Stocks discussion No.8 - 2007
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Labels: Stock Discussion
posted by scrt4u @ Wednesday, August 01, 2007
118 Comments
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118 Comments:
SET index is now testing the previous low support which is around 25 days moving average. From 29-30-2007 to now, SET has broken the 25 days moving average only one time but moved above it the next trading day (14-06-2007). SET trade volume continues to shrink. Will this 25 DMA line be a support or not. Let's MM show you.
MDX wow
There's always 2 sides of the answers.
1) Investors will start to sell before they losses more and more, which causes the whole SET to drop more.
2) Some investors will wipe out all the cheap stocks and try to turn the tide.
Of course, everyone would try the later, but it's never easy unless you're one with huge financial aid.
Investors "could" however, contact with their brokers so to get information on the stocks that has been bought by "heavy" waller investors.
and hopefully, they will post here so we all may be able to share some valuable ideas.
scrt4u- you picking up any cheap stocks yet or are you waiting like everyone else?
DB
To DB,
SET has not moved back to 25% moving average like the previous down broken. Wait and see.
SET is going to test 800. If 800 fails to support, then next support is probably 777.
PTL doing great!
PTL: yes, it is doing well. Move LPP to 6.10 or higher. If 6.10 breaks downward, take at least part of your profit. Enjoy! :)
picked some ASL as thought it was good price 1.04. wish me luck.
looking for some better fundmtl stks with low p/e, know of any??
DB
DB, you'd better use tight stop for your ASL or set stop at 1.01. Good luck.
Zorro whats up with PATKL-W1 ??
was trading @ 1.20 back about 5 months ago, now its 0.02 !!
James
SET continues to test support at 800, then 777.
TMT: brokeout. If chase, set tight stop. If 4.44 breaks downward, exit. Good luck.
BROCK: who is interested in this stock? brokeout for two days. If you have it, move LPP to 1.36 or higher.
patkl-w1 will expire in 6 weeks and suspended in about 2 or so.
as the ex-price is 5 and the motherstock trades at 2.9 the warrant will expire worthless
zorro, could you give us some of your picks for warrants as some seem to be weathering well during this time.
thanks
DB
your view SMIT, PRO & PAE thx.
ueda
To ueda,
SMIT: brokeout. Move LPP to 2.20. If this 2.2 breaks down, lock profit.
PRO: seems rebouncing. Set LPP/stop at 1.20.
PAE: Seems a correction. You can lock your profit if you still have.
BROCK: move LPP to 1.46 or higher. Enjoy! :)
only SMIT 2.16 broke out today while my other port BBL 124, LH 7.35 & FNS 11.5 still in red huhuhu
sam
patkl-w1
hold the phone zorro
big play made on this warrant to go up 50%. It aint dead yet brother :)
Big hands again? Big sell off tomorrow afte it goes to 0.05 I would imagine. Who knows.
easy for patkl-w1 to go up 50 or 100 % if someone stupid buys in. more likely to go down further.
other warrants: better watch the technicals individually.
Blue Knobhead loves GENCO
PRO: Move LPP to 1.26.
SET: It seems 800 has some support after two gapp-downs.
GEN: rebouncing for 2nd day. If chase, use tight stop. Good luck.
FANCY: seems rebouncing. If chase, set tight stop or at 1.83 Good luck.
set rebounded from rsi(14)at 40, a number that seems to be significant as it never went below since beginning 2007 and rebounded several times from there. 50 day avg might have helped as well.
still a top target pointing to 780 where a former 3 year resistance now should give a support.
as long as foreigners are selling, a rebound will be short lived.
TOG???
your views on
JUTHA
SVI
PS looking good
DB
To DB,
JUTHA: still under moving average of 10, 25 days. Not moved out of the downtrend channel.
SVI: It seems in wave 3, relative big volume but seem lack energy to break the previous high, probably a double top. Wait and see.
PS: Yes, it's looking nicer than the the two you mentioned.
SCP: rebouncing. If chase, set stop above 25 days moving average. Good luck.
