Stocks discussion No.6 - 2008
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.6 - 2008".
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posted by scrt4u @ Sunday, June 01, 2008
157 Comments
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157 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.6 - 2008". Please publish your stock picks or questions here.
SMIT: seems interesting again. Remember tight stop. Good luck.
BLISS, TRUE: good time to enter?
Thanks
Greeting value investors,
Looking at the latest situation now, it's time to move your port out of SET or you'll suffer deeper.
We're foreigners been cheated by never ending of political jokers who try to rob our money here.
Invest safely in other places & ignore this message if you're not agree with me.
Keith
To your question,
BLISS: in a TA view, it is but considering the current political situation, wait.
TRUE: same comment as BLISS.
HANA: seems preparing a small run-up. Stop tight if try. Good luck.
E: looking interesting. Good luck.
I think you can start buying a little bit now, coz foreign sell is almost over now may be one more day, things that cant fall further too much like STEC, TRUE, KTB.
But you never know i might be wrong.
KM
There is something cooking in CSP by the way how its holding.
hmm really bad tdy right...anyway bought a bit BH & TISCO.
I noticed SABINA keep moving up, anyone know when the race wl stop :)
It's totally opposite direction with other new comers TTW, PM & AS
ueda
I think the best bet will be those big banks. Look at KBANK it is now about 10 Baht below SCB. This is a sure buy among all banks.
Umi san
i agree,
Plus there might be talk between the government and the PAD if there is a breakthrough in the talk, SET will rally.
KM
HANA: yestoday's entry is proved correct. Raise LPP to 17.10. Enjoy!
MK: You may buy some. Stop tight. Good luck.
AMATA: Draw a line along the lows since 19 Jan. 2008 and you can get an uptrend line. Now the price dropped a lot near the line. You may buy some. Stop if the support line breaks. Good luck.
scrt4u how about TICON & ROJANA.
got small profit with THL & bought a bit AH
ueda
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
calm be patient, pad is a small group. invest and try to make money and b happy.
KM
Please do not use 4-letter words here. Thanks for your cooperation.
To ueda,
ROJANA: seems cooking. Good luck.
TICON: not so sure.
thx scrt4u, do you know about AMAC?could this be a super stocks :)
ueda
To ueda,
AMAC: Its common shares are only 206 million, small! UBS AG Singapore holds 7.76% of it, about 16 millions baht. I cannot predict it will be a super stock.
thx scrt4u, it's too risky to play with...I bought more AH & TPIPL for MT
Zorro how about our IEC, r u still holding?I still kept 100K avrg 4.22
ueda
MK: seems preparing a small run-up. Stop tight and good luck.
iec: the triangle is broken to the downside, sold already.
ccet-w1: broke st-downresistance, stop 1.04
sold IEC w/ just very small profit...wait for more buying signal, zorro pls keep us informed thx!
ueda
CSP: I blindly guess this stock will be a super stock. Be patient and let time prove it. Good luck.
iec: there were some news about a transaction of new sahres some days ago. there are still some to be sold, could be that they will keep iec above the salesprice of 4.1 or so until all are sold. then a ramp up or a plunge down should follow (guess they will let it fall unless the buyers of the shares have an interest in a ramp up.)
breaking 4.5 should be a buy signal.
APURE: seems start another rally again. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
TTW moved nicely, hope can reach my target 5++. I invest heavilly on this one, now just +10% :)
what's your view DELTA, SE-ED & LHK thx & hv a good wkend.
ueda
Any hope with NWR? After 'warming' it dropped yet another 20%...will it recover?
...and Rich another dropdown, too.
Football: Germany-Poland 2:0
Something I don't understand...PERM was recommended at 1 baht a year ago...then it crashed to 0.65, then shot up to some 450%...please explain, surely if you call a stock it is with the advice to limit losses by selling at max -10%...well, in this case nobody wuold have been holding by the time it hit 0.65, right? - so, unless you called it at the 0.65 low, what's there to crow about recommending a stock that according to your own advice nobody should be holding when it starts to move...?
yea scrt4u likes to boasts about this kind of crap he did it for TMB as well, it fell like crazy and a small bounce back up when no one was holding started to talk about it. well anyone can then crow about a stock that goes up then!
