Stocks discussion No.9 - 2007
since our recommendation on 26 April 2007 when it's 3.06.
Now (2 Oct.07) move LPP to 7.00. Enjoy!:)
Email this Thai Stock blog (forum) to my friend >>>
To Peter C., --- Below is the weekly chart of UMS. Click to enlarge it and you can see the TA views : )
Peter, I would not like to suggest you to chase. Please look at the daily chart of UMS and my blindly guessed reasons as follows:
(1) Although it took out the all time high on 1 October 2007, the trade volume seemed not big enough. (2) It still has to take out the uptrend channel resistance (AB line). (3)After brokeout on 25/09/07 with relatively big volume (CB line), it kept moving up for 4 days. (4)This long term rally has already pulled up the price over 440%. Usually a stock has this big appreciation is quite toppy. But if you feel really itching, you can use small position and tight stop to chase. Don't play big position at this high price level even it is very fundamentally sound. I do not know how many percents you have made on this stock. It seems to me that your "greed" is defeating your "fear" at the moment. Anyway, you have the final say.
Below is the daily chart of UMS on 9 Oct. 2007. Click it to enlarge and see the comments:
Labels: Stock Discussion
posted by scrt4u @ Saturday, September 01, 2007
199 Comments
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
199 Comments:
To ueda,
CEI: Seems in uptrend. stop at 2.05
KSL: brokeout but near previous high resistance.
MAJOR: After finishing pullback on 29 Aug.07, now it seems in up trend, stop at 10 days moving average. Good luck.
MDX: keeps going up. It's up about 40% since our recommendation on 23 Aug.07. If you re-entered 27 Aug 07 after our call, you are now in profit of over 20%. Now move LPP to 4.54. Enjoy!:)
JAS: seems trying to breakout. Good luck.
KMC: we we recommended this stock. Proof:
-----------------------------------
scrt4u said...
KMC: looks interesting.
Friday, August 31, 2007 3:42:00 PM
-----------------------------------
Tody it is going up as expected. Now set LPP/stop at 1.19
TT&T: keeps going up.
TT&T, good entry.
SPALI: set stop at 3.5 or acceptable to you. Good luck.
TOG dancing nicely :)
your comment on GEN, TIES plz
ueda
scrt4u what are your comments on ynp,ever,tgpro,pylon ?
thanks
pau
zorro what is your comment on eastw-w1 and nncl-w1?
thanks
pau
Pls comment on EVER
Thank you
scrt4u
Can we please have your advice on UMS and UV?
Peter C
To all your questions above,
TOG: brokeout but seems in wave 3. If chase, use small position and tight stop.
GEN: scrt4u 说...
SET: It seems 800 has some support after two gapp-downs.
GEN: We recommended this stock on 8 August 07: Proof:
--------------------------------
scrt4u said: rebouncing for 2nd day. If chase, use tight stop. Good luck.
Wednesday, August 08, 2007 12:07:00 PM
---------------------------------
If you listened to, you are now in profit of 20%
TIES: seems trying to break out a "flag pattern". Stop at line (connects the recent lows).
YNP: It seems the punters is trying a shakeout. It is already in the low price area for some time. If you try your luck, set stop at 4.25 or a loss acceptable to you. Good luck.
EVER: seems in uptrend, chase with stop at 1.90
TGPRO: It brokeout a little yestoday. Today it is doing a shakeout. Get some with stop at 1.0 or a little lower. Good luck.
PYLON: It seems "left half cup" pattern. You can accumulate some with stop at 1.75.
UMS: It's approaching the previous high resistance (a 9% profit gap). Seems a little shaky. Better wait it take out the resistance.
UV: You can chase this with stop at 10 days moving average for today.
As to warrant, please wait for zorro to answer.
