Stocks discussion No.11 - 2007
Now it's November of 2007. We are approaching the end of 2007. SET broke up 900 last month and now in a correction. Could SET break up 1000 within this year? Let's be patient to watch.
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Case study: TYM
we recommended this stock and advised you accordingly.
The chart shows you how to enter, cut loss, re-enter and
take 50% profit: ( Click picture to enlarge )
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Case study: TYM
we recommended this stock and advised you accordingly.
The chart shows you how to enter, cut loss, re-enter and
take 50% profit: ( Click picture to enlarge )
------------------------------------------------------------------------Email this Thai Stock blog (forum) to my friend >>>
Labels: Case Study
posted by scrt4u @ Thursday, November 01, 2007
171 Comments
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171 Comments:
DTAC: if you bought this stock today, set stop at 39.50. Good luck.
PAE: seems trying to rebound. If try, set small loss stop. Good luck.
YNP: tried to break the downtrend channel but fail on 1 Nov.07. Keep an eye on it.
SMM: brokeout. Move LPP to 0.73 or higher. Enjoy!:)
KWH: pau, did you re-enter this stock. If you did, you profited again. Enjoy!:)
LST: if you have this stock, use tight LPP. Enjoy! :)
TRAF: use tight LPP to enjoy!:)
scrt4y yes,I did with 1.34 and sold out now.
thanks
pau
SMM: move LPP to 0.80 Enjoy!:)
scrt4u is csp-w1 finally waken up ??
what about cfresh,sport-w2,tgci,psap ?
thanks,
pau
To pau,
PSAP: probably preparing another run. If try, set stop at 1.30.
TGCI: in history low now. If try, set stop at 0.87.
CFRESH: looks interesting.
As to the warrants, please ask zorro for opinions.
Good luck.
LST: take some profit today.
to zorro u still have csp-w1 and is it finaly waken up? what about sport-w2,ascon-w1,eason-w1 ?
thanks
pau
MPT: interesting. stop = 2.54 Good luck.
csp-w1: i sold when it broke my suggested stop of 0.7 and it is still in downtrend.
sport-w2: too expensive due to low volatility of sport (b&s value=0.07)
ascon-w1 is interesting and at the horizontal support but better cut loss if 2.66 is broken, you will lose 2 % only.
eason and w1 are looking like changing the trend to upwards. the warrant is in the money so will be good in a st or mt uptrend, for lt the high dividend of the mothershare would be a bonus. the 200 day avg at 2.75 will be an important resistance for eason.
SMIT: gapped up, brokeout. If chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
PAE: seems moving up slowly. Move LPP to 0.97
Warning!
TYONG: It's touching the important support 0.94. If it breaks down, reduce position or exit.
SOLAR: seems trying to break out "triangle pattern". While SET is falling down, dare you to chase? Up to yourself. If not sure, better watch it!
SINGHA: keeps moving up although SET is down. Move LPP to 3.25 Enjoy!:)
DISTAR: interesting again. Stop =0.5 Good luck.
SCAN: brokeout and gapped up. If chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
NCH: brokeout, stot tight if chase.
TRAF: lacking momentum. Move LPP to 4.00 or Reduce position.
Important news today about GSTEEL.
This company was suffering because of difficulties to refinance debt used to purchase NSM. The 10.50% USD bond due 2010 that quoted 100 before the credit crunch started past August collapsed to a low of 83.50 as it seemed impossibile to renegotiate the 120 million USD bridge loan due this December.
But just today the company announced it was granted a 100 million USD loan due 2010 at SIBOR + 4.50%.The bond bounced back to 91 today, while the share is at an all time low of 0.79
Thanks for your news. Please visit:
http://www.set.or.th/set/nvdr/nvdrholder.do
Type GSTEEL in the blank and press "enter" and you can see the bighands there. Don't worry. If the sky falls, the bighands hold it up.
Make your own judgement!
TR: took previous high. Stop at 54 if chase. Good luck.
TMB: gapped up after XR. Stop at 1.65 if chase.