Are you jealous of our profit? Think hard why you cannot make money stock market!
Take BBL as an example. Before the 1997 financial crisis, BBL was priced at 300 bahts something. After the 1997 crisis, it crashed to 25 bahts something. When BBL was 25, what did you do? You lost all your hope? You sold all your position? You should have bought a lot of BBL and hold it untill now, it was priced at 140 bahts (April 2008). It is UP 560%, namely 56% annually.
Is NWR a good company? Yes! Could it be delisted from SET in the foreseable future? NO! Check its monthly chart and you can see it is in the bottom area for long time. Any stock cannot always drop. Drop is for the purpose of move-up. Move-up is for the purpose of drop. No. What should you do about NWR now? HOLD it, just like the smart poeple hold BBL if you are not good at short-term "buy & sell".
It's no use to be jealous! No use to badmouth us! We offer you all the advice free of charge! Actually we are giving you money!!!
scrt4u said...
PERM: we recommended this stock. Now its price is doubled at least. You should take some profit on 28 March. Anyway, raise LPP to 1.5 Enjoy!:)
Friday, March 28, 2008 11:44:00 PM
ASIMAR: Its SKD formed a double-bottm. You may buy some with tight stop.
SPALI: Its MACD hitting very low. Looking interesting! Stop tight if you try. Good luck.
GBX: seems rebouncing.
To ueda,
TTW: raise LPP to 4.75
DELTA: It's been vibrating within a horizontal channel (20 - 23.50). Now it's near the bottom of the cahnnel. You may buy some with acceptable stop.
SE-ED: It's been in an uptrend channel. Seems that HSBC (Singapore) has been pushing it up.
LHK: Its MACD and SKD look nice. Seems seamico securities is pushing it up. It could probably be a super stock. Buy with acceptable stop. Good luck.
thx scrt4u, TTW moved well, hope more profit ahead :)
zorro, how about WIN, E, BROOK or PE...m looking for small rock btm fishing?other hunts?
ueda
sorry, guys, but I am busy at the moment. can last for days or weeks. might be on the blog from time to time but can't give comments on a regular basis.
Hi ueda, all junk stocks incl PE, WIN, E, SAM etc will be smashed hard in coming days!!
what's wrong with BWG tdy???
scrt4u,zorro,what about rich rs-w1
pau
To pau,
RICH: Price is already too high. Do not be greedy on this stock.
RS-W1: wait for zorro's advice.
what's going on with RICH? RICH is making me poor actually...was 0.20 bottom and is this going to rebound tomorrow?
bye2 SET! decided to cut loss all & invest elsewhere
Look at AI. Holding it's own and going higher. Remember the song by Sly And The Family Stone? Let me take you higher........ :)
T_E W_T_HE_
scr4u,zorro,what about Bwg,mida-w1,win,nncl,ap,rs,rs-w1
any buy now ?
Thanks
pau
To pau,
BWG: probably you can buy some with tigh stop. Good luck.
hmm BWG what a miss!!should brave enough to buy @3.86 this morning
any other junks will follow?
ueda
Hi would like views on LH, AP, TSTH, LPN and TMB please.
Thank you,
KM
To KM,
LH: formed a double-bottom (2nd bottom is higher than the 2st one). Its WR and RSI are up. Check its montly chart and you can see it has been up 3 months and corrected for 2 moths. Singapore Government holds 12.3%. I suggest "Buy with stop at 7.25".
AP: Seems still in downtrend. Probably you need to wait for 5 - 5.25 when it touched the lower line of the channel. Be patient.
TSTH: Natsteel Asia and TATA Steel hold about 72% of all the shares. You know what you should do.
woww TUCC very active this morning!!
watch out guys as I think it wl close at lowest point again tdy
btw I sold out TTW 4.96 & reenter later, hmm money probably switch to KTB or AP or BH tdy.
ueda
scrt4u,zorro TUCC a buy now??? I heard big players where forced to sell out ???..same as Rich and secc
thanks pau
As expected TUCC back to lowest again, perhaps you can try once price stabilize if open lower tomrw...
reenter TTW partly & keep accumulate AH slowly...I saw all broker upgrade its target prx!
ueda
TUCC: Wow, dropped to the ground! In a TA view, you can buy with tight stop. Be cautious! As you know, there is basement under the ground floor! Good luck.
