Stocks discussion No.9 - 2008
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.9 - 2008".
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LL: This stock is cooking.
Today (30 Sept. 2008) its price is 1.57 bahts.
We blindly guess that it will double or triple or more
Today (30 Sept. 2008) its price is 1.57 bahts.
We blindly guess that it will double or triple or more
within 3 - 7 years. Let's see how high it can fly!!!
Could you be patient enough?
You must accept the Disclaimer on this site.
Could you be patient enough?
You must accept the Disclaimer on this site.
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posted by scrt4u @ Monday, September 01, 2008
115 Comments
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115 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks Discussion No.9 - 2008". Post your stock picks or questions below please.
PSAP: looking strong while SET down.
TUCC: interesting. Good luck!
any stock worth collecting during this time
piggy
SECC: forming a horizontal punting platform. If you try, stop at 2.00 Good luck!
TEAM: interesting!
You recommended CSP with bold lettering for several months when it was 2.40 - 2.50...I know because that's when I bought in...then it started dropping virtually daily, you recommended I double up at 2.20 which I did, and topped up again at around 2.00 at which time you reminded me I should have sold out at a max loss of 10%, as is the principle of protecting capital, right?
Then you tipped it again, so I bought more and watched it dive to the 1.70s at which time you said it's words to the effect that it's dead but don't worry it'll recover eventually.
Yes it did recover, but I lost a packet on it, as I did with NWR (60%) at .78 that dropped daily from the day it was called, and that other stock you said was going to 'double', TPIPL, from 7.45 to sellout at 4.20.
Sory, you're doing a fine job but don't credit for stocks you tip that fall more than 10% then leap because according to your owen strictures one should bail out at -10% so nobody should be holding that stock anyway.
fairminded
To fairminded,
Did you notice that we said "stop tight" when we drew your attention to a stock pick? Do you understand what a "tight stop" is? It's less than 3%. Don't be so regid but flexible. You should not buy big position before you learn how to buy and sell stocks. Use small postion to learn. How small? Even you lose 100%, it is still nothing for you. If you can not make it, please do not visit this blog. Have you read the discaimer? If you read it, you would have not posted your comments like that. We are not to blame. We did not "aim a gun" to your head to force you to buy or sell. All actions are your own responsibilities.
Let me suggest you one strategy as below:
Suppose 100,000 bahts is small money for you. Even you lose it all, it will not affect your daily life.
Divide your 100,000 bahts by 50. Then you get 2,000 bahts for each. When we suggest a stock, you use 2,000 bahts to do your first buy.
After the first buy, watch the price. If the price goes up 5% or more, sell your first position. Now you have cash only, no stock. Wait for another re-entry or stock pick or you seek another one for yourself.
If the price goes down after your first buy, let it go down. When it's down about 15%, use another 2000 bahts to double your positon. Now you have two positons, yours loss is about 7.5%. Your cash in hand is 8,6000 bahts. Watch the price. If it goes up 7.5% or more, sell your second position. If it's down instead of up, wait for it to drop another 15%, now you spend another 4,000 bahts to double down your position. Every 15% down, you double average as follows:
1st buy, 2,000 bahts;
2nd buy, 2,000 bahts;
3rd buy, 4,000 bahts;
4th buy, 8,000 bahts;
5th buy, 16000 bahts;
6th buy, 32000 bahts;
you still have 3,6000 bahts in cash. If needed, you can do the 7th buy.
After 6 times drop of 15% each time, the price totally goes down 90%.
How low (how many percent)can the punter smash the price to?
According to incomplete statistics, most bear markets in the history reverse after dropping 60-80%.
Your NWR lost 60%. You were defeated by your "fear", or rigid thingking or "running out of cash". You did not do a good cash manegement.
You understand?
If you can play 1 million bahts, you can do the same way as above stated. Or you can divide your 1 million by 100.
Hi sctr4u
No offense but what you just suggested is impractical do you know how much commission you pay for a trade worth 2000 baht at least 50 baht at some brokers even 100 (the min commission they charge) and when u sell your position if its a different day then you pay another min 50 baht so 100 baht commission alone on 2000 baht trade is 100 baht thats already 5%. so even if you sell your position at 5% gain you still make nothing.. what you are saying is called as martingale (search it in wikipedia to get more detailed explanation) system in gambling circles where you double your bets after every loss eventually hoping that one of the hands out of those 7 hands will get you even .. if thats what someone is looking for better goto a casino and do that in 2 hours dont need to spend months on monitoring and trading stocks. you will either loose or win and results are pretty instantaneous.
Obviously no one should blame you or hold you responsible for their losses its after all their decision and their money but this suggestion is something i suggest to stay away from. Better follow the godfather of investment circle's advice. DO NOT HOLD ANY POSITION FOR EVEN 10 MINS IF YOU ARE NOT COMFORTABLE HOLDING IT FOR 10 YEARS. If you cannot afford it dont invest and where you invest make informed decisions and be prepared to hold it long term as speculation might hurt you.
as a regular reader of this blog i had to make this comment.
peace
kofi
by the way by the godfather of investment circle i was referring to none other than warren buffet
-kofi
Hi Kofi n Fairminded,
I should admit that i made money just 'coz I did follow scrt4u,
And
To kofi,
Thanks for your good post. I just give fairminded one of the options. Of course when you calculate the minumum amount for each buy and sell, you have to consider the trading cost. As long as your trading cost is lower than your profit, you make money. Choose a foundamentally-sound stock (e.g. BBL) and use the "martingale system" to play the stock for 5 or 10 years or longer time, you will make money for sure. Believe or not, some of the top traders in China use the "martingale system" to keep making money in stock market of China, even it keeps falling from 6000 to 2300 now. It's T+1 in China.
