look at what's happening to RS/PAE/PTTAR now - these companies always have something good hidden; but the major players always want to get as much shares as possible back before starting a rally.
Recent example was KASET - for over 3 years their prices didn't go anywhere; and then it rallied for over 700%.
In the SET most stock prices do not go up and down according to normal market movements, there is always someone handling the shares.
Now it is too late to cut loss; and lose 50% . Hold it; I'm sure one day you will profit greatly from it; think of it as a long term investment - better than keeping cash in the bank where you get negative interest rates.
Open another portfolio with your broker; and request this stock to be moved into it; and don't look at it until you see NWR on the top gainer list :)
Guys, THL has a very good support on its trend line - I suggest start accumulating .
-XnX
To -XnX,
Thank you very much for your great post.
So many of my friends who regret they did not take my advice to buy BBL when it was only 25 baht something. They regret after 10 years.
If you had invested 1 million bahts on BBL when it was about 25 bahts 10 years ago, your investment would have increased to over 5 million bahts now. It can beat the inflation and better than putting your money in the bank. There are so many "IFs", so many regrets!!!
scrt4u,
When I started trading August 2007; BBL was already 113 :( ; but its never too late...I still think there are lot of stocks that are below 10 baht in the market - but have potential of going to hundreds though.
Have seen live from 4 baht to 40 baht (after split) - within less than a year; searching for the next one ;)
-XnX
If you invested in BBL 20 years ago and still held it SCRT4U you would still be in loss buddy so jsut dont pick the bottom and talk, BBL has been over 300.
BBL @ 300 was at Par 100.00
Now the Par is 10.00 / therefore your sharers would have split 1:10.
Thus 20 years ago BBL was 30 baht - considering the dividends you have received over 20 years - your shares would have cost 0 .
Just had a look at the chart; BBL's highest point was 260 in 1996.
20 years ago; 1988 BBL was 23 - 32 baht.
XnX - thanks for your input...let's see if the big hands can hold NWR in the 30s for long enough to force me out.
I can wait forever, let's see if they can.
Morgan Stanley & Co 15.56%
Mr. Pollapat Kannasoot 11.61%
Thai NVDR Co.,ltd. 6.61%
Mr. Suchat Arreekul 4.59%
Italian-Thai Development Plc. 4.05%
Total percentage by all thess top 5 shareholds is only 41.99%
The percetage is not enough for the bighands. They have to force some retailers to cutloss so that they can get enough shares.
If you are determined to hold it forever, the bighands will give up forcing you out.
What Is going on with EMC???? Down 59%...this is second shock in short time after Federer losing to Nadal - INCREDIBLE! Another Black Monday....
EMC: today it seems the price is reset again. Seems some people buy alot at 0.27. So brave!
sell sell sell, SET will down down down again until we see 699!!
agreed scrt4u, someone pile up EMC at closing price...IEC & TUCC also pushed upward, maybe one of these will rebound tomrw
btw need your view THAI, TISCO, THCOM...surely these will give a good return in longrun, just dont know when the best entry time
ueda
ueda
EWC. Trading halt by SET. EWC in trouble because they want to buy UWC and there are complications. Maybe the news can be find in Google Finance e. g.
today many brokers recommended sell & bearish market!!
you know once they all said sell then we can started buy & also the otherway round when they said buy or bullish then we should sell
peter
EMC at this price should be a very good buy; the big hand's cost are around 0.35
EMC: If you think it's a good stock and will not be delisted, you may start buy it. Don't be fully loaded. keep some money for its possible below 10 setang. Because under ground floor there is still 18 floors of hell. During these accumulation process, you can also do the "buy low and sell high". Good luck.
To ueda,
THAI: Crude Oil price keeps going up. This stock is one of the victims of the price increase. I checked its 5 monthly chart. The price is not low enough because this low has not cruel enough for the retailers to cutloss. It's still a falling knife. It seems that the Finance Ministry and Vayupak Fund will do something with this stock. Keep an eye on it. It's worth doing.
TISCO: Seems preparing a rebounce. If you try, stop tight. Good luck.
THCOM: Its weekly chart show it's SKD is nearing its bottom, but its MACD has not reversed. Wait!
GJS: SET down, but this stock seems making a rebounce around the 75 moving average support line.
scrt4u thx!
THAI, company still profitable...eventhough airfare increased, load factor still pretty good. I bought some at 16.8
I did small research AS, this gaming company might report good result moreover they not really affected by oil or inflation, mainly investing on smart creators
one more MAJOR, you can enter when hit 12++
ueda
Ueda / scrt4u / all
Careful about THAI its not nosediving without a reason -- especially in the last week or so.. there is a big reason it has been slapped with a fine of $300mln that 10 Billion baht with a "B" for cargo price fixing -- so in order for it to be worth what it is today it needs to first make back this 10 BILLION first and at the current crude prices and flights cuts just think how feasible is this? long haul NY is gone los angeles and auckland are going soon .. so think carefully ..
just a thought
kofi.