To ueda,
Your posts are nice. Keep on publishing your good pick or operations.
TTW: it's in strong uptrend. Raise LPP to 4.95 or higher!
AH: you may accumulate, ueda. If the support at 11 breaks, exit.
To KM,
(Yestoday I could not access the chart and info).
LPN: liquidity is about 1.5 billion. Foreigners hold quite some. Technically, it's been vibrating within a channel (26/01/2007; 22/01/2008; 12/06/2008), you can see it is touching the lower edge of the channel. Its SKD is at very low. MACD is alos in low area. You may buy some with tight stop. Good luck.
TMB: 5 yearly chart shows it's in the lowest level. Do you think the "BBL story" would also happen to TMB too? If you think so, BUY now with acceptable stop. Good luck.
PATKL: it rebounced strongly on 12 June 08. Seems you can chase with tight stop. Good luck.
DTAC: started move-up again. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
RICH: The volume on 10 June 08 was huge. Who cutloss? who bought the shares? Very interesting. I blindly guess that the buyers(big hands) will make another rally after some ups-and-downs which is to make more shareholders to cutloss. ;)
CSP: the major players are quietly pushing up the price by "small steps along an uptrend". Watch how the punters playing the game! :)
GSTEEL: seems ready to rebounce again. If you chase, stop tight. Good luck! :)
SMIT: interesting. If you like, buy with stop at 2.00. Good luck.
SPALI: pay attention to this stock.
MK: pay attention to this stock.
scrt4u
pay attention to spali,mk
what does this mean?
do u think they're going up or down?
To anonymous (you'd better use a nickname in this forum),
SPALI: still in down but near a bottom.
MK: probably going up.
Please always to cutloss if it does not make money for you.
ML: put 3 major average under it. broke out today. If you chase, stop tight. Good luck.
CSL: what made it gap-up alot today? Take profit if you have it.
SABINA: in strong uptrend. Watch the volume as your signal to sell. Raise LPP to 57. Enjoy!
IEC: seems going to break (most probably UP). If you chase, stop tight and use small position because its price is already quite high. Good luck.
TRU: This stock is making a "cup with a handle)" pattern, which you can only see half now. Probably it is going to make a 2nd rally or rebounce. If you try, stop at 2.94 Good luck! :)
CSP: today the punter made another small step up. Check its 5-yearly chart and you can see it's in up trend from bottom low for 4 months.
SINGHA: interesting.
Thanks for all the valuable info.
I have been struggling to find good long term graphs. The ones provided by Seamico only date back one year. Any tips on this??
WHAT HAPPENED TO NWR? SHD WE HOLD FOR LONG TERM OR CUT LOSS ? ALSO, ANY VIEWS ON NNCL/NNCL-W1/TRUE? TKS.
NWR: if you still have money, wait for lower price to average down. If you are fully loaded, you can sell some of your position so that you can buy back when it's lower and regulate down your cost. Think about "BBL story" I told you above and you do not need to worry about it. If you are determinded to hold it for 10 years, the punters can not wait so long and push it up. It's a struggle of will and patience between the retail and the bighands.
NNCL: seems in a rebounce.
TRUE: in down trend.
What do you guys think of JAS / CENTEL .
XnX
charts: you can get charts with seamico from 5 to 20 years if you switch the "unit" (top right of the chart) from daily to monthly
This comment has been removed by the author.
Yea i really hope CSP goes up stuck with CSP-W1 at .95. Scrt4u when is CSP heading up?
Stony
SET will down down and down, better short sell your position!
We offered various products that can shield your losses, pls contact us.
nomura
To Stony,
CSP: it is going up steadily by "small steps". I blindly guess that this stock still has big profit protential. The resistance ia around 3. If 3 is taken out, it will probably go up to 5 or higher. Don't be so sad. Hold it.
As to CSP-W1, please ask zorro.
SET: After collapse of Vietnam stock market, it's said the next dangerous stock markets are in India and korea. Thailand's SET is still relatively attractive.
JAS: It has made 3 waves up. The recent peak looked weaker. Now it has formed a triangle, waiting for breakout: up or down. Its volume decreased. MACD seems making a "dead cross". Be cautious.