NEP: interesting. stop=0.45 if you try. A 6% risk.
hello.
any opinion on S2Y, MDX, STEC?
many thanks!
tingtong
s2y: there is something like an uptrend line since august, use 1.65 as stop and you won't lose much.
mdx: developed a downtrend, maybe wait for 3 to get in or buy on a large dip.
stec: looks like a bearish triangle forming with sup at 5.5, better stay away.
anyone know what happens with sam-2days floor ??!
Scrt4u what about aj,kmc,?
thanks
pau
Is it time to reenter TT&T?
To pau,
AJ: seems preparing a rebounce.
KMC: Buy with stop at 0.96
Good luck.
To Anonymous,
TT&T: 1.01 -1.02 could be one of the re-entries. But if this support can not stop the fall, next support would probably be around 0.70 or a little higher.
TMB: move LPP to 0.70 or higher.
PAE: move LPP to 0.99
GSTEEL: move LPP to 0.81 or higher
DE: rebouncing. If chase, stop tight.
NCH: move LPP to 3.28
zorro, what do you think SAM? Why has it been moving down crazily?
sam: not sure beside the warrant issue (xw). there was an intraday crash of -20% the day before xw but it recovered and closed flat. did a bighand got the day wrong, gave order to unload and later realized the mistake and had to buy back to get the warrants?
the fall on the xw day was predictable, but why did it continue? was the stock overpriced due to the warrant issue and there are too many people who bought the stock to get the warrant and now need to get rid of it? many possibilities.
anyway, today it could approach the lt-support and might be a good intraday rebound play. just use a tight stop and don't leave your computer.
zorro, thanks for your analysis.
DE: good chase. Move LPP to 0.78 or higher.
What are your comments on TRUE?
Thanks,
KM
TRUE: it's falling. Keep away it for a moment, KM.
DISTAR: it seems 0.50 is a strong support. Good luck.
AMC: seems rebouncing. Stop tight if chase. Good luck.
PAE: moving up very well. Move LPP to 1.25 or higher. Enjoy!:)
NCH: Some profit taken away today. Move LPP to 3.45. Enjoy!:)
TT&T: probably you can take it when it around 0.70 if the major players keeps smashing it down.
scrt4u
SAM:Comp Ancmnt to clrfy rumor.. ?
could you tell us your view
And.
To And,
SAM: Trade volume look nice yestoday and today. It seems having a rebounce. You may chase with tight stop if you like. Good luck.
PAE: move LPP to 1.05 (1.25 is a typo, sorry)
AMC: a good chase, move LPP to 2.5 or higher.
NEP: started moving up as we expected. Move LPP to 0.50 Good luck.
SAM entrd at 3.62
Thanks scrt4u
And
zorro WIN finally shoot up...slowly accumulated around 0.9-0.93 since last mth :)
adv resistance level?sell or hold
not bad to cover my losses with MAJOR & TT&T
ueda
WIN: if you have this stock, take some profit today.
NWR: looking interesting. Good luck.
scrt4u would like to sell WIN but trading was halt..hope more good news coming up
btw need adv HMPRO & PLE, i think it's worth to slowly accumulate too
ueda
CPF - This stock is definately going up. Active trade recently. Good play towards the election run-up. Good luck.
UMI san
To Anonymous, WIN is in trouble. Seems that the major holder is bailing out to fund election campaign. Recommend you "jump-ship" at the next chance if it comes around.
UMI san
scrt4u, could you comment on SAM..
And.
scret4u what about ever,kmc,nncl,rasa ?
thanks
pau
To And,
SAM: moving healthily. Move LPP to 4.14. Enjoy!
To pau,
ever: Relatively gig volume today. Stopt tight if you chase.
kmc: Enter with small loss stop.
nncl: Buy with stop at 2.18
rasa: wait and see.
NEP: moving up well. Move LPP to 0.53 or higher.
IEC: keep an eye on this stock.
To pau, Relatively big volume today. Sorry for the typo.
TT&T: interesting. Stop tight if try. Good luck.
tried RS tdy after sold my WIN this morning, missed to sold higher yesterday
ueda
is it worth to enter TOG, NEP now
psap could be interesting
pau
To ueda,
nothing to regret because you have made profit on WIN.