Good luck to you all.
eastw-w1 expires in november, supension should be in about 6 weeks. if the mother share drops 20 % you can lose all your money. better look out for a warrant that will stay around a bit longer. should there be a larger drop and the volume increases it might be good for a st-trade, as long as the mother share does not fall too much.
nncl-w1 is in the money.
i recommended end of june to buy if 1.62 was broken, which it did early july with a small rally up to 2.66.
now it fell back to the same level and should be a buying opportunity.
i would set a stop at 1.6 as it could fall back to 1.25. watch the mothershare for support at 2.5-2.54, a break could trigger a fall in the warrant as well. yesterdays fall on increasing volume does not look good (now below all major averages), so it might be safe to wait a couple of days before entering.
MDX: it continues going up. It's up 27% since our re-entry call. Now move LPP to 4.85. Enjoy!:)
SOLAR: is doing well. I bought some yestoday.
NWR: if my blind guess correct, this stock finishes two days of correction and will probably go up tomorrow. If you enter, set stop at 0.57 Good luck. Just blind guess!
MME: is trying to breakout. If chase, set stop at 2.75 Good luck.
TPAC goes up. Nice Chart.
To andreas,
I checked TPAC's chart. It started its rally since a year ago (sept. 2006). Now it is already up over 270%. it seems a little shaky although it has not started distribution. But if you would like to chase, be cautious.
GEN: did very well today. Now move LPP to around 1.14 Enjoy!:)
TCJ: if you have this stock, take some profit today bcause it's near the resistance around 6.5.
What is your comment on TOP.
Thanks,
Elephant babel
To Elephant babel,
TOP: not charming because it has not broken out the left shoulder. RSI is toppy.
TFI: interesting. Stop tightly if try.
What should i do with my TOP in that case got some at 83?
Thanks,
Nokia
To Nokia,
I just do not understand why didn't you chase this stock on 29 August 07 when it was just showing a intention to breakout. You bought 3 Sept. 07 if I am not wrong.
Your loss is now 1.2%, still acceptable. Set your stop at 80. If 80 breaks, reduce your position or exit.
i bought it last month when it fell from 90 something.
Thanks,
Nokia
This morning, Money Channel interviewed BAFS and they said that the company is making profit, and will continue to make further provit, as well as saying that DTAC and AIS had been permitted to do a new telephone project by the government.
I would like to ask you about your views on EVER,BAFS and DTAC.
thought SOLAR, MME & CEI really rising but it's dead & cut loss today :((
sam
scrt4u - did not sell yesterday as I was away and just read your message this morning. Lucky me.
So what is the next resistance point? Do you think there will be more upside (how high) will it shoot up for this round?
Thanks
UMI san
scrt4u - Sorry forgot to indicate the name of counter. I meant TCJ. It continue to shoot up today. What is your recomendations?
Thanks.
UMI san
To UMI San,
TCJ: I guess the next resistance is around 7.50, then 8.75. Now set LPP for today at 6.40.
To Seizhin,
my TA views as follows:
EVER: It's been vibrating within a horizontal channel between 1.82 - 2.04. Today the price is still above moving averages of 10 and 25 days. Seems pullback 50% now.
BAFS: Already made two waves. Now it is around 75 days moving average line. If you try, set stop at 75 DMA.
DTAC: price brokout moving averages of 10 days and 25 days. looks interesting. If you accumulate, you are advised to buy in several lot so that you can get a relative low cost and set exit point at 37.75 or a little lower. It is about 10% loss risk. Remember any investment involves risk.
SINGHA: it is above moving averages of 10, 25 and 75 days now.
what's resistance SINGHA?is too late to enter 2nd round?
Singha is still in the low price range if you look at it two years daily chart. Next resistance is probably around 2.85. If you are not good at stopping tightly, do not chase.
TT&T: seems trying to break out. Watch out!
KC: brokeout. If chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
MIDA: seems cooking. If try, set exit point at 1.30. Good luck.
THL: trying to breakout. Chase and stop tightly. Good luck.
again got stucked speculative SINGHA 2.54 & now 2.46, hold & RP
sam
hold or RP i meant
To sam,
Actually you are playing game against the major punters. When you play this game, you'd better use small position and so that you can average once or twice. After the averages, you still can not get a profit protection, give up.