CENTEL: in nice up trend, but now making a correction after 2 waves up. If you like to try wave 3, you make buy after the correction, using tight stop and small position. Good luck.
UMS: interesting! Good luck.
STHAI: looking interesting. If try, stop tight. Good luck.
CAWOW: its Biaed too much. So it seems there is a rebounce coming. Stop tight. Good luck.
added TASCO & THCOM to my port, any view on these?
ueda
PICO: Been holding this for almost a year, and it seems the the volume are slowly increasing, any views from the expert on the stock?
Thanks in advance. :)
TASCO: up after brokeout. It seems resistance around 75 days moving average.
THCOM: seems a double-bottom support, which if breaks, cutloss.
PICO: Seems resistance at 3.50. Hold it.
Why SET keep going down?
Is it because thais still believe on fortune teller nowadays hehe :p
Thanks scrt for the advise.
I believe that SET will rebound sooner than later as the net buy of the foreigners are slowly decreasing.
It's just about time before the foreign fun managers will enter SET again.
SHIN: News from the FT
Did anyone see today's article from the FT about Temasek Holdings plans to reduce its stake in Shin Corp.? (See http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dcf9ab22-3c3b-11dd-b958-0000779fd2ac.html)
There is a bit of drama here since Shin was central to the political upheavals of the last couple of years.
Moreover, I was struck by the report that SHIN was trading at a 3"35 per cent discount to their net asset value."
Now, normally if a 95% holder starts dumping stock that is going to depress the price. But this seems like an extraordinarily interesting speculation given the under-valuation of the stock and the built-in negativity towards SHIN and Temasek given the political upheaval.
Am I wrong or is this a classic Buffet style buy?
Its more like SHIN going to increase its capital in a big big way and perhaps that will dilute temeasks holding in it, causing major dilution affect.
Good luck!
CK: seems oversold. You may buy some with acceptable cutloss. Good luck.
ASIMAR: seems rebouncing. MACD ready to "gold cross". SKD up from low. OBV up too. Buy with tight stop and good luck.
JAS: as I worned you. Its MACD "dead cross". Triangle pattern boken and chose the direction "down". Reduce your positon. Keep some money and buy back when it's stable again.
JAS: as I worned you. Its MACD "dead cross". Triangle pattern boken and chose the direction "down". Reduce your positon. Keep some money and buy back when it's stable again.
I clear my stocks tdy with several cut loss as situation is still unfavourable & agreed with analyst SET will back to 750 soon.
Only holding TTW & AH now, keep cash to get bigger fish in future.
ueda
you're right Ueda, we will see a bloodbath this friday so runaway while you can!!!
Dont you worry! If things out of control we believe King will talk & bring peace again
Best time to buy when chaos erupted!!
nok
MDX: SET dropping like stone today, but MDX is going up steadily. Bighands are inside it. If try, stop tight. Good luck! :)
scrt4u, could you please comment on TRUE,NWR,TSTH,AH,KH,and STHAI
Thank You.
And
hehe not NWR, surely!!
I bought in when first called at 78, doubled down at 68, increased again when it was 'warming' at 55, bought more as it dropped in line with comments here...then was so far in the hole that i increased position when it was touted 'again' at mid-40s...now -45% and i have nothing to do but wait and hope.
To And,
TRUE: if 3.70 support breaks down, exit.
NWR: Bighands has been trying to force shareholders to cutloss so that they can get enough cheap shares. Two options: one buy low and sell high (how: down a little, do not buy; down alot, buy a little. Crash alot, buy more. Up a little more than your cost, sell a little; up a alot sell more.); the other option is hold it for long term.
TSTH: Its MACD is already "dead cross", exit.
AH: the right time to cutloss was on 16 June. If you did not cut, prepare money to buy when its price is stable again (around 9).
KH: Today it broke the double-bottome, reduce position.
STHAI: Buy more when its price is stable again.
Take good care of your valuable money because probably I am wrong.
These comments are only for your info. Please read our disclaimer.
To Anonymous,
Have you checked the 5 yearly chart of NWR? I sugget you check it if you did not yet. The price was 9.46 bahts on 31 Dec. 2003. It took almost 5 years for the price to be crashed down to current low 0.36 bahts. My question is "could it go up to 9 bahts in 5 years?". Most probably. Mybe 10 years. I can not guarantee, but there is the possibility. Think of the BBL story I posted under this thread.