To kofi,
Thanks for your post.
SPALI: It's formed a 2nd low which is higher than the previous one. You may buy some now with stop at 2.82. Good luck.
RS: This stock has formed a horizontal punting platform for 13 trading days. Probably you can accumulat some now, but stop out if the horizontal support line breaks down (namely 1.30) Good luck.
Re: NWR
http://www.pantip.com/cafe/sinthorn/topic/I6781928/I6781928-24.gif
2 M shares purchased today @ .31 buy company directors/owners.
Dear All,
What is going on.. any idea need your view on TRUE,N-PARK and TMB
And.
SET was down bcoz venezuelan win miss universe not thai!
NWR's chart from 05 really looks interesting, lowest of all time.
I cant get infos on the shareholders yet though.
But should be interesting to perform a come-back soon enough.
I'm very interested to go for NWR for a long-term hold.
N-PARK: The lows seems to be in the 0.13-0.14, should stop if it breaks lower than 0.13
IS THIS TIME TO BUY NOW???
Where are you SCRT4U ... our godfather... don't desert us..
And.
if you think this is bad
YOU AINT SEEN NOTHIN YET BABY :)
Sell is best :)
SET: is still like a falling knife. Wait for MACD to "gold cross" to buy.
To And,
True: you should cutloss on 10-11 July 2008 because it broke the support line. Now still in downtrend.
N-Park: in downtrend.
TMB: in downtrend.
actually its pretty obvious - everything is pretty much in downtrend at the moment.
thais bad luck too!
today regional up SET closed, tomrw down then SET down again :)
yes moreover war between thai & cambodias may erupt anytime, not only sell off you should evacuate from thailand too!
I heard there are also mean looking space ships hovering above bangkok...yes that you for that advice, we should all leave right away.
lee
PLE: seems rebouncing. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
Wow looked much greener today!
Is it time to buy or temp only?
sam
personally looks like a technical rebound to me.
15 days record shows that foreigns are culmulative buys from SET 50, but overall still sells.
Enter blue chips if you feel that there'll be no war soon.
...then more of the same...looks like the bleeding hasn't finished because the puppeteers prefer to buy cheaper stock.
lee
There is no war and not going to be any, thailand can never fight, so get a life guys. That temple is of Cambodia and the whole world know that. Just because STUPID PAD stirs up trouble it means nothing. PAD GET OUT!!! Sondhi go to hell and make set go to heaven at 2,000 points.
We love SAMAK and voted for him. and will vote again and again.
In fact thai gov & people here are too soft/sabai2 with PAD, it should be cut off at first before getting bigger while many people depend their income fr daily PAD campaign now.
Better you feel big pain in one time rather than small but pain forever.
Again maybe many thais aint got much things to do hence joined rally with hope to find their love one there, funny isnt it?
With many issues, why should we invest here while other countries looks more promising & stable
james
guys i hope we can talk more stocks not politics here
scrt4u/zorro, need your view on THCOM, STHAI and MAJOR thx!
ueda
To ueda,
THCOM: has been pressing down by the 10 days moving average.
STHAI: It put 10 days, 25 days and 75 days moving average under it, but now it is near the resistance around 1.68. If you have it, reducce position.
MAJOR: It broke the 10days moving average. MACD "gold cross" already. Double bottom! You can buy some with tight stop.
KH: seems formed a horizontal punting platform. If try, stop tight. Good luck.
IEC: while SET keeps going down like a falling knife, IEC has been quietly climbing up and it broke the previous high. MACD "gold cross" already. It's been up along the 10 days moving average.
Q-con: is it preparing a rebounce after drop so much? Wait and see.
MME: interesting. The last trading days showed bigger volume. Cooking? Keep an eye on it. Good luck.
SAM: rebouncing. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
ASIMAR: seems rebouncing from a 2nd higher bottom. If try, stop tight. Good luck.
SOLAR: Its MACD "gold cross". If you try, stop tight. Good luck. :)
STEC: Its MACD already "gold cross". If you buy, stop tight. Good luck. :)
I bought TPIPL (avg 7.40) when it was recommended at its high both here and by Zzzeamico...now 5.50...any hope of a recovery?
I entered NWR when it was 'warming' at .78, bought more when it was recommended again at .55, more at .45 and then all the way down to .35...now it's 60% of my port and even with averaging down it's still showing more than a 50% loss...deep hole but my position is clear - I intend to bail out if it doesn't go green by 4Q13...jingjing
I sold CSP when it broke your suggested 2.50 lpp then it bounced back the same day and has since gone up another 60%...is it worth going back in?
miserable
thx scrt4u, bought a bit MAJOR & THCOM this morning...STHAI seems losing steam, let's see in coming days
ueda
To miserable,
Take a piece of paper and copy your post above and read it in 3-5 years.