By making many small failures, you will learn how to do this game. You can make small mistakes instead of big mistakes. You have to have the courage to correct your small mistakes. You can lose small money but not big loss.
You lose nothing today because the close price is your cost. Good luck.
Failure is the mother of success.
scrt4u thx still it's too violatile, cut loss at break even though maybe go up tomrw.
maybe still not my fortune tdy
sam
Scrt4u - Thanks for the resistance and lpp for TCJ. Cashed in some of my chips and hope to re-enter if buying is strong tomorrow morning.
UNI san
UNI san, you did a good job. You gradually understand how to dance with the major punters.
Remember, when you are not so sure, use small position to learn the techniques. How small should the positon be? It should be so small that even it lose 30 - 50%, it is still nothing to you. In this way, you will feel no phycologic pressure to learn the know-how.
UNI san = Sam ?
Are you two the same person?
Thank you for your advice on the 3, I decided not to go for anything yesterday as it seems to be quite dangerous, since Dow Jone increases today, it might be a good time to look around today.
Good luck everyone.
Good morning scrt4u,
Sam & UMI san 2 different person. Not related whatsoever. Thanks again for your invaluable advise and guidance on stock trading. Agree with you 100% on your trading tactics. One very important fact as you mentioned is to cut loss when it is small. But most players cannot accept to take small losses just like the Thai saying (to make small losses is difficult but losing big is easy).
Good luck.
UMI san
I entered small NWR which was mentioned in another thread, from .65 and now avg .62 but even it is -10% it looks like downside risk is small.
Do you think it is worth increasing stake?
Many tx
UK
To UK,
Today SET is down. NWR changed its intention and keeps going down. I think it's better to increase your stake around 0.49 - 0.53 Good luck.
To UMI san,
Our winning strategy is based on the "Math Possibility Theory - 50/50". Even you are a "blind tosser", you still have 50% of the stocks picks are winners. As long as you cutloss small for the 50% losers and keep moving up LPP for the 50% winners, you make profit for the long term. Maybe you do not profit in short period of time. But in a long term perspective, you will make profit.
Some people just can't accept cutting small loss. Then they are forced to cashed out by BIG loss. This is the miserable weakness for majority of the retailers.
JTS: brokeout. If chase, don't forget set stop. Good luck.
TGCI: seems brokout "triangle pattern". If chase, stop on 1.07 Good luck.
SET is breaking important support 800.
CSP: keep an eye on this stock ;)
uhh luckilly not loss from SINGHA yesterday while tdy gain a bit from PRO, cut loss when it's small is defenitely good recipe!!
sam
Sam, you start understanding importance of "cutloss small". You will gain from the "50/50 Math Possibility". Keep on this test/practice until you feel sure what you are doing, and then you can play big position.
SYRUS: brokout. If chase, set stop at 3.50 Good luck.
SET is breaking important support at 800. Be cautious!
TCJ - WOW!!!!!!
Had a wonderful ride up this afternoon. See how it goes. Better to lock in some of the profits tomorrow morning. Big gap up at the close. Looks fishy to me.
UMI san
Congrats UMI san!
Dare not jump in anything today. But that's a crazy 1.50 increase for a 7 baht share.
seizhin, please do not be in a hurry. Wait for your surest stock pick and jump in. You can use small position to be safe at the beginning. Good luck.
TCJ - Under "watchful" eyes from the authorities today. Board denying involvement in sudden price surge. Interesting to see what happens next. Should be fun riding this "SPACE RANGER". Enjoy your ride BUT I repeat, this is only for the fun ride and not for heavy punting.
Good luck.
UMI san
DE: seems trying to rebounce. If chase, set stop at 0.69
WIN: interesting. If try, set stop at 0.90
Good luck.
SPALI : Looks nice, I jumped in this one.
seizhin, pls set stop at 3.45 -3.50 for SPALI. A 4% loss risk. Good luck.
SMIT: brokeout "shoulder+head+shoulder" pattern. If chase, set stop at 2.30 or higher.
NWR: you can accumulate it with a stop at 0.48.
Good luck !!!