Assume NWR can go up to 9 bahts in 10 years and your average cost is 0.50 bahts, then the pofit will be 18 times, namely 180% annually. If it can realise the target in 5 years, the rate is higher.
The BBL story the annuall profit is 56% (25 bahts in 1998 - 143 bahts in 2008)
Can this inspire you?
NWR: There are 3,149,691,424 registered shares. Morgan Stanley holds 15.56%, namely 490 million shares, about 176.43 millions bahts. If the price of NWR keeps going lower and lower, who loses more money?
Sooner or later, MS will blow up the "balloon".
When to start blowing?
When you are all "get hopless and dead" after the "death torture by the bear"!!!
One thing I really do not understand...if NWR is actually worth more today than it was 1 or 3 or 5 years ago when it was 1 - 9 baht, why is it now at 35 satang?
To anonymous,
Stock market is a channel through which wealth is transfered from hand to hand. Why people like to come to the stock market? It's beause it gives you hope, gives the opportunity to make money. If the price does not goes up and down, how coud the weath be transfered from one pocket to anther one? If no hope, who likes to buy? If no skare, who will sell? It's a game of greed and fear!
Those reports or mass media campange are servicing the bighands purpose to crash or pump up the price.
I blindly guess, the bighands will probably smash the price to below 0.20 and then start blow it up. Can you survive when the price is below 0.20 bahts?
Base on the fact of the BBL story and the infrusture construction market demand, it's most probably for the price to go up to 5 bahts in 5 years, that is about 10 times profit, or 100% annually.
partly agreed with scrt4u, anyhow you can start to increase your bet again around 730++
i really cant wait to buy cheaper stocks in coming days, remember bad time buy SET50 good time buy junks.
Be patient & sure you will make money!!
ueda
Very interesting point of view on NWR scrt, and thanks ueda on the opinion as I agree with them as well.
Currently, I'm waiting for things to recover, which I think is possible as these mobs would seem to end in the near future.
Good luck fellow investors!
NWR dec 2003 9.46??? SCRT4U you better rethink this one.
Are you sure. I don't think so. Try maybe at the highest 1.63 but closed at 1.38
What do you guys think of Rich now? They will be offering warrants to their existing shareholders within a year. Par value will be 0.4, see here: http://www.settrade.com/simsImg/news/2008/08020820.e08
Is it a fundamentally strong company?
I also have NWR btw, ASP securities rates 0.38 as the fair value.
To ken:
http://finance.google.com/
finance?q=BAK:RICH
Look at the news on the right side.
If NWR fair value is anywhere below 0.70 I think we've been led up the garden path on this one.
Great thanks for the link. Still don't understand though why they were forced to sell off this much.
Long term Rich would be a good bet then you think?
If PAD want Thaksin and gangs out, they should kill or hope they dissapear forever
How can they keep shouting & barking for something impossible?
I guess either they're crazy or stupid!
Pad are not stupied but very very selfish
they couldn´t care less for Thailand
pau
yep, they'll drag the country down to serve their own interests...may be time for the King to minister a few wise words.
does anyone know a website that i can check historical prices of stock going back 3-5 years? I am using SCIB and apparently in their system i can go back only 1 year ...
Thanks
To anonymous:
ttp://www.thaiset.com/stock/
Hi Andreas
Is this link correct? Seems not to be working.
Thanks
To anonymous,
yes, the link is correct. Looks like a temporary problem.
Scrt4u.. Any picks
Thank you
And
Advice on TMB and Raimon please also is CSP still intact.
Thanks,
Ron
AS: seems rebouncing. If you try, stop at 10.30 Good luck.
TMB: reached previous low. You may try to buy some with tight stop.
RAIMON: bighands have good control of the price. You may buy with acceptable loss stop. Good luck.
CSP: On 23 June 2008, it did a shakeout. I think it is still intact. Hold it and good luck.
CSP: a simple way is monitor the 10 days moving average line. If close price stays above it, hold it. If price breaks it, reduce your position. Simple enough?
TPIPL: seems now re-entry. Stop at 5.75. Good luck.