To anonymous,
I do not suggest you enter TOG now. I think NEP is better than TOG.
To pau,
Yes, PSAP looks good.
SC: shooting up. Take your profit today.
WIN, MLINK and TRAF are all Wongsawat (Thaksin's sister) companies. Suspect they are bailing in fear of asset seizure rather than election related ramp.
To punta, thanks for your kind info.
WIN: we recommended twice on both 11 and 19 September 2007. It is now up 47%. Not bad.
SC: I think I also called SC but can remember when. Anyway, it has brought you some profit if your take some today.
WIN: move LPP to 1.25 or higher. Enjoy! :)
missed WIN party! hmm difficult to catch moment on such speculative one..might re-entry in future
scrt4u, your view on LVT, EMC & TFD
ueda
Scrt4u
Thank you very much.. enjoyed SAM party very well.. did exactly what you told.
And
scrt4u, any wiew on IEC, maybe the story behind todays sudden rise?
tingtong
any others stock in shin's circle??
scrt4u what about umi ,tgci ?
Thanks
pau
IEC:
07:34 15/11/2007
IEC : Term Renewal of the Audit Commitee
and
07:34 15/11/2007 SET-IEC : Report on Operating Results in Q3/2007
Ending 30 September
The Consolidated Financial Statement
Quarter 3 For 9 Months
Year 2007 2006 2007 2006
Net profit (loss) (215,424) (598,636) (353,328) (687,264)
EPS (baht) (0.12) (0.38) (0.20) (0.44)
SAM???another blow for speculator!
Tingtong,
IEC: I called your attention to this stock. I don't know the story behind but blindly guessed it would go up. Move LPP to 1.10. Enjoy!
scrt4u said...
IEC: keep an eye on this stock.
Wednesday, November 14, 2007 4:36:00 PM
To pau,
UMI: interesting. Enter at tight stop. Good luck.
TGCI: use same stratety as UMI. Good luck.
SAM: get ready to re-enter. If you are not good at short-term play, forget it.
If you have the gut to try it, use TIGHT stop or stop at 2.44. Good luck. Really a speculative stock.
Scrt4u, Zorro
Few weeks back I predicted Psl 26 and TTA 46. Seems fast approaching targets. At those prices, they will trade at 7x estimated 2007 earnings and 5x estimated 2008 earnings. Should be a good entry point if interested to get divident of around 6.5% . What does yr blind guess, techinal chart indicate ?
Thanks
Stone
To pau,
PSAP: If you bought this stock, congrats. Move LPP to 1.40 or higher.
Scrt4u
MPT
You must admit this is one of your biggest mistakes. From trading pattern it suggested a big move up but takeover has finished this story. The big move up will now happen but in hands of new buyer.
Bought at 3+, averaged at 2.6+ and will end up selling at loss. Can afford the loss but still this stock shows that cannot win them all.
Mpt loser.
TT&T: I called your attention to this stock last Thursday. Now it started moving up. Move LPP/stop to 1.02 Good luck.
---- proof -----
scrt4u said...
TT&T: interesting. Stop tight if try. Good luck.
Thursday, November 15, 2007 4:40:00 PM
----- proof -----
To Mpt loser,
Of course I make mistakes. That is why I almost always offer you a STOP when we recommend a stock. I think MPT is not game over. Be patient and you can get back your loss. Good luck. Defeat your bad mood now. Don't use big position when you are not sure.
MPT: Got in at 2.50
There is no loss for me.
I still need it to rise another 50% to break even, bought on previous recommendation and caught on the hop...
crosspost...was referring to TT&T
Scrt4u
MPT : game is over because they issued tender offer and announce plan to delist. if small shareholder hold on to shares, sure to lose all once delisted.
I don't grudge your mistake because last year I made more than 3 times my money on Gen by following yr advice. But of course, I keep holding when they try to shakeout and not cut my loss.
MPT loser
To stone,
My blind guess as follows:
PSL: looks some support at your target 26. You may consider buy some now and set tight stop.
TTA: I think it's still a falling knife.
Scrt4u
Thanks .
