Cooking list of Stocks - No.4 2006
Welcome to Cooking list No. 4, Thai stock investors / traders !
EVER: Vow, the stock of EVER is up 80% since our call (14 March 06) to get in. No kidding!!! Real money if you lock profit on today. Now move LPP to 7.00. Look at the chart below: (updated on 3 April 06)
PAP: Still quietly cooking. Be patient.
PRECHA: It seems a punting platform is forming. Exit if it breaks. Good luck.
CITY: It broke its downtrend and will probably make a run. Use a tight stop. Be cautious the punter will probably make a shake-out. Move lpp to 2.70. (updated on 3 April 06)
ATC: There is possibility for a triple bottom, stop at 25.
Q-CON: It's near horizontal support, get out if broken.
TRAF: We recommended to take profit on 23 of march (1.12), now it fell back to 25 day avg (1.01), next run possible, but get out if 1.00 is broken.
We'll add more gradually.
scrt4u & zorro
posted by scrt4u @ Saturday, April 01, 2006
86 Comments
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86 Comments:
zorro, I published cooking list No.4. Your comments are appreciated.
scrt4u, IRP still on cooking list?
hongkie, IRP is still cooking. I just avoid the repetition.
EVER: vow, it's up 80% since our call. Will it move like MME? Probably.
Notaclue: have you sold your MLINK today, I read from you that you have switched to SAMTEL on Mar. 30 you moved the wrong timing as MLINK is flying today despite its XD. To compensate your loss I would suggest you to enter BLAND and hold until end of this month
Notaclue: have you sold your MLINK today, I read from above that you have switched to SAMTEL on Mar. 30 you moved the wrong timing as MLINK is flying today despite its XD. To compensate your loss I would suggest you to enter BLAND and hold until end of this month
Post by CHEAP
notalcue, I suggested you to set stop at 29 for TWP. You didn't do it?
TWP: game is not over.
noaclue, if you are sitting beside a profesional punter in front of his comuter screen and when he tells you this is the bottom price, you can get in with one BIG LOT and you make BIG money for sure.
to notaclue: somehow i have the feeling that your timing is wrong and you get in when the stock has made a good part of its run already (mme, samtel) or you get out too late. is it because you have not the time to monitor the stocks closely (like every day or as i do to sit in front of the screen before the market opens until it closes and much longer) or do you just pick the wrong horses?
if you do not have the time to follow the stockmarket closely and sell your stocks as soon as the stop or lpp has been triggered, i recommend you to invest in stocks that are not so volatile. the stocks we recommend here are usually 2 different types: 1) a cooking stock, that is trading sideways and will someday break out (like aj) and 2) stocks that are suddendly pushed up and could either have a run or fall back down. the latter need close observation and quick reaction and do not seem to suit your investment style. if you can not outperform the set, you might consider to invest in an indexfund and trade stocks on paper or with a small part of your money until you have gained more experience. don't forget to analyze your trades and find out what went wrong and why. did you pick the wrong sector, did you choose the wrong stock, entered at overbought conditions, haven't been fully invested in an uptrend and are full in if the market goes down, and so on.
trading requires a very strong selfdiscipline (something even i struggle often with and is always the reason for a bigger loss)
about entering and selling in batches: the clearer the signals are, the more you have to buy or sell (i think thats what scrt4u had in mind when talking about tips of a pro). if a stop has been triggered, ususally you have to get out completely unless you have missed the stop by far and the stock has reached a new support level. if you enter a stock and are not sure about the shortterm performance, you might buy with a portion of your money and accumulate more if the stock retreats a bit but is still above the support or stoploss and you can average down if you missed the exit and the stock reaches a new support level (like mlink)
it seems that you are nearly 100% invested, which is quite high given the unstable political situation. this might result in not being able to average down or you might sell a good horse in favour to a lame one.
to notaclue: something more about entering a stock at the right price: sometimes it is just the right thing to buy immediately, close your eyes and sell sometimes later at a profit. most of the time it is useful to take a closer look at the chart and try to find a better entry point (like samtel, when i said the rsi was overbought it was verly likely to get in a little bit cheaper). don't be fooled by a strong bid volume, many times the moneymakers do this to lure guys like you into buying their shares at the higher price and pull the bid after they have sold. in order to recognise those false bid it is necessary to watch the bid/offer sides for several days to get a feeling for it. bnt is a good example, if you see 80-100 mio. shares on the offer side compare to 10-20 mio on the bid and the stock keeps on holding up, you can be sure that it will have a run the same day. this happened last friday, the stock started to move up a bit, most of the offer was pulled and the stock continued to go up. i could make a quick intraday gain of a couple % within 30 minutes, easy money!
bafs: this stock is going sideways for such a long time that it is hard to say if it is worth to hold
tpi is looking interesting again, the channel seems to be still intact, in this case the channel resistance would be in the area of 9.5.