TPIPL: yes, there is hope for it to recover and go higher than your cost.
CSP: It took Mr. Market one year and 4 moths to smash its price from Baht 8.85(Oct.2006) to Baht 1.74 19 (7 Feb. 2008). It's almost 80% decrease! Then Mr. Market pump the price from Baht 1.74 to Baht4.00. Up 230%! If you do not have patience, Now the major players have very tight control on the price. It can pump it up as high as they like. I am afraid you will lose money after you buy CSP. It's your fault that you did not chase it after exit. Where are those who laughted at us for this great stock pick now?
NWR: Read my encouraging posts abvove and ...... Can't you hold it for more than 5 years? I am afraid you will forget us when NWR is flying high in future, just like those complained CSP are doing with CSP!!!
If you can find a better free website that can offer you such honest advice on Thai stocks, just tell us and we close our blog.
SAM: We are now recommending this stock as "Black Horse". Do you believe it will go up over over 200% in 1 or two years? Wait and see!
STEC: starting its rally!!!
thoughts many people smiling today & be cautious in coming days!
gain 5% fr MAJOR & hope it will reach 16++ soon once 2ndQ result out.
THCOM, keep for MT
CSP my cost is 6 baht, so just hope it comes up there!
HATE PAD
Finally STEC has started it's rally, still looking forward for it to go as high as 7 as what scrt has recommended.
:) Let's see how far this can go.
And again, it seems like foreigners are starting to dump their money into SET 50 again, you know what to do.
wow RS flying tdy, warrant to the sky!!
who will follow suit??PE, BROOK, UMI, EMC or WIN? happy guessing :)
bought a bit TOP & KBANK tdy
ueda
To ueda,
RS: I told you on 19 July 2008 that it's formed a punting platform as follows:
scrt4u said...
RS: This stock has formed a horizontal punting platform for 13 trading days. Probably you can accumulat some now, but stop out if the horizontal support line breaks down (namely 1.30) Good luck.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008 4:22:00 PM
SAM: I told you this stock will be a black horse. But you have to be very patient. Hold it for long time enough. If not, do not buy it. Don't say I didn't tell you. Good luck!!!
SMM: after reset, it seems that it started a rebounce.
ITD: Its MACD "gold cross".
yea scrt4u, missed your comment...too busy hunting SET50 first :)
ueda
Remember yr last dark horse "EPCO" ? It has gone nowhere since 2 years. Today's price 1.80 = 0.60 x 3 ( share revalued ) which is same as 2 yrs ago. Actually it might go down more but company is now buying back shares.
The most important thing is "dark horse" can only be dark horse if few people know about it. Now Mr Market is not fool to spend money to push up while everyone dumps to him especially now company stock in treasury. Perhaps it will go nowhere another 3 years until everybody gives up.
Stone
As long as political remain unclear, dont expect you gonna make money here even you wait another 3-5years.
You see PAD rallied to PTT this morning, block the roads etc & again we see a weak control & law enforcement by authority here, only know peace peace 555
I m outsider wondering who are PAD & why nobody really dare to stop them if they keep disturbing daily other people life, what a shame!
james
Does anyone here think the PAD leaders aren't shorting SET? - Making bundles they are.
SET: Now the best two stock markets are in Thailand and China after down so much. Don't worry because everyone needs money!
TCC: if you have this stock, use tight LPP. Enjoy!
PM: brokeout. If chase, stop tight.
PE: It's now rebouncing. Could it be a black horse? Probably. Chase with tight stop and several entries so that you get relatively lower cost. Good luck !!!
scrt4u I heard this premier group PE,PM,PT love to manipulate their price for their own benefit so be cautious
Last 2mth i told my friend to cut loss PM when she got IPO price 3.1otherwise she must be crazy now :)
btw need your view AH, BLS & CPN thx & hv a great weekend!
ueda
To ueda,
AH: rebouncing.
BLS: seems triple bottom. stop at 13.90
CPN: Pull back about 50%. Let's see if the 10 days moving average can hold it or not.
KGI: seems rebouncing. Stop tight if try.
SUSSCO: interesting.
seems SH is black horse not SAM or PE
Strong volumes for NWR so far, has the big hands played yet?
Is it the right timing to re-enter?
What do you think scrt?
To seizhin,
When XeniX said... NWR
http://www.pantip.com/cafe/sinthorn/topic/I6781928/I6781928-24.gif
2 M shares purchased today @ .31 buy company directors/owners.
Wednesday, July 09, 2008 8:33:00 PM
When you read the above post, you should start to buy litttle by little. If you bought since then, now you can sell some if it won't move up to average down your cost.
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