SMIT: seems rebouncing. Stop at 1.99 Good luck.
MK: bighands do not allow the price goes above 2.08 for 8 days. Did you see this? They are accumulating chips. Buy with stop at 2.02. Good luck.
MDX: moving up as we expected. Raise your LPP accordingly. Enjoy!
BT: take profit today.
BT: if you bought it after our call on 6 May 2008 and take profit, you have made over 50%.
Enjoy! Now you see how important the 5 yearly chart?!
--------background info------
scrt4u said...
BT: I check its 5-year monthly chart and weekly chart. It looks interesting. Keep an eye on it.
At Tuesday, May 06, 2008 4:04:00 PM
GJS: it brokeout. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
for BT the prices are up in speculation for takeover bid-- doesnt really have anything to do with 5yr chart .. isnt it?
To Anonymous,
Charts tell many important message even they are speculation. Am I right?
What I mean is that the 5 yearly chart of NWR tell some important message. There are many cases, like IEC, PERM, etc.. You will see NWR make big rally in several years.
Not believable? OK, copy my this post and challenge me in several years.
AP: its MACD "gold cross"; Its SDK up; OVB up. Broke 10 days moving average. Double-bottom. If chase, stop with tight stop. Good luck.
CSP: check its 5 years weekly chart and you can see there is some resistance around 3.
Assume started accumulating since one year ago with average cost at 2 bahts and suppose the price can go up to 6 bahts within 5 years, then your profit is 300%.or 60% annually. If it is done within 3 years, then 100% annually. Is it worth?
Can this cheer you up?
Now write down your bad feeling, such as worry, anxiousness, hopless, etc., and put it away in a safe place so that you can read it in several years.
This is called "day-dreaming", very helpful to your stock investment. Try it and you will love it.
MK: did you see that the bighands allowed it to break the ceiling at 2.08? bighands spent little money to have broken it. Increase your position. Enjoy! :)
CSP: Did you see the major players gapped up the price alot with little trade volume? This means they have good control of the price. They can shoot the price as high as they like. The only factor is their willingness. Haha! This stock will make you big money. Enjoy!!! :)
MME: its price seems reset again. It touched the previous low. Keep an eye on it.
SCRT4U what are your comments on RICH?
I am stuck with BTC-W1 at over 2baht and i have been day dreaming for a very long time, so long that its going to expire next year which mean s i will be losing all my capital unless BTC rallies upto 3 baht or over.
Stuck with CSP-W1 at 0.95 last time csp was at 2.90 this was the price of the warrant today its not.
Will the warrants follow?
STONY
RICH: It has stayed above 10 days moving average line. Now in consolidation for a break up (up or down)
-------------------
To Stony,
CSP-W1: please wait for zorro's advice. I am no good at warrants, which are more risky but also more profitable if you know how to play it.
CSP: no need to worry about this mother stock, I blindly guess it will reward you greatly within 5-10 years.
Warrants are different from mother shares. You can "day-dream" a mother share as long as it is a good stock which will not be delisted from the stock market.
But warrants have expire dates. I did not advise you to "day-dream" warrants. I usually advise you to ask advice from zorro. Please read the disclaimer at http://thaistocktips.blogspot.com/2006/01/welcom-to-faotsi.html
MAJOR: it's dropped alot, forming a sharp-pointedly bottom. Seems coming a rebounce. Stop tight if chase. Good luck.
SPALI: its MACD "gold cross". Seems rebouncing from oversold. Now up for more than 3 days. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
hi scrt4u, bought a bit SGP & KTB @closing price, happy hunting guys but dont buy junks at this time!
MAJOR is good but not recommended for short term player i guess!
ueda
hmm MAJOR bounce back but i guess you can sell some & buy later in this situation...
btw sold SGP with 10% & buy TTW again, noticed SABINA keep moving up, 2x from IPO now!
ueda
To ueda,
Yes, TTW and Sabina both look in uptrend.
Sell sell sell, SET will down down down!!!
SET: has not broken (down) the triple support (connect the 3 lows: 17/08/2007; 24/01/2008; 20/06/2008). If the support line breaks, sell or reduce your position.
GJS: set down but this stock up. Seems in uptrend. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
This thread is closed. Please move to "Stocks discussion No.7 - 2008"
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