Discussion Of Other Stocks No.6 - 2006
Dear Thai stock investors / traders, welcome to No.6 (June 2006).
NWR: This stock keeps falling down slowly. The first stop was 0.98, the second stop was 0.90. How low could it fall. It could possibly fall down as low as 0.30 ( like BLAND ). Who knows?! Its price moved down from 9.85 (2001) to current 0.74 (present). Fundamentally, this stock is not bad. Why does it keep falling down? Take a look at its 5-year (May 2001 - April 2006) monthly chart:
History often repeats. Could NWR's history repeat?GEN: I think this stock still worth your attention. 0.58 is a interesting point.
CP7-11: This is a quite stable stock. Has been in an uptrend channel. I think I recommended it last September. It moved up about 60% from 5 to 8. When it dipped to below 6, you should pick up some. Now keep an eye on it.
posted by scrt4u @ Thursday, June 01, 2006
97 Comments
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97 Comments:
nwr keeps falling because of the delay of mega projects. downside should not be high as insiders buy from time to time
zorro, SET is not good now. What I implied by asking the question is accumulate quietly now (of course with a stop).
i know, it is a stock to keep an eye on, maybe if set finds major support @ 660 or 680, it will be a good time to accumulate.
will check on the weekend if i can find some stocks for the list, up to now everything looks weak....
i am still holding 100% cash and am hesitating even with daytrading
just look at dcon today, ramped to the ceiling and now red. apure and ewc (the usual suspects) are rebounding, but only the big hands know when to exit.
bnt might be another target soon.
DCON: the best way to deal with this kind of stock is glue your eyes on the screen the intraday chart.
EMC: Will UOB Kay Hian ramp it up?
BNT: who will be the major punter?
NWR: move stop to 0.77
GEN: if you already get in, move stop up to 0.62
nwr good time to get in? 0.79
nwr: downchannel since november, resistance at 0.9 which is also a former horizontal support, so it will be strong, channelsupport now at 0.7, rsi shows at st bullish divergence, upside gain equal to downside risk but this ratio will become worse if the downchannel continues.
scrt4u: like any of these to play for st or mt?
acl: looks cheap
ai:reversal in the making?
ap: a bit early to tell if reboud or another plunge lies ahead
bnt: a buy if downtrend line since april is broken
emc: only on the watch list
gold: at horizontal support in weekly chart.
nsm: may-downchannel broken
match: slowly rebounding from 5 year low, macd turning
stec: wedge forming, now near 2 year low, but rising support in monthly year chart broken
susco: may-downchannel broken, hope for double bottom in weekly chart
svoa: next run started?
tt&t:cheap, but might stall at 3
tks: candidate for cooking list?
zorro, my views:
ACL: If enter, set stop at 3.86
AI: probably a reversal - broke up the small down channel. If enter, set stop at 7.
AP: looks going up. if you like, you can enter with a top at 3.22.
BNT: my question is who will be the major punter? looks tricky.
EMC: looks double-bottom. Enter with a stop at 1.28. Good luck.
GOLD: Maybe we can try with a stop at 6.45
NSM: in an uptrend. Enter with two buy-in. Stop at 0.41; resistance around 0.60
MATCH: maybe the major punters have started their punting-up. stop channel bottom line. Resistance 1.85 Good luck.
STEC: wait and see another higher low.
SUSCO: looks there is a ST rebounce. Enter with channel support as stop.
SVOA: If the last trading days are shakeout and 0.68 fomular works, the run-up should start. But the punter can use this tricky pattern to release their chips and build another lower punting platform.
TT&T: if it's cheap, you can enter with a stop 2.8. It got out of the previous downtrend channel.
TKS: Checking its M & W chart, it looks cooking. How about its fundamental?
0.68 fomular ???????
you mean 0.62 fibonacci?
bnt: i do not think that major punters will play it now, rather expect a similar rebound as apure, ewc and mme did. might be good for intraday.
tks: p/e 8.6, p/bv 1.1, not cheap, not expensive. have no more info on it.
MATCH - been watching this one. Looks like the punter pulls it up and then sells. With these small stocks you can test with your own stock and see what happens. Seems he is selling with a view to going short against port again i.e. take it down again. Just my take - could be wrong.
CITY: moved out of the downtrend channel. Looking Good.
ERAWAN: broke down channel, up. Move lpp to 4.90
POWER: keep an eye on this stock.
guys what's support level of SET for re-enter..i sold out 90% of my port tdy w/ ttl loss 5%, only left MIDA 1.79, RRC IPO 18..any comment on MIDA
sillyfools
set: major support is the big triangle at 680, but the recent top formation has a target of 660. there could be another "last chance" channelsupport at 650, but if the set drops below it then i will take a long vacation….
mida: i recommended a stop at 1.9 earlier, still in downtrend, connect february, march an may highs to get the downresistance, if this is broken it would be time to enter
BH: this stock has gained a lot since my recommendation. It seems that it has no energy to move back to its uptrend channel. Last chance to exit. It's up to yourself.