STA: market appears to have overlooked its outstanding 2nd quarter results.At current price of 13.50 it has a P/BV of 0.63 , a dividend yeld of 11% and a P/E of 5.7 . 52 weeks low was just 12 baht so it has also a limited downside.
This comment has been removed by the author.
Thanks for the advise on setting stop.
SPALI : Announced to be paying 0.12 per share as divident. If you're interested, get it before 19/Sep/07.
Might reconsider, it's at 4.64 now, abit above the average.
your views on;
JAS
TRUE
JUTHA
ASL
thanx
Tim
To Tim
JAS: it's near the low price area and has made a narrow horizotal channel for 4 days. IF it can stay above 0.43, buy it with stop at 0.43.
TRUE: It seems forming a flag pattern, near the lower line the channel. If buy, set stop at 6.30
JUTHAL: Ambiguous, be cautious.
ASL: It's along the 75 DMA. If try, set stop at 0.90
UCOM: breakout again. If chase, set a tight stop or a stop acceptable to yourself.
TYM: seems rebouncing again. If chase, set tight stop.
Good luck.
UCOM shares in last day trading, to be replaced by DTAC tomorrow.
Andreas
TK: brokeout.
DRT: brokeout, but it's in high price area.
MPT: it's forming a horizontal narrow channel. Price is above the moving average lines of 10 days, 25 days and 75 days. It seems preparing a breakout, most probably UP. If try, set stop at 2.50 Good luck.
DE: showed the intention to move up. Don't forget to set your small loss stop. Good luck.
scrt4u
your comments on egco pls
to your question,
egco: this stock has been moving up along 75 days moving average. Now it is already in high price area, touching 75 DMA. It seems in an downtredn channel.
LST: Conect the highs and lows, you can see get a channel. The price is now rebouncing from the lower line of the channel. Price is above moving averages of 10 and 25 days. If chase, set stop at 1.90
EMC: seems preparing a rebounce. If you try, use small position and set stop at 2.84 Good luck.
Distar: seems cooking. You may accumulate now and set stop at 0.55 Good luck.
The "Now click the comments link below for daily updates Arrow" does not work.
Andreas
To andreas,
Don't click the 86 comments link instead of the red 'down arrow' picture.
Just click the comments link below the red "down arrow".
Today's pretty much a bright day for investors.
SET's reopening tomorrow, any general advise scrt ?
KK is really cheap.Where else can you find a bank stock with a P/BV of 0.83 , a dividend yeld of 7.8% and a P/E of 9 ? Besides 28 is a very strong resistence, and just two months ago the stock quoted 36.
A rebound is almost a sure thing.
I agree with you gaudente another stock with similar discription would be TCAP, now also owned by bank of Nova scotia of Canada an added bonus.
Scrt4u, screwed me on TT&T i had collected 30million shares gonna dumb soon now!
To Anonymous, first please read our disclaimer.
You collected 30 million shares? How many percent does these 30million account for your total money? It seems you put all your eggs in one basket. We advised that "Do not invest over 10% of your total money in one single stock".
What is your average cost of your 30 million shares?
Gaudente, KK looks interesting.
TCAP: if you play this stock, better be cautious. It seems in wave 3.
if the guy stating he has 30 million TT&T shares to dump says the truth, then we will soon see TT&T below 1 baht...there's hardly 1 million shares per book level !
TVO: if you have this stock, take your profit today.
TMB: intresting. Stop 1.82
EVER: seems rebouncing. Stop 1.85 Good luck.
TMB: move LPP to 1.95 or higher. Enjoy!:)
LST: move LPP to 2.0
KK: interesting.
YNP: seems preparing a breakou, probably UP. If try, stop at 4.30
Good luck.
AMC: interesting.
KEST : I think this looks interested for a small profit.
seizhin, It's hard to say kest will go up. Becautious.
We recommended this stock last April when it was only 16 something.
SCP: seems warming up. Stop 7.50 Good luck.
WIN: interesting.
RASA: seems rebouncing. Stop tightly.
Anybody knows the exD for STA ?
