Discussion Of Other Stocks No.4 - 2006
Dear Thai stock investors / traders, welcome to No.4 (April 2006).
LOXLEY: This stock was able to stay above the 25 day avg for some time, now the 75 day avg comes to aid as another support, enter with a stop at 2.76 (updated on 3 April 06)
ACL: Cheap recommended this stock. I checked its chart. It is cooking. Accumulate quitely with a stop at 5.15. Good luck. (updated on 3 April. 06)
SHIN: It is smashed down alot. If you like, you can accumulate quietly with a stop at 36.50. Good luck. (updated on 3 April 06)
TTA: This stock is cooking. Get in quietly with stop at 17.30. Good luck.
UOBKH: It's forming a "flag" pattern. Which could break up or down, ambiguous. Set stop at 6.65. If it goes up, move lpp accordingly. If it breaks down, exit. Now it seems broke flag. Move lpp to 6.80. (updated on 3 April 06)
SAMTEL: Its rsi was overbought so it went down a bit, it was mentioned in january when it broke 25, 75 and 125 day avg.
We'll add more gradually.
posted by scrt4u @ Saturday, April 01, 2006
81 Comments
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81 Comments:
for those who play with these two stocks, KEST, UOBKH I give you the range to enter and exit
If volume is less than 15K per day
UOBKH 6.4-6.8,
KEST 22.8 - 24
if volume is more than 20K per day
UOBKH 6.6-7.35
KEST 23.5-26.50
by CHEAP
CHEAP, thanks for your input.
Hi, got some UOBKH @ 6.35, what price level should I target?
Thx
UOBKH: It's forming a "flag" pattern. Which could break up or down, ambiguous. Set stop at 6.65. If it goes up, move lpp accordingly. If it breaks down, exit.
some stocks with low downside risk if you stick to the stoploss points:
atc: possibility for a triple bottom, stop at 25
q-con: near horizontal support, get out if broken
traf: i recommended to take profit on 23 of march (1.12), now it fell back to 25 day avg (1.01), next run possible, but get out if 1.00 is broken
to learner regarding your post from yesterday:
sthai: heavy volume, looking good, any news out?
it: on a longterm basis it could see 10 again, now a bit high to enter, could fall back 5-10 % during the next week
sithai: now at strong horizontal resistance, let's hope it will break
samtel: rsi was overbought so it went down a bit, you should have mentioned it in january when it broke 25, 75 and 125 day avg
Gentlemen, what are your picks for the post election week... I'm in GBX and UOBKH., finance stocks seem to be good today.
You should find good time to exit UOBKH today and re enter at lower price, take profit.
I recommend ACL, foreigners are accumulating, price is at floor level
Posted by CHEAP
CHEAP, thanks for your inputs. I agree that ACL is cooking.
Hello - the mouse wants to know whether NSM-W1 are worth a Punt given the SP of NSM driving skywards. Warrants have moved a little bit. Steel is a bit chewy for a mouse so please give this some attention - thanks Gentlemen.
mickie the mouse, technically, I think NSM-w1 is worth a punt, but zorro has a fumular which can math out the exact value of the warrant. Please wait for zorro to give you his valuable opinions.
nsm-w1: black&scholes value = 0.12 and if my notes are correct they can be called at the end of the year (ex-price 3.126) despite the expiry being 2010. better keep your claws off them, could be a mouse trap.
nsm-w1: i might have been wrong with that the warrants can be called at the end of the year. instead the initial exercise date is end of this year. sorry. anyway not a bargain but you know how the warrant gamblers are playing...
...and of course expiry date is october 2011...
mickie the mouse, your question is very interesting. Now you got "Punt" from me and "kee claws off" from zorro. Who will be correct? I am not sure. Let time give you the answer. As I said, I am often wrong. Now it is totally up to yourself. Win or lose, it's your money.
ple: above all majore avg's, volume increasing, could be the start to something (remember samtel in january)
nsm-w1: i am not saying that you won't make money on this one. the point is that over the long run you will be better off with holding the mother share, that is the conclusion of the low b&s value. look at the performance of nsm compare to the warrant since its february low: nsm is up nearly 50 %, the warrant only 15 %
zorro, yes, PLE broke up its "incompleted flag pattern", looking good.
ple: just saw that eddy has a buy on ple in his tech daily for tomorrow as well. his support is 8.5-9 and resistance 11-12.
tta: still a downresistance line since january unbroken- but could be soon, maybe tomorrow. and then there is the 25 day avg to come….be careful
warrants I leave alone usually, but I have an appetite for these ones,,,, as Scrt4u and Zorro give me good advice, I will exit for a 10% loss and quickly run into my hole... I have enough cheese in the fridge to last if this little adventure turns out bad.