BLAND seems to be support whilst others fall around it... any comments or suggestions welcome.
BLAND: if it can not move back over 0.75, RP or exit.
bland: from phillip techie for 7.6.2006: Medium-term trend is good. Good support is 0.65 and resistance is 0.86.Medium-term buy/hold is still advised.Use 0.65 as a stoploss. As for short-term,trading buy. Resistance 0.75-0.77;support 0.72;stop 0.71.
time to load up and prey for 680 to hold...
What's happening with MPT?
mpt: had a profit warning yesterday (see set news), kelive has report today
SET: already broke its uptrend channel support (connect the two lows of July 05, Dec.05), next support is probably 630-640.
POWER: don't you think there is a possibility of rebounce? It's up to yourself in this SET-down time.
Why the market is melting down?
Stocks have been in a tailspin for a month, and the news is only going to get worse. Looking for a culprit? Start with the housing market. (By Jon Markman)
Eight hundred points in one month. That’s the unfortunate story for the Dow Jones industrials, as a stock market that was this close to hitting record levels in early May has suddenly crumbled, falling 7%.
And that’s just the Dow ($INDU). Tech stocks, as measured by the Nasdaq Composite ($COMPX), are down about 10%. Small-company stocks are down about 12%.
And it could get worse. As I suggested early last month – in this column and this journal entry -- I think there is real potential for another 10% to 20% decline over the next five months. As much as I wish that weren't the case, it seems unavoidable.
There is no shortage of culprits. The best way to think about it, though, is that all over-the-top advances in markets lead to over-the-top declines. It happened with tech stocks in 2000, and now it’s happening with real estate, international stock markets and commodities.
It’s a natural spin of the economic cycle. When people are willing to pay a lot for something that is scarce, producers make more of it. Ultimately, they produce so much of it that it loses scarcity value and, instead of a shortage, there is a glut. When smart investors detect that this has happened, or is about to happen, they flee -- and then prices collapse. It could be tulips. It could be Internet stocks. It could be new homes. It could be copper and gold.
for full article, visit:
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/SuperModels/WhyTheMarketsMeltingDown.aspx
SET: next support 630.
JAS: although SET kept falling, this stock seems to have some support at 0.42
Bland also has support... should i switch?
mickie, swithch from what stock to what stock?
Now SET is not in good mood, better leave it alone.
NWR: today's candlestick looks like a long handled hammer, could histry repeat?
bland: from phillip techie for 17.6.2006: Medium-term trend is getting good.Good support is 0.65 and resistance is 0.80.Medium-term buy/hold is still advised.Use 0.65 as a stoploss. As for short-term,sell on the rise,buy on dips. Resistance 0.73-0.75;support 0.70;stop 0.69.
nwr: i dare to call the bottom for this one.
set: yesterdays gap will be closed, sooner or later. now the set struggles at the 650 channel which is the "last chance" of survival. a new low and i will go on vacation…. or just do some intraday trading from time to time.
NWR: it is probably time to quietly buy in again. remember little by little to enter. Set stop at 0.54. If the major punters don't like the retailer compete with them, bighands probably reate a lower platform. Keep an close eye to this. It is similar as BLAND July of last year. From July 2005 - May of 2006, BLAND moved up 300%. Hope NWR could also reward you like BLAND. Be cautious and Good luck.
NWR: if you already bought some of this stock, set lpp to 0.60. If this support breaks, RP.
DISTAR: looking "attractive". But your tight stop if you enter.
foreigners bought 626 mio. today, a silver star on the horizon
zorro, what stock did foreigner buy 626 million today? NWR or Distar?
DE: could this stock go further down? Keep an eye on it. Good luck.
626 mil net buy of set
some trading ideas for next week:
ai: still looking good
samart: uptrend line in 1 year chart still intact, stop 7.75
acl: sharp downtrend since 19.5. is broken, but the overall downtrend might not be over yet (might fall as low as 2.7)
emc: interesting if we see a bit more strength, macd turning, stop 1.28
mpt: some consolidation after big fall. good entrypoint now or will it plunge further like itv? stop 2.1
nsm: getting now pressure by 15 day avg and could make a new low, 0.41 to be used as stop for the brave who enters.
tt&t: as stated earlier stalled at 3, but still looking good, stop 2.82
MPT: looking interesting.
Guys 1stly keep up the good work. Secondly can you give us more technical perspectives for the SET as a whole.
I am a fundamentalist value player, but i always appreciate your views from a technical perspective.