TTA : my target is 46 (now it's 53 ) seems some way off. Falling knife because totally controlled by hedge funds. they will knock it to near death by shorting and then buy back because at the end of the game, it's still highly profitable business - at least upto 2008 end.
psl- may slip below 26 - perhaps 24but my guess they will do it to buy cheap shares. already both these are being heavily shorted by big funds.
Stone
To MPT loser,
We all should learn from mistakes. Cutloss is usually better than average down.
I cut loss my DTAC today. I admit the big players win this time. My loss is 6%, affordable to me.
To Andreas,
If what Mpt loser said MTP will be 'delisted is correct, you'd better avoid this stock.
what wl be the next top gainer after WIN, MLINK, PSAP, IEC??
i wish can catch big fish oneday to cover my loss
sam
if you want to make a quick and big gain, look out for the stocks that had a 1 day run and made the next day a correction.
look at mlink, for example: volume and price surged on 14th and on 15th was the correction which would be the point of entry. the next day it started to fly.
today another correction so it should do well tomorrow but the volume peak on 16 could have been the end.
ever shows a similar pattern. sometimes it is good to enter for longterm, other times it is just a 1 day play.
as iec had its run today, it would be good to buy into a correction tomorrow and sell on wednesday.
but there are no guaranteed performances, so be careful.
Scrt4u
Keep in mind that Merrill and other US banks are some of the big losers of subprime crisis but they are also the big players in Asian/worldwide stocks. Seems natural that they have to sell Asia/worldwide to book profits to reduce the big losses coming up for 4th qtr.
Stone
scrt4u ,yesterday around 16.00 hour shortly after your replay about psap I posted : today I took profit at iec and psap and played a little bit and
in general what is your advice about SET after dropping almost 100 points and RSI below 20".
It was in your blogg but today it disappeared -any idea why ?
thanks
pau
To pau,
Have checked your post was already published? Sometimes it is not published even you click the publish button.
I did not see your post yestoday.
pau, it is difficult to predict SET. Let SET show you the trend.
To Stone,
Thanks for your anylasis. Probably they will have to sell.
TT&T: keeps moving up although SET down. Move LPP to 1.07. Enjoy!:)
NEP: Move LPP to 0.54 Enjoy!:)
TRAF: move LPP to 7.30 or higher.
IEC: move set LPP to 1.10
TYM: wow, this stock flying finally. Move LPP to 3.20 or higher.
CSP: it's worth your attention again.
entered SAM 2.42 TYM 3.24 also WIN 1.22 & prepare to unload tmrw
sand
NEP: moving quite well. Move LPP to 0.57 or higher. Enjoy!:)
SAM: to sand, set your stop at 2.48
TYM: move LPP to 3.50 or higher. Enjoy! :)
TYM: today it took out the previous high. Good! Now move LPP to 3.65 or higher. Enjoy! :)
TMB: It's worth your attention again.
sold TYM @closing price to cover loss when bough again WIN & SAM this morning shhtt
sand
set will reach soon the top target around 785 which collides with a possible rising support since march. good chance to get into some blue chips at this level.
is it worth to buy TYM???seem still hot
sam
To sam,
I do not suggest you to buy TYM now although it's hot.
TYM: for those shareholders who bought earlier, pls move LPP to 4.0 or higher. You may also take some profit today. Enjoy!:)
MDX: would this stock play the same trick as TYM? Wait and see.
TYM: did you see? Just after I posted my suggestion to take some profit and move LPP to 4.0, its price crached. It should be the time to correct.
UMS: charming. If you like, buy with tight stop. Good luck.
DTAC: this stock seems preparing a rebounce. Just blindly guess. Make your own judgement.
sam: did we see the alltime low and a double bottom is forming? bullish divergence of the rsi. scrt4u, what do you think?
many gambling stocks like tym, psap, win, mlink and sam closed several % higher than they traded just before closing. interesting.
Scrt4u
Both TTA and PSL hit target. Perhaps may go down a bit more to B 44.50 and B 24. At this price range, both are good buys. Dividend yield 7.5% for PSL . News will not be bad forever. As the old saying goes, buy on weakness sell on strength. I expect that in few months, both will trade substantially higher.
Dare to enter ?