Thankyou kind gentlemen for all your quick attention.
"exit for a 10% loss" .... you means you hold them already and want to sell them now at 10% loss?
if you like you can play the "switch game" with nsm and the warrant: keep the warrant until it outperforms the stock (more gain while on the rise or smaller loss during a downtrend), then sell and switch back to the mothershare. If you plot a chart nsm versus nsm-w1 and draw a trendline you will see that the warrant is below the trend = cheap compare to the stockprice. some time ago the warrant was trading at 0.3 while nsm was same as today, so it might be possible that the warrant will do some catch-up after the recent run of the mother share. as closer the expiry date comes, the less is the chance that the warrant will trade above the average line as the premium becomes smaller and smaller, but there is still some time to go.
loxley: was able to stay above the 25 day avg for some time, now the 75 day avg comes to aid as another support, stop=2.76
any comment on which way csl will head after xd?
NSM-W1 warrants, the mouse bought them at 0.22 and now will hold them until 0.20 (10% loss) or get swept up by the tide of enthusiasm for steel. That's what I meant.
Zorro I think the 0.3 levels for the warrant and difference to NSM SP is a very good point. I agree that the expiry of the warrants is a long time away so there is much time to speculate,,, hope the speculators speculate upwards. Thank you Zorro
csl: was on the higher end of a longer sideways pattern before going xd, might face a bit weakness shortterm but still good for longterm holding as long it can stay above 3
zorro/ scrt4u,
what you think of NWR's prospect??
thx
hongkie, NWR seems forming a "double bottom". Cooking. Set stop at 0.90.
notalcue, now get in POWER, stop at 5.65; target 7.00. Good luck. Just test if you can make a little money. Don't use heavy position.
notaclue, if you feel insecure, exit.
nwr: today some pushing after 0.9 is a shortterm support, but fake bids are beeing pulled. reason might be the 25 day avg and the downresistance since january which have been an obstacle for nwr quite some time. On the other hand there is still some insider buying at these levels and sooner or later nwr could have a run (with taksin still in the seat the infrastructure projects could come again into investors mind). got some nwr in the lt-porte and might jump the waggon with some st-money.
bland: mentioned earlier that there is a strong resistance at 0.8 (see weekly chart), there could be a fall to 0.7-0.75 where it is a good point to increase positions (watch out for the 75 day average as support which is nearly identical to the channel support since november))
btc: outlook is improving, i would hold it
de: is a tricky one, now caught between 25 and 75 day avg. could be another jump soon which seems always a good possibility to sell
scrt4u: what do you think of jas? managed to climb above 25 and 75 day avg, this was a good point to enter nsm, but nsm was always on strong volume compare to jas.
nsm wait to enter at 0.70-0.71
zorro, JAS boke downtrend on 15 March, could enter with tight stop.
NSM: big volume is distributing?
nsm: needs to take a break, i guess it will fall back to the 25 day avg this or next week, another possibility would be to test first the horizontal resistance at 0.88 before falling back
scrt4u/zorro
what do you think of CTW, i bought at 7.00, any chance of running up...
BB
ctw: currently in an uptrend, strong resistance at 8-8.5, volume peak a couple of days ago suggests that punters offloaded, if you like the stock then keep it but raise the lpp accordingly (you could use either 15 or 25 day avg)
csl: some research out today by phillip (sell), tisco (sell) and kelive (lt-buy)
BB, CTW, I suggest you to use 10 days moving average as a stop.
With the event today (PM resignation), any comment on how the market would react? (immediate and medium term effect)
thks
Anyone know anything about TUCC?
TUCC is in downtrend.
UOBKH: move lpp to 7.5
ACL: move lpp to 5.55
Bit disappointed on GBX... should I be worried and get out... there seems to have been a shake out today.
mickie, today it is not a shakeout, but distribution. A shakeout usually does not come with volume. You can get out and get in at a lower entry.