Thanks in advance.
Andreas
try this link to find it:
http://www.set.or.th/set/calendarofevents.do?language=en&country=US
have tried the link yesterday twice. Kelive, settrade etc., too. Cant find it.
Thanks.
Andreas
Look at the chart of GOLD on the sidebar, you can see it keeps going up form 600 something to USD729.
I think zorro can answer your question.
NNCL: seems rebouncing. Stop = 2.08 Good luck.
Thanks for the calender scrt4u, I was wondering where I can check for the XD other than my broker.
seizhin, actually I have inserted the link in the sidebar menu of this blog. It is from the official website of the stock exchange of Thailand.
Andreas, if you still cannot find the XD of STA, you can contact your broker for the info. Your broker (where you opened your account) should provide you this info because they charge commission for your every buy/sell.
Good idea. Thank you.
Andreas
xd of sta is usually in march or april with payment in april or may.
i get the dates from phillip securities.
Zorro, thank you. Thougt they pay an interim dividend this year.
Andreas
SET took out previous high. Good sign.
NNCL: set stop/LPP at 2.25
KK: interesting.
YNP: insteresting.
If you enter, set your small loss stop. Good luck.
sta: in the news which i can read from the last 12 month i could find only one statement about the dividend, this was made in march and related to the dividend in april/may.
if sta would pay an interim dividend it would be usually 6 month after the normal xd, so in october / november. the xd calendar doesn't show anything for sta.
Zorro, thanks again.
Andreas
RRC: brokeout. If chase, stop tightly. Goodluck.
RICH: our call was when it's only 2.30. Now do the math and you can see how many percents it has already upped? Now move LPP to 10.75. Enjoy!:)
STPI: we recommended this stock on 26 April 2007 when it was only 3.06. It's now up 222% within 5 months. Now the price has been shown you 3 strong big candlesticks, use tight "lock profit point". Enjoy! :)
Today seems shipping day?
RCL: seems trying to breakout the right "shoulder".
TTA: brokeout the double-top pattern. If chase, stop at the previous top.
PSL: broke downtrend highs.
SAM: took out 2 previous highs. Move LPP to 9.00 Enjoy!:)
TYM: seems interesting again. Stop at 2.90
PE: seems rebouncing again. If chase, stop at 1.22
Good luck.
guys, interesting with steel stocks but which one is good to buy SAM, SSI, GSTEEL, NSM, TSTH??
also latest view on PLE, KH thx.
ueda
After some checking TYM does look interesting, maybe I'll give it a try.
ueda, all your steel stocks are good: SAM, SSI, GSTEEL, NSM, TSTH
In a TA view, GSTEEL and NSM have less down risk because they are too low to go down further.
In stock market, the first rule is protection of your principal. So if you do not like chase, buy NSM and GSTEEL.
If you like chase, buy SAM and TSTH.
As to PLE and KH, I guess, KH is ambiguous, waiting for a breakout (up or done). Stop at 8.75
PLE: it's forming an UP channel. Enter with stop at 5.30 - 5.40 Good luck.
seizhin, you can use small position to enter TYM with small loss stop. Good luck.
thx scrt4u, i wl try some above
ueda
sctr4u what's your comment on nep,pylon,n-park,loxley ?
thank you
pau
zorro please your comment on nncl-w1,kk-w4,csp-w1,gbx-w1.
thank you
pau
pau, my comments on your stock picks as below:
nep: After double tops, it pulled back about 50%. seems preparing a rebounce. Stop tightly.
pylon: looks "half cup with handle". Could accumulate with stop at 1.75
n-park: This is a really speculative stock. seems interesting. Stop very tightly.
loxley: interesting. Enter with stop at 1.74
Good luck.
Scrt4u
Can you explain what is downtrend highs ?
TTA: brokeout the double-top pattern. If chase, stop at the previous top.
PSL: broke downtrend highs.
Newbie
newbie, connect the two highs (23 July 07 and 6 Sept. 07) and draw a parellel line. Now you can see the downtrend channel.
scrt4u,thank you very much for your advice !
pau
nncl-w1: support is a slow rising support since may, around 1.35. three days ago it broke the downtrend of this month and would have been the point of entry.