SET: It was tricky. Yestoday it moved up but today it crashed down. It seem going to test 800 again.
One of the factor that drops SET is the "law" that the government is doing regarding foreigner's authority in a company.
I've been trying to catch DTAC at around 41 during the last hour of the exchange today, however it seems to keep rebouncing around 41.25-41.75
There are more people buying stocks than selling today, so SET is close to rebouncing again, or maybe tomorrow, of course, we'll see what happens to Dow Jones tonight.
Market strategy: Assume the position :)
going down, 780 looks likely??
any buyers out there?
SET: it made another gap-down today, going to test 75 days moving average. If it fails to support, it will probably be moving down to 700.
TGPRO: looking interesing. If you are not sure, don't do this super short term play. Good luck.
RRC had rebounced back to where the original price just 2 hours before the market closes.
The same for DTAC.
So I'm still pursuing for RRC and DTAC's, this time lower.
And again, SET still depends on Monday's Dow Jones index as SET will open again at Tuesday.
yes interesting times ahead,
so much for the optimism this year.
better to weather the storm and batten down until clear skies otherwise shes gonna take you alive. I see theres no recommended cooking stocks as the chefs have exited. Perhaps we all better order salad for now :p
After some discussion with brokers, unless Monday's Dow Jones value rises, investors might just stop risking and held more cash than shares, as what they said :
"Having cash is safer than holding shares for now."
The SET might have a crazy increase after 19th August, depending on the result, as well as how the "mob" will fare.
yeah i also did cut loss some, only hold 2 BIGC & SMIT...keep calm & be patient until 2-3 wks ahead
ueda
Market strategy: Drink heavily. :)
You must have guts to ride on the strom then you will be awarded
PR
im here in shanghai, people don't even understand what's subprime or why many scare of US mortage so market seems brighter here...
you need to turn your face & learn from china in believing your own rather than depend on others though you're a small country like thai
Im sure if we had the same amount of local investors as china we wouldnt have this mess. foreigners pulling out in droves! im sure it wont be long before they return as the US housing market wont recover from this for years, asia is the new focus for investment, and im sure thailand will be part of the sucess due to it overall bargain prices.
DB
i think the market strategy is to accumalate stocks in low cap companies that make profit with a low p/e in times like this, they may not make huge gains as like some discussed here but most are undervalued so a bargain. also you wont need to check here day after day to see how its fared as in the long run it will go up.
tell me if im wrong.
panic selling by ppl offloading junk to reduce their positions has made most of the speculative stocks and big caps tumble
Buying now may be a little early. You might want to consider how much employment and spending was linked to a global low interest rate property boom.
SET is touching 75% moving average line as blindly guessed. I blindly guess this line is not strong enough to support SET which is most probably going to test 700.
TR: If you have this stock, take profit today. It gapped up alot but I doubt it can take out the previous high in this bearish market. Take profit now.
JCT: if you have this stock, take profit today although it tries to break out.
Regarding Sanghai's post :
A Thai Minister once said.
"We have neither Nuclear or big funds, how can one such as us go against 'the will' ?"
I personally disagree how Thailand SET depends on foreigners as well, but at the same time, there's nothing we can do as local investors are more to "gamblers" than investors who quickly retreats when there are shocking news or the some.
Thus reason why the rich are rich and the poor are too poor.
DTAC : Might drop to 38-39 per share, when it drops there, go for it, will still depends on the overall SET value.
so quite i believe everyone in this blog had stucked or cut loss :p
better buy gold :)
the gap from june has been closed now and we are at 50 % between december low and recent high. a point for the brave to buy but 690- 700 would be a strong support.
Wow, SET is really going to test 700 like a falling knife. If 690-700 can not stop the falling, SET is probably going to test 666 or even 600. Just blind guess. :)
guys let's sing a song "how deep is your loss" :)
miu
fcuk, this is getting worst by the day, however there is an upside to this...makes the SET look even more attractive once it turns. Bargains galore for the earlybirds and ones with big balls.