I am puzzled why a distribution happens on such an active day.... does a distribution mean that major holders are taking positions in other stocks, and how this has lead to a fall in the SP and why they choose today to do it... Does this mean short term the SP will weaken although no new info is available on the profitability of the company or whether there are near term issues. or potentials
DE: looks more and more interesting.
mickie, I don't know why the distribution happened today. Maybe some early-mickies got some news? Just follow the trend. Down, you exit; up, you enter.
scrt4u:
need your comments on PTL, I think this stocks should be in your cooking list. It is like IRP whereas IRP is upstream but PTL is downstream but PTL's profitability is better than IRP's. Its financial positions, div. payout ratio, etc., are better than IRP but don't understand why its price is lower. Earlier, PTL's price is always higher but owing to the T.A. may be, or what? its price is much lower and still lower than its real fundamentals. What is your idea?
posted by CHEAP
CHEAP, I think PTL is preparing a new run. Look at the daily chart, you can see it in small uptrend since 16 March. You asked why it stlll is lower than its real fundamentals? Very simple, it's because punters smash it down so that they can collect "cheap" chips to play. Just like some stock keeps going up much higher than their real fundamentals. Why? Punters speculate them. As I always said, no need to understand why? Just learn how to identify the reversal point of a trend and you cannot loose.
ptl: on the weekly chart the lt-downtrend is more clear with resistance at 5 and 5.5, unless both are broken, the downtrend could continue
scrt4u....GBX 0 the mouse 1... thanks for the advice,,,, sold out at 3.20 before the fall.
maybe I stay in cash for a while.
TFI: zorro, what do you think of this stock? cooking?
tfi: the price looks cheap at 0.21, but this will change if the capaital reduction (or whatever it was) comes (no.of shares reduced about 10:1), then tfi will trade about 2 and the psychologic effect is gone.
May be the other way round as 0.2 is a bit tooo cheap looking whereas 2 is respectable. Don't rule out another smash down to 0.10
zorro/scrt4u
what do you think of VARO, need your comments pls.
BB
varo: a stock with very low turnover, could be a turnaround story, now 9.2 a st-resistance, 8.75 support, play with small money in order to exit it quickly in case things turn ugly
PTL is on the running track today, I recommended since it was 4.94
For BLAND, this one is regaining strength again, judging from the recent new accumulation by foreigners.
Posted by CHEAP
SITHAI, resistance at 8.50-8.60????
any comm.???
BB
sithai: still at the horizontal resistance as i have mentioned on 2nd of april
need your comments on ILINK, volume is up and look at the chart it broke the flat pattern do u think it is changing to uptrend??
Thanks
BB
ilink is in an uptrend since beginning of this year
I bought SUSCO 0.63 & DE 0.57,any latest comment on both?
Ueda
SUSCO 0.65 instead
Ueda
susco: although i do not like this stock, it seems to do some catch-up to the other energy stocks, weekly chart shows a reversal, expect to find some resistance at 0.75, and then we will have to see
de: i recommended to notaclue to switch if de closes below 0.59.
Wanted to go into PF, NCH & TUCC, any comment please.
Thanks
Q for Zorro on Information content of warrants.
Looks to me that over the last few months most warrants have moved over from being at a discount to the point where most are at a premium and we have seen significant new activity in many eg FNS-W1, SPORT warrant. For the warrants to be exerciseable or in the money presumably the stock price has to rise considerably.
Is it realistic to assume that the smart money is antocipating higher prices and acting in the warrants first?
irp: after doubling since its all time low, investers seem to be keen on profit taking, could fall back to 75 day avg at 5.2 before the next upswing comes, not sure about the future of this stock
pf: watch out for the rising support line since february together with the 25 and 75 day avg as exit points
nch: looking good at the moment, set stop at 1.18
tucc: now near st-resistance at 4, maybe better to see if it can be broken.
warrants are punted for different reasons:
1) if the warrant is undervalued (cwt-w1 was at a steep discount to the black and scholes value and last week some people may have discovered the opportunity)
2) if the warrant has made a steep fall and is technically oversold. the theoretical value is not considered in this case, the punters just ride the rebound in hope to make a quick gain. fns-w1 is the example here.
3) the warrant rises together with the mothershare (like sport-w2)
4) warrants are bought if the traders anticipate in a general positive trendchange or the market is in a rally already
5) single warrants are picked out by the manipulators, they buy in, ramp the stock price up, sell the warrants with a nice profit and slowly get rid of the mother shares.
all in all you can say a higher trading activity in warrants means an improving outlook for the overall market. at this time i think the warrant activity is still a bit low to signal a major rally, but the market outlooks seems to be improving.
Thank you Zorro
TCJ: looking good.
MINT: bighands have already pulled its price up 100%. It's in a uptrend. If you like, you can get it with a relatively low cost. Good luck.
scrt4u, zorro,
What do you think of LVT? Has it halt its downtrend?
Thanks for your time.
lvt: looks a bit like a bearish triangle including the peaks end of february, the worst might still come
should read: end of january
thanks zorro.
SVOA and LVT: cooking in a tech view, but you have to use tight stop if you would like to get in.
TT%T: in an uptrend, resistance at 3.8 - 3.9
tt&t: could see 3.9 again, set stop at 15 day avg
svoa was recommended to buy by eddy recently, good support at 1
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