Now still possible, but looking at the mothershare the rebound will not be sustainable, unless nncl breaks above 2.5 (former horizontal support). that's why i would hold but not buy.
kk-w4: b&s is 9, so it is rather on the cheap side compared to other warants. found a support at 10, chart looks good to enter, same as kk.
csp-w1: bought some a couple of days ago, despite being a bit too expensive, but these type of warrants are often picked for a good pump. i will cut loss at around 0.7
gbx-w1: only a gearing of 1.5, warrant neither cheap nor expensive. chart looks good, same as gbx, but stop if gbx closes below 1.49
Scrt4u
I see the downtrend . So your meaning is : It will continue downtrend or now it broke into uptrent ? If uptrend, what is target ? Sorry to sound so stupid. I'm just a
Newbie.
Thanks
newbie, when psl broke (UP ) the downtrend channel, it showed an intention to go up; but sometimes the punters "cheat you", so you have to set a small loss stop. I can not predict its target.
Today it is correcing. Be cautious.
zorro,thank you very much for your comments.
pau
zorro,
pls advice on thani-w2. thx
hongkie
GBX: interesting. Stop 1.42 - 1.49 Good luck.
KK: moving up as we expected. Now set stop/LPP at 29.
thani-w2 or w3: both have identical datas. the theoeretical value (b&s) is only 0.07 and thani is moving sideways. not a good time to buy in now.
pls some advice, on SVOA, RASA, S2Y, NNCL
also zorro, anything on EMC-W1?
many thanks
Tingtong
hi zorro, scrt4u sum comment on SICCO pls. thx
Hongkie
To Tingtong,
my comments as blow:
SVOA: buy with small loss stop.
RASA: seems forming a "half cup with handle". If you enter, set stop at 6.15
S2Y: Buy with stop at 1.57. If punters break this 1.58 punting platform, you cut loss too.
NNCL: interesting, stop at 2.20
Since this is your first time to ask advice, please read our disclaimer.
Win or loose is your own responsibility. If you are not sure, use small position to test your decition. Good luck.
To Hongkie,
SICCO: very nice uptrend channel is forming and it formed for some time. You may accumulate now.
Please be cautious because even it is forming an uptrend channel, the major punters can also break the platform if they think it's neccessary to make shakeouts.
Keep some money so that you can average down onece or twice. But if after averagedown, the price still do not hold, give up.
Good luck!
SCP: interesting. stop = 7.5 Good luck.
LPN: brokeout. If you chase, use small position and tight stop. Be cautious because it is in high price area. Good luck.
emc-w1: after the sharp drop earlier this month it looks like it founds a support. If you buy now, set stop at 1.75.
you can also wait for a breakout above 1.84 (intraday or closing). don't buy for long term, as the expiration is in 1 year.
sicco: long downtrend, maximum upside seems to be the falling resistance in the daily and weekly chart now at 4.2 with the 125 and 200 day avg being in the same area. this is only 10 % upside, better to invest somewhere else and wait for a trendchange if the line is broken
thank you guys
tingtong
TNITY: brokeout. If chase, stop tightly.
zorro, scrt4u
thx a lot 4 advice
hongkie
scrt4y what is your comment about kwh,preb,kmc,svoa ?
Thank you,
pau
pau, my comments as follows:
kwh - interesting. buy with stop at 1.25
preb - buy with stop at 1.45
kmc - buy with stop at 1.10
svoa - It's near the lower line of the downchannel. If you buy, set stop at 1.30 or acceptable to you
Good luck.
NWR: this stock is doing well today. Move LPP to 0.63 or higher. Enjoy!:)
ASCON: brokeout. If chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
To UK,
Are you happy with NWR now?
Now move LPP to 0.67 or higher. Enjoy!:)
NWR: If you listened to our advice, you are now in profit of 25%. We recommended it on 4 Sept. 07 and adviced to increase position between 0.49 - 0.53 in answer to UK's question.