Could be early as next week after the ref. vote but that might be a fairytale, now time to watch a dvd instead....perhaps Wallstreet ;)
DB
Always remember : When every broker suddenly wakes up and proclaims that SET will hit 900-1000 by end of year, then you know the party is over.
Just as when KIMENG says to buy, the real meaning is "please buy because we wish to sell"
Tipster
tipster, you are dead on. look at the date when tisco published the 1000 question (also posted here on the blog). few days later and the set started its fall.
short rebound now ahead, as the set made a hammer. maybe it can close the gap at 770. time for a bid day trading.
Zorro/Scrt4U
What is your view on TTA ? The Baltic Index is making new highs daily yet this is beaten down. Looks to be another ATC type of stock. What do you think ?
Tipster
To Tipster,
This fall is majorly caused by the subpremium crisis in USA. SET keeps falling like a hammer. In a TA view, TTA is now around 75 days moving average. Yestoday's trade volome was relatively big. Probably there is some support around 40. If you try your luck, set stop at 40. Good luck.
APURE: seems rebouncing. It you feel like trading, try this one with tigh stop and small position. Good luck.
BTC: seems reset to its previous cooking platform. You can try to accumulate some with 0.94 as stop.
CCP: looks similar as BTC. Use tight stop and small position. Good luck.
If you are not confident of your super short play, you'b better wait for safer opportunities.
other market nikkei, hk, spore loss -5%!!
prepare for free fall at 2nd session
not bad set up nearly 3% in 3 mins
still early to tell as this could be short lived. It will depend on the foreign $$ staying or leaving, but so far so good.Thailand still has the cheapest bargains out there so Im buying....soon.
scrtu/zorro what are your thoughts?
DB
DB: today SET looks nice. It seems that the central banks' rescuing funding the financial system started stablizing the market.
As long as you can set up a "profit cusion" as a "protecting shield", it is great. Many 3% makes big percentage gain. Keep on your good play. Cheers.
APURE: good try. Move LPP to 3.00
TCC: brokeout. If you chase, set stop at 1.75 Good luck.
THL: seems rebouncing. Resistance around 2. If you chase, set tight stop.
PE and PT: up quite lot in the past today. If you have them, set tigh LPP to protect your gain.
i wish i hv some PE & PT :)
bought a bit MAJOR & KH this morning, last wk got hit & cut loss much on TT&T & AH...anyway still happy overall profitable here
ueda
foreigners show small net buy today after several days of heavy selling.
SET corrected again today.
THL: good chase. Move LPP to 10 days moving average (1.69).
RASA: brokeout. It looks in high price area. If you are not sure, do not chase. If you chase, set tight stop. Good luck.
TCC: corrected today but it stays still above the 1.75 which is the important support line.
looked big hand to pull down market until Aug29th so they can buy cheap new ETF SET50, dont you think so??
miu
To miu,
Maybe that is one of the factors.
MDX: seems breaking out. If chase, tight stop to safeguard your principal. Good luck.
CCP: looks interesting. If try, set stop at 1.38 Good luck.
Wow, MDX is today's gain star. I hope you had some after my call above. Now move LPP to 3.50 Enjoy!:)
MDX: move your LPP to 3.56. Enjoy! :) This is real time advice.
Pretty accurate, MDX is now 3.66
Thanks for the advise.
Er, hello, exports have just declined 5% and that was the last leg the Thai economy was standing on. Property will be affected worldwide, just as Thailand benefited from global property boom, so it will get effect from bust. This Paiboon character is either a complete idiot or he has big clients who need suckers to sell to. This is a Global suckers rally. US delinquent loans have jumped 36% last quarter to $66b - the highest monthly increase since 1990
http://www.reuters.com/article/governmentFilingsNews/idUSN2243872620070823
Fundamentals 'still strong'
Thai market in good shape to bounce back: analystsPublished on August 23, 2007
Having withstood the aftershocks from the sub-prime-mortgage debacle, the Thai stock market sees light at the end of the tunnel.
With strong market fundamentals, analysts believe local stocks will again hit the road running. Tisco Securities managing director Paiboon Nalinthrangkurn is even optimistic the Stock Exchange of Thailand Index will rise to 800-850 points this year.