Regards,
chilli
One other quick point. Would you guys be interested in setting up someform of webforum for discussing thai shares.
I dont know the correct term for it, but a 'chat forum'.
I am very disillusioned with seamico's site, and im not paying $1000 for thai stocks.com
But if you were to charge some sought of nominal fee, say $10 per month, to cover your time and labour, i would be very interested and would be happy to pay.
To my knowledge there are no forums which are available in english and updated on a frequent basis.
Please let me know if you are interested. I am happy to sign up (and pay!!!) right away.
Regards,
Chilli
Chilli, thanks for your appreciation of our work.
At the moment, we are not considering to set up a paid website as you described.
This blog is actually a chat forum (without voice). Every thread is a small forum. As far as we know, this blog is one of the best English forums for Thai stock trading/investing. You can enjoy the free but valuable info here withtout registration, without paying a cent. You can post your comments or stock picks anytime. As zorro said, you can ask any questions cerncering Thai stocks. We will try our best to answer your questions, especially from the perspective of technical anylasis. You are also welcome to make your contributions.
Happy trading and investing.
hi chilli! we are focussing more on the technical side of the stocks, because technical analysis does not lie. how many times a fundamental strong looking stock took a dive because the books were tuned and how many times a stock that has been a sell according to the brokers made a rally.....it takes a lot of time to look at all the stocks from technical perspective and it takes much more time to do fundamental research (how many "analysts" are working for brokers and how many different valuations do you get). and even then only the insiders know really what is going on. fundamental analysts are always behind the time, sometimes days, sometimes months. technical trends are "realtime". sure, i am looking on some fundamental factors as well, such as earnings, news..... but at the end if the techs are not right, i will stay away. as scrt4u said, we welcome any contribution, be it technical, fundamental, or just a gutt feeling.
set: the triangle since january 2004 has been broken to the downside, giving a longterm bearish picture for the set. as I have stated earlier there is the "last chance" channel (connect the highs of april 04, mai 05 and mai 06 for the resistance and draw a parallel line through the lows of may 04 and august 04). the set rebounded from this support line (640-650), so it might be possible to have another upswing, but it will likely stall at the former triangle support (680). Foreign buying is important for a strong set- performance, up to now we saw only 1 day of foreigners being net buyers. the banking sector, which has a strong correlation to the set, has broken a lt-rising support, which adds to the overall bearish picture. for those who are buying stocks and can not follow the market on a daily basis i recommend to stay put for some time and start buying in october to reap the profits after the new year rally. during that time it is easy to gain 20-50%, but now it is easy to lose if you are betting on the wrong horses.
if the set breaks the channel (close below 640 or so), i would not be surprised to see 550 in a couple of weeks/month….
Thanks guys, when i referred to chat forum, i ment not a live chat, but something like delphi forums. The reason being that its easy to follow individual threads.
Chilli
I think blogger.com is better than delphi forum. You probably has not got used to a blog style forum. A blog is more SEO friendly, easy to manage, speedy, fewer ads, etc. Come more often and you will know.
To use this forum in a simple way, you can just visit two threads: coooking list and discussion of other stocks. Just visit the latest two threads. Click the the comment link at the end of each of the two threads, and you are in a forum.
Hope this helps.
EPCO: keep an eye on this stock. Maybe sth. cooking there.
KMC: looking interesting.
Agree to buy some with tight stop. Good luck.
sillyfools, if you already entered THAI, set stop at 40.
thx scrt4u, i bought bigger portion on LH 6.7
sillyfools
any views on SC, & which stocks in finance/security sector wud be worth entering now?
LH: set your stop at 6.5
Answer: SC has fallen to its historic low. It looks that it is trying to move out of the down trend. If you like, you can try your luck with small position. Good luck.
finance stocks: the sector is still in a downtrend since may which could be broken soon. combining the lows since july 2005 gives a slighlty downsloping support line and it looks like the sector should have another run up. most of the following picks are a bit of bottom fishing or a buy on a breakout. it is advised to compare the fundamentals before picking any of it.
stocks that could break the may/june downtrend soon together with the sector (better to wait for the break rather than jump in now): asl, bfit, gbx, nvl, zmico
sc: seems to have slightly broken the downtrend, buy with tight stop.
fns could be bought with tight stop =14.5
kest could be bought with tight stop =21.4
uobkh: buy with stop 5.5
all other finance stocks have not enough volume for trading or are still bearish.
I have not found good pick in finace sector. Maybe zorro has some.
some more thoughts on the finance sector: check out the long term chart on bartons website, a lt-support line has been slightly broken. nothing that couldn't be fixed with a strong rally but it should make everybody cautious.
NCH: if you bought this stock, move lpp to 1.85
MPT: this stock has stayed above 5DMA for 3 days, good sign.