Nonsense...I bought NWR on your advice at .79, sold on your advice at .73, bought on your advice two days later at .74 and watched it go into another dive...now it's moving up sorry but I can't see it as a great winner.
fairminded
why only SET in red??It happened quite often other market & Dow up then SET down
i guess it's only to scare those speculative & small players
To fairminded,
I think I gave you the stop. When price of NWR went down, you just watch it? You did not cutloss?
Please quote the posts (including date and time).
scrt4u: Somebody asked about NWR when it dropped after your recommendation from .79 to .74, you said oh you should have sold it yesterday, on this I sold the next day at .73...one or two days later you called NWR again, I bought at .74, and the next time you mentioned NWR was in the mid .50s when someone asked for an entry point, and it was THEN that you said try .49-.53...I have been fellowing all mentions of
NWR so these are the facts.
Also CSP, you highlighted it as a special for several months as it dropped from 2.48 to 2.00 and then went very quiet...I suspect when it starts to move back from 2 baht you'll claim another victory.
the above post is mine
fairminded
this games a dangerous one for those that dont react quickly. Im for one am sticking to companies that turn a profit and pay divs.
they may not go up as fast but they are steady earners,in the long run.
got burnt too many times, even after cutloss, as I had many many stocks that went down during the nightmare we had a few weeks ago.
dont let your greed drive you, you will lose.
turtle.
to scrt4u thank you for your comments !
pau
scrt4y please continue with your good comments and don,t let yourself down by some critics .
pau
Fair comments and this is of course a great blog, but I am saying only that the cheerleading for NWR is misplaced.
fairminded
To fairminded,
Thanks for your post. Let's think this way:
You entered NWR 3 times. If you had cut losss small and suppose you lose 7% each time, then your 3 times total loss is 21%. But the last time, you bought between 0.49-0.53, you still make money. Look at the price of NWR, it's up about 40%.
You enter first time, it goes down and triggers your stop point, you stop out. You enter for the 2nd time, it cheats you again, you stop out again. keep on... Finally the stock starts moving up and up and you keep moving up the "Lock profit point". This is not empty talk. This is based on the simple "50/50 math possibility theory". Application of this theory could lead you to win or fail. It takes time to learn it. You should use small position to learn this processs at the beginning. When you are cofident, you can use big position to play. Many people just want to get rich "overnight" and use BIG position. If you are right, you make big money but if you are wrong, you go broke or get burn seriously. What we seek is make money steadily and stably.
That is why we emphase the importance of "cut loss when loss is still small". When loss is big, there is no meaning to cutloss. You have to wait.
NWR: keep performing well today. It's up 40%. Move LPP to 0.73 Enjoy!:)
PSAP: rebouncing. Stop tightly if chase. Good luck.
scrt4u: Many thanks for your tuition, you are right of course, and I thank you also for taking the time and giving your expertise to this blog.
You can manage my port anytime. ;)
thanks for kind comments.
PYLON: My attention was drawn by pau to this stock. Laok at the daily chart you can see that it started to move up a little bit yestoday and today.
What does this mean?
This means the intention of going up.
Should you enter?
It's up to you.
Could it be a trap?
Probably.
After entry, if it breaks the bottom of the "half cup with handle" pattern, exit and wait for another opportunity. Keep your loss as small as possible and you will make it finally. The insider punters can not smash the price down many times because it is not free to shake down the price.
Good luck.
CSP: This stock has been trying to wear out your patience. It is a stock controled by local capital (several families).
Fairminded, you don't believe it will fly sooner or later?
Copy this post and save it on your computer and you can use it to criticize me again if CSP won't go up than the present price finally.
Lets make money, not war.
Reentry-point for NWR ? Sold it yesterday 0.69, nice profit.
Andreas, Age 42, Made in Germany :-)
where would you stop CSP? :)
tingtong
To Andreas,
You are fun. Thanks for you post. I am happy you made nice profit on NWR. Now I don't suggest you to re-enter because the price is near the resistance at 0.80
To tingtong,
CSP: stop depends on your entry cost. If you buy 1.98, you can set your stop at 1.89. It's about 5% loss risk. Good luck.