In Thailand, the panic over the US sub-prime crisis merely reflects the movement of hedge-fund money, said Paiboon. He pointed out that in June and July, Bt40 billion of the Bt60-billion net buy in the stock exchange was from hedge funds. Paiboon said that by this month, there had appeared a Bt40-billion net-sale position, which might correspond to these funds withdrawing their money once the sub-prime torrent subsided on Wall Street.
Siam City Securities managing director Sukit Udomsirikul predicts that in a little over a month, we will see a worldwide recovery.
Generally, Thai share prices were definitely affected, but that was in line with the country's economic slowdown, Sukit said.
"Earnings of listed companies still have good prospects," said Paiboon.
But Sukit said the sub-prime defaults did hit some business sectors in Thailand, such as exports, banking and property development. Certain exporters may face difficulty, because those affected have tightened their purse strings. Banks, too, will take this as a wake-up call and become more cautious in lending, especially in the current investment climate and particularly to developers, Sukit added.
It is a domino effect. RealtyTrac data show that last month, there was a 98-per-cent year-on-year jump in filing for repossessions: 179,599 houses repossessed or their mortgages foreclosed.
SCB Quant Asset Management managing director Paritat Lerngutai said US housing prices had hit rock bottom. He believes repossession figures will tally up to 2 million units by early next year.
Paritat said effects should be minimal, in that mortgages only make up 12 per cent of the US$13-trillion (Bt448 trillion) loan market. Paiboon said the damage from sub-prime mortgages totalled $200 billion to $250 billion but downplayed the impact on Asian economies.
It is a good opportunity for Thai investors to buy now, said Paiboon, adding that the general election would boost investor confidence.
Somruedi Banchongduang,
Ki Nan Tsui
The Nation
ASIMAR: after tow days of pullback, it seems starting going up. Now it is above moving average lines of 10, 75 days. If you chase, set stop at 1.18 or higher. Good luck.
MDX: wow, this stock gains another 10% today. It's already up 25% since our call (it was only 3.24 when we called). If you bought at the time, now you are in profit of about 20%. Move LPP to 3.85. Enjoy!:)
MDX: this is real time advice. Move LPP to 4.10 or higher. Enjoy! :)
MDX: move LPP to 4.30 or higher.
your views on TOG, TYONG & PTL thx!
ueda
To ueda,
TOG: a little late to jump in.
PTL: It failed to break out today. wait and see.
TYONG: interesting. You can accumulate with stop at 0.94
Good luck.
TCC: move LPP to 1.90 or higher.
N-PARK: seems ready to rebounce. If are confident and try, set tight stop at 0.20
MCOT: seems rebouncing. If chase, set stop at 26.75
WIN: if you have this stock, move LPP to 0.96 Enjoy and good luck.
MDX: we gained one in and out. Now if you like, you can re-enter for second cycle with a stop at 4.00. If 4.00 breaks, RP or exit. Good luck.
TYONG: seems ready to go up.
MDX: re-enter with stop at 4
MPT: seems trying to break out again.
SAM: broke out. If chase, set stop at 6.8 or higher.
Any idea to S2Y ?
To andreas,
S2Y had a relatively trade volume yestoday. It seemed that some STers took profit. If it gets below yestoday's close, probably it will pull back with some correction.
scrt4u, thank you.
SAM: move LPP to 7.50 or higher. Enjoy after your brave chase! :)
MDX: Yestoday's chase re-entry is proved correct. This is real time advice. Move LPP to 4.32. Enjoy! :)
MDX: real time advice. Move LPP to 4.40 or higher
MDX: move LPP to 4.45 or higher.
MDX: real time advice. Move LPP to 4.50 or higher. Enjoy! :)
Now you can see MDX flying realtime.
What a nice day trading realtime show for MDX! If you cannot make profit by reading this blog, we do not know where and how you can.
TYONG: Don't say we didn't tell you this stock is ready to go up. American bighands will baloon it up. If you like, you can quietly sit at the table but be alerted they will make another shakeout if neccessary. Mark our words and wait and see! Good luck!