Zorro, thank you very much for your answers to notaclue.
zorro, above posting is highly appreciated, especially on observation of bid/offer. thanks for sharing those points.
notaclue: if you buy BLAND, just hold and dont shake
I have insider news, my cousin working as accountant for SSI says the first Q ssi is making profit now but due to its accounting standard the profit will be very modest but in the 2nd Q the earning will be substantial. This news is known to all steel traders, he suggests to enter between 1.19-1.23 and keep until end of July that the price will become 1.50-1.55
Trust me or not is yours
posted by CHEAP
CHEAP, technically, SSI meets your inside news.
Zorro/scrt4u
really learn some useful tech. from your post to notaclue. Thks.
BB
notaclue,
cheer up, you are not alone... ;D
with PM leaving house, any comment on how stock under his influence would react?
scrt4u, please consider adding this page to "link" site.
https://wwwb1.settrade.com/sims_profile.jsp?txtBrokerId=026&securityName=theco&language=E
Do you mean to add https://wwwb1.settrade.com/sims_profile.jsp?txtBrokerId=026&securityName=theco&language=E
to the side bar under "Links" ?
This is a link about the company of THECO. Is it relavant?
nothing to do with THECO, but think the site's pretty fair giving basic info of thai stock.
What is your opinion of the name of the link? I can add the link but what "name" should I give it?
NWR: started moving. Move lpp to 0.97
SET: SET broke downtrend "flag" and previous two highs. No need to worry about who will be the PM. Economy has to develop.
Same wishes from me, hv a nice break in coming days guys!
Appreciate all advices, it real helped me a lot this year cheers
Sillyfools
Anonymous, I've added your suggested link to the side bar of this blog. It is named as "Profiles of SET stocks". Is it OK? Thanks for your contributions.
SET: Yestoday the foreign bought alot more than sold. New capital got in SET. Wow!!!
I heard hot money from Spore & Jakarta will pour onto SET in coming days, don't miss & pick your stock wisely.
Ueda
scrt4u/zorro,
Pls look @ KMC, in your opinion, has it reverse its down trend?
Tks
if money come from jakarta better concentrate on steele share.
Chaps, SPORT ...is there some trap here. it seems to have a life of its own.
Dear Chaps, on this sunday can you consider CCP versus Q-CON, do they have the same merits. I see that one CCP director is dipping his toe in the water. Technical Analysis on this would be much appreciated
kmc: rebounded from strong horizontal support @3, could be a buy at 3.1-3.2
sport: now at the february 2005 peak, weekly chart looks good with strong volume, rsi now overbought, buy on weakness
ccp: still in the downchannel since september and below 25 day avg.
q-con: close to the horizontal support
my rating is that q-con is the better choice with a chance of 51:49 (because of the smaller loss if the stop is triggered)
what i said about de was: "de: is a tricky one, now caught between 25 and 75 day avg. could be another jump soon which seems always a good possibility to sell"
btc: reached former 1.7 support which could be resistance now, 75 day avg is located in the same area
samtel: still in uptrend, no need to sell
ITV shares 13% down today. I have bought in at 8.90 for a short term bounce. Experienced people, please help me think this one through.
CITY: move lpp to 2.85
mickie the mouse, use tight stop after you bought ITV.
IRP: move lpp to 6.10
DE: look at the volume increasing since last November, zorro. Every wave is higher than the previous.
SPACK: as expected, this stock move up today. Move lpp to 2.65.
I recommend PTL, the 4th Q result is coming in Apr/May 06 and expected to be good with full year EPS at 0.84 EPS div. 40% is 0.33 or more than 6% of current price. Have a look.
CHEAP
zorro,
can i hv ur opinion on KMC-W1's price?
thanks
IRP: this stock keeps going up. Great. Move lpp to 6.35 or higher. Enjoy our fans.
mickie the mouse, did you use "tight" stop to exit ITV?
SPACK is doing a shakeout.
spack is not doing a shakout but it is xd today (0.15 bt)
kmc-w1: black&scholes value about 0.35
itv: another stock that promised high upside acc. to broker fair value but is going down instead.
I will be on holiday until 25 April. zorro, pls take care and enjoy.
zorro,
you think SIAM's interesting?
scrt4u: enjoy your holiday
siam: seems to run in an uptrendchannel since december with a support now at 2.2-2.3, getting in now might be a bit expensive as it is closer to the resistance and the former high in september is not clearly taken out, i would prefere to buy in a bit lower. if you want to get in now, keep some funds to average down. longterm picture looks promising
SIAM resistance 2.44-2.5?