For what its worth from a fundamental point of view consider GL within the finance sector. Very low PE 4.5 (historical), but with growing EPS. Also specialises in motercycle finance. Motorcycles may benefit from higher oil prices due to consumers switching from cars.
Also great div yield above 10%.
Chilli
Chili, GL is still within its downtrend channel. The last rally of GL was between 4-10 of last May. Time has not yet conquored the patience of the trapped shareholders. Set is not good. If you like it, I think you can enter with a stop at 8.90.
NCH: move lpp to 1.14 (note: the previous 1.85 is a typing mistake.)
some head fund decribed DOW will down another 5% next 2wks,would u believe will happen in SET too?
I felt SET has a possible down to 630+
ueda
ueda, I guess SET will probably fall to around 600
Hi, how do you get a low of 4 on Gl, i was looking at six month chat, its lowest has been 8 and its tops 11?
4-10 of last May = On the 4th - 10th of May 2006.
notaclue, you don't have to and there is no need for you to follow this blog word by word. My advice is that you have to follow our LPP/STOP points. Because as long as you can control your loss as small as possible, you can make money sooner or later.
GSTEEL looking interesting again.
notaclue, how do you trade? trade the stock yourself via internet or call your broker to trade? I suggest you buy a small notebook computer (like Fujitsu, very samll and light to carry), visit the link every trading day: https://trading.kimeng.co.th/ms4j.asp
When the LPP/STOP points break out, exit accordingly. You don't have to glue your eyes on the screen all trading hours except you do day-trading.
GSTEEL: move lpp to 1.25.
volume is still small for NWR, if you like, you can with a small position and a stop at 0.57
GSTEEL: probably some resistance at 1.31
nwr: although i have called the bottom for nwr, the possible dissolution of the parties will delay the megaprojects, so contractors will not do well. there are better possibilities out there, unfortunately i have not much time to check all out, but you might have a look at housing developers as well as epco, svoa, gen, nsm, secc, atc
notaclue: another advice is, never think a stock is too low to sell. i used to think like this as well and usually it was the wrong thinking. all stocks can go lower and many times the stocks that have dropped much, will continue to go down unless a technical support is hit or a reversal sign can bee seen. if you can not follow the stockmarket for a longer period of time, it is better to sell everything, unless the market is in a longterm bull run. sometimes i empty my portefolio if i can not watch the market for a couple of days only.
today up indicated SETrebound or trap from big hand??uneasy to guess hahh
Usually I don't guess SET is a trap or a "treat" except you play SET index. I guess NWR is going to have a rebounce if it can hold above 0.54. Let's see if I am right or wrong.
set: all bad news are out, foreigners seem to be done with selling, other sellers are done as well, so the set goes up while the dow and the region is down. buy, but exit if the set makes a new low. i am fully invested now. if the Friday is strong as usual i might take profit and re-enter on monday, let's see.
take a look at loxley, could make a run soon, bought some today.as for usual use tight stop.
Yes, loxley is cooking for a rebounce. hold tight and good luck.
POWER: looking good.
NWR: enter with a stop between 0.56->0.54. Good luck.
EPCO: cooking. stop 0.51
UMI: seems rebouncing.
Power: move lpp to 2.15
Wow, UMI rebounce after my post above. Now, move lpp to 1.35. If this support breaks, lock your profit.
MME: looking good. Enter with a stop at 7.0 Good luck.
MME: haha, My prediction is correct. Move lpp to 8.5. Enjoy.
UMI: my prediction is correct. Move lpp to 1.40. Enjoy.
ITV: seems cooking for a rebounce. Stop 2.42. Good luck.
SC: after reset, it looks good again.
LLP/STOP
loxley: 2.3
ITV: 2.75
SC: 11.2
MME: 1.4
EPCO: 0.54
POWER: 2.18
NWR: 0.58
set: i posted previously a resistance of the set at 680, which was been reached now. profit taking seems to be a good idea, but foreigners were strong net-buyers on friday. mondays are usually downdays, so prepare to re-enter if the set shows a strong performance.
if the set can not climb above 680 and stay there during the next week, it might be better to wait for a new low, especially for those who can not follow their investments on a daily basis.
if you want to hold your stocks, i recommend to use following stops: bbl and lh 25 day avg, acl failed to break the 25 avg and might be better to sell, the last candle pattern does not look good.
ktc:as the sharp downtrend has been broken, we could see a turnaround in st or mt. the lt chart does not look good, as the horizontal support in the 5 year chart @ 19-20 has been broken (will become major resistance). if you buy, set stop 15.9
lalin: some similarities to ktc before ktc's support was broken. could happen to lalin as well, now at horizontal support and the downtrend not broken yet. i would stay away from it or set stop 4.6
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