ACL: brokeout. If chase, stop at 6.25 or small loss acceptable to you. Good luck.
EASON looked interesting!
ueda
To ueda,
Yes, EASON broke out. If chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
UCOM: price dived vertically. When its price is reset, you can considering re-entry and regain.
eason: bought some as well today.
ucom: watch the news from yesterday. there is some delisting and conversion/share swap coming soon.
UCOM, the news today:
DTAC will issue new ordinary shares to
UCOM's shareholders who tender their shares under the exchange ratio of
1 share of UCOM ( Par value Baht 10 each) for 1.95 new shares of DTAC
(Par value Baht 2 each).Fractions of a new share will be rounded down
and no cash consideration will be offered by DTAC. This offer stands
for 25 business days, being from July 25, 2007 through August 30, 2007.
SET would like to informed shareholders of UCOM,who intend to sale these
securities to DTAC, to commit the transaction within the tender offer period's
deadline of August 30, 2007. --> And those investors who intend to purchase the
securities of UCOM on the SET from August 27, 2007 onwards that they will not
have adequate time to tender these securities to DTAC within the tender offer
period's deadline of August 30, 2007. <--
CEI: this stock seems rebouncing. If you chase, set a tight stop or small loss acceptable to you. Good luck.
NWR: looks interesting again. Stop 0.55. Good luck.
TYM: looks interesting. If chase, stop at 3 Good luck.
BCP: this stock broke out its right shoulder pattern. If you chase, stop at today's low. Good luck.
MPT: big trade volume today after one-day suspense for internal transaction. It signals what? Wait and see. Good luck.
EASON: After yestoday's brokout, it gapped up today. Now move LPP to 2.78
SC: looks interesting again. It seems there is strong support around 7.75-8.00. Good luck.
@scrt4u, SAM. Mean month August, right :) ?
To andreas,
Yes, I mean month August.
Case study of SAM:
We recommended this stock SAM
-----------------------------------
SAM: broke out. If chase, set stop at 6.8 or higher.
Monday, August 27, 2007 12:17:00 PM
-----------------------------------
If you bought after reading this advice, you could get some shares at 7.15 (check the 15 minutes chart).
Now please look at the daily chart, you can see 3 continuous strong candlesticks on 24, 27, 28 August 07. Yestoday the candlestick showed a long upper handle, this means the punters are a little tired and need a rest. Today you see the price moved down. So you'd better take some profit today and let your money take a rest too.
If you took profit today, you have made about 11% profit. This is achieved within 4 trading days. Not bad.
Hope helpful to you. Happy punting! :)
Another case study:
We recommended Asimar on 23 August 07. Proof as below:
-----------------------------------
scrt4u said...
ASIMAR: after tow days of pullback, it seems starting going up. Now it is above moving average lines of 10, 75 days. If you chase, set stop at 1.18 or higher. Good luck.
Thursday, August 23, 2007 12:28:00 PM
----------------------------------
Today (31 August 07) ASIMA brokeout its resistant line at 1.27 and sealing the gap with healthy trade volume.
If you bought after our call, you are now in profit of 10%. Now move LPP to 1.27 or higher.
It seems that you are looking how we do it over our shoulders. Where could you get this advice for FREE?
Case study of stock "TYM"
We recommended this stock "TYM". Proof as below:
-----------------------------------
scrt4u said...
TYM: looks interesting. If chase, stop at 3 Good luck.
Thursday, August 30, 2007 4:25:00 PM
-----------------------------------
If you took our advice and bought some shares yestoday (30 August 07), you are now in profit of over 3%. This is achieved in one trading day. Not bad.
Now set LPP/Stop at 3.16 Enjoy!:)
KMC: looks interesting.
TT&T: seems trying to breakout. Most probably UP !!! If you try, stop at 1.2 Good luck.
TT&T: good try! It brokeout up as guessed. Enjoy! :)
SPALI: brokeout downtrend channel. If chase, set stop at 3.5 Good luck.
This thread is closed. Please move to "Stocks discussion No.9 - 2007".
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