2.6
Scrt4.... the lucky mouse sold out early for a 1.5% gain,,, oh lucky mouse. Thanks
zorro,
would like your opinion on whether there's more upside for SIAM after gone up 10+% last trading day?
thks lot
siam: phillip sec. suggests: "Medium-term trend is good. Good support is 2.60 and resistance is 3.20.Medium-term buy/hold is still advised.Use 2.60 as a stoploss. As for short-term,only speculative buy is advised.
Resistance 2.98-3.02;support 2.82-2.80;stop 2.78."
On April 4 I recommended to enter SSI at 1.19-1.23 right now it is 1.39, insiders said the price will be driven to 1.50-1.55 on or before July.
However, I also cheer GSTEEL, just remind all of you that its IPO was 1.60 when the world steel price was around 380 dollar/ton, and at that time, "all" analysts said its IPO price was cheap and right now the world steel price is around 500/ton, at least it should hit its IPO price in near term. Don't think your purchase is to bail me out because my cost is only 1.22 and I am buying more and more
Posted by CHEAP
I advise you to enter 1.35, I can't remember when but I am sure any price below 1.40 is quite safe for the current climate
Posted by CHEAP
Anyone know how los is SHIN?
Anyone knows how low is SHIN?
gsteel: 1.6 (ipo price) should be possible as it was the alltime high, then we have to see. i think it can go much higher.
de: seems to make periodical jumps, time is ripe for the next one. on the other hand you might use a close < 0.59 as exit.
btc: broke 25 day avg up, tested 75 day avg and fell back to 25 day avg, should be on the next move up now.
bland: still in the middle of nowhere, support at 0.7-0.72
you might switch from de and btc to bland if bland reaches the rising support line
Here's - not a tip but some interesting info on LVT.... investing in LVT should be quite risk free considering the previous performance and also the better liquidity of the share from 105 mil to 210 mil and also the warrants, PE ratio is 7 and the share price is close to book value so hope the trend will change and we can see our shares and warrants increase in value, as FLS bought ca 20% of the company with the potential new business that this will bring in could be quite a boost.
We have been expanding all departments especially contract management, shipping and engineering so a few more guys in the sales will be required to fill the order books again, so believe that we are a cheep share today BUT Thailand is always Thailand and investors tend to be quite cautious.
further---- someone mentioned this share some time ago during a particularly strange period for the SP as it had just issued warrants. there has also been a change in structure with new investors coming in and buying some of the shares of the existing management at 6-8BHT per share dependent on the results in 2005 Y end/// SP has now settled down somewhat and expect that this is the reason for this comment above.... LVT are actually specialize in the cement industry and technology inmprovements, they run big projects and are now taking in their competitors, (20% of the shares bought by FLS directors.)
So i'd say this is one to watch....
LVT-W1 are trading at 117PS today. and has plans to list and get of the MAI and onto the SET pretty soon.
DE is a losing money company, profit and loss can be manipulated easily, one of the hardest to predict companies, but if price surges you must exit immdly.
Posted by CHEAP
IRP's time is over, higher crude price means higher cost with reduced selling price. T.A. warrants minor advancement but major retreat.
CHEAP
GSTEEL and SSI are still worth considering after consolidating. T.A. also warrants significant advancement.
CHEAP
SIAM: move lpp to 3.1 Enjoy.
wb scrt4u, hope u had a wonderful time away.
Yes, I did. Thanks.
SOLAR: move lpp to 10 or higher.
SATTEL: it seems that this stock has broken its downtrend.
Malee: I recommended this stock in last December and March. Now it's up 55%. Move lpp to 6.0
SHIN: still cooking.
notaclue, if BLAND breaks support of 0.75, RP or exit.
IRP: move lpp to 6.10
SPACK: it was recommended on 26 March 06 when it was 2.26. Now it's up over 20%. Move lpp to 2.8 Enjoy.
how about SINGHA plzz thx
learner, when you see mint lose momentum, it is probably the target to exit.
SINGHA: if you like, you can get in with a stop at 6.75. Good luck.
zorro, what happened to CPN (huge volume 27 April 06)?
singha: small double bottom at 6.75, st-downtrend since 5th of april, if you buy set stop at 6.75 or better wait for the break of the st-downtrend, rebound could stall at 8
mint and w-1 target: both at alltime high, can not predict. rsi of minor leaves a little bit upside but the end of the rally could come soon.
cpn: no idea why volume was strong yesterday, could be a sign of the end of the rally
Hi
has anyone any comments on ASL?
rumour thats its cooking.
your thoughts?
yes, ASL seems cooking. stop 10.5
What happened to Gen ? Is it still on yr cooking list ?
GEN: it has been cooking. Set stop at 0.53. Good luck.
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