PAE: It looks interesting. stop tightly if you chase. it seems that Siam Investment Fund is punting this stock if I am not wrong.
Scrt4u last time I inquired about UMS you advised to wait. It's going up now, what do you think?
I like it on fundamentals but value your technical advice.
Thanks again
Peter C.
To Peter C,
Draw a line to connect the previous 3 highs and you can see the price broke out on 25 Sept. 07. Now a little late to chase because it's up for 5 days and near the resistance at 25.75.
Look at the 5 yrs monthly chart and you can see the resistance is at 25.75.
Could it be a double top pattern?
Hard to say.
But it is already in high price area after one year rally and up 430%. Even it can go up furth, the risk is biger and bigger.
If it can break up 25.75 with good volume, you may consider chasing it. If I were you, I would prefer to try other stock opportunity.
hi ppl
some advice on loxley, stec and stec-w2 please.
many thanks
CC
TYM : Fell by 0.2 for 2 days, means a total of 0.4 lost.
By this Monday, do you think it's better to sell TYM and go for CSP secret?
To CC's questions,
loxley: It did a shakeout on 24 Sept.07 after breaking the small flag pattern. Then pushed up for two days. Now set LPP/stop at 1.75.
stec: steadily moving up. Move LPP/stop to 6.00
stec-w2: wait for zorro to answer your this question.
To seizhin,
You may sell your TYM. But if you try CSP, you have to be very patient and also set a stop acceptable to you. Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
Thank you for your advise, I'll remember them and see what I can do tomorrow.
stec-w2: i don't follow the warrant but from the data it says that it will expire in 6 month and still stec needs to increase over 30% before the ex-price is reached or 54% until it is in the money. this is not impossible but a lot. to go safe one would be better off to buy the stock to make 54 % within 6 month than to buy the warrant and risk to lose all.
from the chart the warrant has 2 downresistance lines in the 1 year chart: one line (july-sept) was broken and a signal for st-play, the other (feb-july) is now reached and it looks like it is acting. not a good time to get in.
what do you advise on MME,APURE, PE and VNG.
mme and vng i own.
many thanks
tingtong
UMI - Interesting watch. Good volumes this morning and nice movements.
UMI san
zorro,
pls your comment on loxley as well, got in some at 1.85.
how about stec, u think it's worth holding?
thanks
CC
To tingtong,
MME: hold it as long as it stays above 2.75
APURE: Set LPP/stop at 3.38
VNG: its recent lows seem getting higher. Set stop at 4.50
PE: Set stop at 1.25
Good luck.
mme: going sideways since a long time, now the 200 day avg is approaching. buy in if it is broken. if you hold it and see a better opportunity, then switch.
apure: a stock that the manipulators like. made a lower high after rebounding from 125/200 avg.
support should be 75 avg, looks a bit on a st-uptrend, but volume too weak, so I don't think it can sustain. better stay away.
pe: a kind of downchannel since june, below all major avgs, wait for 1.35 to break and add if 75 avg is broken or buy very low (below 1).
vng: no idea about this one
umi: good for lt with support at 1, worth a try as it could take off soon.
loxley: just broke recently above all major averages, worth a try. next stop around 2.3-2.4
stec: hold and raise your lpp acc. to scrt4u's advise. it is now at the 125 avg which might be a short barrier.
To Scrt4u
Thanks for your analysis of UMS.
Can you advise where we can view the charts you mention? Possibly you could put a link on your site where we can see historical charts as the SET site is sadly lacking in this.
UMS still seems to be going up. I would like to look at a chart to consider your technical advice about drawing lines on previous tops etc.
Also value your advice on TOG which to me also looks good on fundamentals
Peter C
To Peter C.,
Ask your broker where to look at the chart. They charge you commission and of course you are entitled to access the chart.
I have uploaded a weekly chart under this thread for your info.
This thread is closed. Please move to Stocks discussion No. 10 - 2007.
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