Stone
To Stone,
PSL: I suggest you buy PSL with stop at 24.30 Good luck.
UMS: good chase. Move LPP/stop to 26.75 Enjoy!
DTAC: started rebounce.
stone.
i was happy with TTA as it was.
bought some yesterday at 46, unloaded it today at 49. that is 6%.
your 46 was holding perfect, never was near to my stop.
thanks
tingtong
sctr4u
what would you suggest with IEC, S2Y, and RASA?
many thanks,
tingtong
SOLAR: seems rebouncing from double-bottom. Stop 2.5 if chase. Good luck.
To tingtong,
IEC: tried to take out resistance at 1.19 but failed today. Probably it will continue to try to take out the resistance next trading. If you have it, move LPP to 1.11
S2Y: big rally finished on 4 July 2007. Now it seems preparin another rally? Not very sure. If you have this stock, move LPP/stop to 1.75
RASA: My broker suggested this stock but chart shows that it's been in downtrend. Keep it away at the moment.
zorro, you catched one of the most important indicators. The sudden increase of volume b4 closing often indicates a rebounce or preparaion for an up.
TRAF: seems needing a correction. Move LPP up tightly. Enjoy!:)
how about CVD, LANNA, RCL?
sam
scrt4u,
Could you tell us what is happening to EPCO.
And.
To sam
CVD: it's in uptrend but now in a correction or shakeout. If you chase, stop tightly.
Lanna: up for two days from the bottom line of its uptrend channel.
RCL: the downtrend has not changed. Keep an eye on it.
EPCO: Wow! It skyrocketed (up 178%). Now you know how the insider punters has pulled your leg. When lose all your hope, they punted it to the sky!!! Congtrats to those shareholders.
MDX: wow, they played the same trick as TYM. Now move LPP to a tight point.
--------- previous post -------
scrt4u said...
MDX: would this stock play the same trick as TYM? Wait and see.
Thursday, November 22, 2007 3:57:00 PM
---------- End previous post ----
TYONG: Use tight LPP to safeguard your profit.
PAE: Move up LPP accordingly. Enjoy!:)
scrt4u, just back fr jpn...wow some smaller caps gained a lot,i think we should look for stock <1 baht or related with strong political party so it wl fly high :))
any other thoughts?MIDA?DE?UMI?
and is it risky to reenter MLINK, WIN or SC again? THX
ueda
epco: sorry to disapoint, it just went through a par change 3:1, if you got the share you will have a third of your shares at 3 times the price which means nothing really changed.
zorro, it's so disappointing.
Risk management: Cut loss, don't average down, don't catch the falling knife.
Survival first, profit next.
Without profit, you can still trade with your principal capital; without survival, you are out of the game and there is no way to make a profit.
zorro, scrt4u
EPCO
If you had 99 shares at price of0.74 then yr cost is 73.26. After recapitalizing - 3 old shares becomes 1 new share so you get 33 new shares/ Now its price 2.28 which means value is 68.40 so you lose money if holding EPCO.
Stone
My math is:
Old value: 0.74 x 99 = 73.26
New value: 2.28 x 33 = 75.24
Stone, is my math correct?
Scrt4u
Sorry you are right. in my haste I used 30 shares instead of 33 to multiply.
Looks like I'm na taek
Stone
To ueda,
DE: your pick DE is a good call. Move LPP to 0.75. Enjoy!:)
SAMCO: keep an eye on this one.
TYM: move LPP to 4.30 Enjoy!
LOXLEY: it is trying to breakout. But resistance is around 2.95
scrt4u
Do you have any view on market situation,trend..pls.
And.
To And,
It seems that SET is trying to breaking the downtrend. Just blind guess.
PAE: this stock has been doing well since our recommendation. Already up over 30%. Now move LPP to 1.20 or higher. Enjoy!:)
RASA: seems rebouncing. If chase, stop tight. Good luck.
MJD: dare to chase this stock?
PAE: move LPP to 1.25 Enjoy!
SOLAR: we called this stock on 23 Nov. 2007. It's now up about 7%.
Move LPP/stop to 2.60.
-------- proof -------------
scrt4u said...
SOLAR: seems rebouncing from double-bottom. Stop 2.5 if chase. Good luck.
Friday, November 23, 2007 4:43:00 PM
THL: interesting again. Good luck.
DISTAR: Will Phillip Securities punt this stock up? Let's wait and see.
DISTAR: Will Phillip Securities punt this stock up? Let's wait and see.
CSP: keep en eye on it. It seems moving.
To stone, I blindly guess:
PSL: seems rebouncing. Enter with tight stop. Good luck.
Check this webpage and you will probabley know why TYM is going up:
http://www.set.or.th/set/companyinfo.do?type=profile&symbol=TYM
scrt4u
TYM chkd don't understand much :(
And
To And,
It takes time to learn the fundamental analysis. I am not good at it.
DTAC: It's said DTAC is the cheapest mobile operator in Thailand in term of PE, PBV and
EV/Subscriber. It's said the target price is around Bt50.
Good luck.
CK: interesting again. Good luck.
STEC: Interesting.
and you know that BBL is the only bank that this year its EPS is much higher than that of last year but its price is lower than that of last year (same period)
posted by CHEAP
Scrt4u
are u sure you are really blindly guessing- ha ha .
you are right again about psl.
i bought since 25.50 before xd as per my target.
also have tta at 46.
this size of ships carries iron ore etc which is still hot biz.
market will always up and down ,just have to time purchase and sale.
Stone
To stone,
Based on the "50/50 math possibility", if you buy 100 times , 50 times are failure and the other 50 times are successes. As long as you cut loss SMALL and keep moving up the LPP, you can make money. So when PSL showed a seemingly double-bottom, I tossed a coin which showed win side and I published the recommendation for you to enter.
The "coin toss" does not neccessarily guarantee the entry is correct. So I offered you a tight stop advice to contain your loss. Enjoy your great entry of PSL at 25.50 with your GUT... Congrats!!! :)
MIDA: seems preparing a rebounce after down so much. Good luck. Don't forget to stop tigh if I'm wrong.
NVL: brokeout. If you chase, use small position and tight stop. Good luck.
GBX: if you chase this stock, set stop at 1.37 or higher. Good luck.
TYM: be cautious. SET is up but TYM looks lazy today. Yestoday it had a long handle of the hammer (see candlestick chart).
Sct4u
I don't make money every move.
Find the stock whose downside is 50% but upside maybe 200%. it means stock should be near historic low. then play some amt which can be afforded to lose. if down down down then it's at 50% loss. by then all shook out and if it starts to move up,we can get 200%. it needs patience, patience. last yr I could get 600% from IEC by this way . now all money x 4 is out and only I play with profit portion.
but I like yr blind guess way
Stone
Stone, your 600% profit on IEC is great. Keep on your "accumulative down 50% way" which is similar as my "blind 50/50 blind guess + coin toss".
To CHEAP,
TMB: According to the research of some stock ferms in Thailand, Bank sector will have a nice performance next year. I suggest you consider TMB.
QH: I think we recommended this stock b4. It keeps moving up. Good. It gapped up on 28 Nov.2007
Now move LPP to 2.18. Enjoy! :)
To stone,
SAM: What do you think of SAM? It crashed more than 50% if I am not wrong.
TYM: Take some profit today at least or reduce your position.
DBS told me wongsawat clans will dump their stocks once transaction finalized, beware guys!!
sam: will be ramped up by the warrant holders till the ne warrant starts trading so they can sell it with a good profit. time to load up.
To zorro,
SAM: I loaded it at 2.64 today (29 Nov.2007) after a "blind guess". Thanks for your comment.
TYONG: made over 20% on this stock within 3 days. Now move LPP to 0.95 Enjoy! :)
Bland: If you chase, stop tightly. Good luck.
TYM: look at this stock's chart today. We warned you to take your profit. If you did, today you are happy. Get ready to re-enter when price is good again. Good luck.
UMS: seems trying to breakout. Chase it with stop at 29. Good luck.
TYONG: doing very well. Move LPP to 1.00. Enjoy! :)
This thread is closed. Please move to Stocks discussion No.12 - 2007
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