Well with this kind situation, best is enter now and waits until everything recovers, and it takes time.
I've been following scrt's advise and I say that most are going up/down as expected, however, how far or it'll go depends on other factors.
Furthermore, I think it's the overall investor's responsibility to make further analysis on the stock that they aimed for, and once you submitted to the information you received, you should be ready to happily receive the result.
I give scrt my support and thanks for sharing your knowledge with us, and I hope we all take it easy in the time of crisis. :)
To And / Seizhin / scrt4u
Please do not misunderstand my comment - it in no way reflects negatively on scrt4u. He is doing us all a favor by providing this platform for us to share our thoughts and comments, and in the process providing us with valuable analysis of his.
And for the people who complain when you make loss just think of it this way when you make one million baht profit do you give 20% to scrt4u ? You don't of course. So its logical --- your decisions --- you face the consequences. Use information here as a tool and make your own decisions.
Anyways market opens in 10 mins todays -- happy spooning today :)
Cheers
kofi
Yes I did say he's doing a fine job and I do know there's no gun at my head, but taking credit for a pick that drops more than 10% - which means nobody should be holding it - then fires up, is a bit stretched. Had CSP been recommended when it fell to 1.70 then that's a different story.
For example, if you recall, CSP was strongly and headline recommended for several months at 2.40 - 2.50. I bought in at 2.46 but that doesn't matter. When it dropped to 2.20 I asked again, because it was nearing the -10% bailout that we're advised to observe, and was advised to double up, not sell. I doubled up, it dropped another 10% to 2.00, so again I asked for guidance before selling and again was advised to hold if not buy more...then it dropped another 10% to 1.70s and stayed there for several months.
And anyway, taking the scenario as published, CSP may have touched 4.28 for a few minutes before retreating quickly to 4.00, but even accepting the figures offered I can't see how 2 baht to 4.28 is a 200% profit. My calculator keeps coming up with 114%.
Dear All
Shipping and energy seems to be falling alot while Property and telecom seem to be holding well. Is there a specific reason?
Political instability should not punish sectors individually isnt it ? Does anyone know why they are holding on ?
Asking coz need to decide which sector to enter -- at the moment targeting PSL TTA for shipping or TRUE DTAC for telecom or TOP PTT for energy. or property.
Does anyone know of a business reason of any of these sectors or stocks that might propell a rebound by year end?
Or any other suggestion ?
Thanks
kofi.
To fairminded,
We did not re-call CSP when it brokout at 1.84 on 7 Feb.2008 because we did not want to disturb the "chefs". Our CSP profit was calculated as "re-enter at 1.84 on 7 Feb.08 and took profit at 3.94 on 5 Aug.08 ". So the profit is 214%.
Energy is falling because of oil prices drop and shipping because of drop in BDI. Scrt4u has burned many people inculding me, he said buy TMB at 3 bought it look at it now, he said buy TT&T look at it now, when stocks go down he never posts it on the website stating STOCK DOWN OVER 12,000% after our receommendation but if up then he will. I can post 100 stocks and if 90 go down we will forget about it and 10 that do go up I will brag about it, how does that sound.
Babel Fish
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=20613860&postID=2214131112250151817&isPopup=true
Please visit the link above and you can find the related comments on CSP, Dear fairminded.
zorro said...
csp: now above all averages, buy with a stop around 2 (area of 200 avg), mt target could be 2.3 or 2.5
Wednesday, March 12, 2008 12:38:00 PM
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scrt4u said...
CSP: after long-time waiting, this stock started its rally. Now its price stay above the 10, 25 and 75 days moving average line which is now showing uptrend direction. Enjoy your trip.
Friday, March 14, 2008 4:15:00 PM
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Anonymous said...
CSP - Time for a strong run. Every Dog has it's day. Enjoy the ride.
Also don't forget to take a look at UMI. Good luck and happy punting. Run up should not be too long though.
Umi san
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Anonymous said...
CSP - target? resistance?
Wednesday, March 26, 2008 10:56:00 AM
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scrt4u said...
CSP: we told you this stock will fly. Now believe it? Raise LPP to 2.28 or higher. Target? It could be as high as 7! It's up to the senior insiders. Don't be greedy. Make a reasonable profit is OK. Enjoy!
Wednesday, March 26, 2008 3:55:00 PM
To Babel Fish,
Thanks for your post. As I understand, a stock can only down 100% at the maximum, or is delisted. But my question is "how do you calculate a stock down 12,000% ?"
Please be my teacher.
scrt4u: Please explain what you mean by not disturbing the chefs...of course anyone with a brain should know what it means, but isn't headlining a stock for several months (re: CSP) precisely that?
As to Fish's TMB at 3, I was in on that too, and also TT&T at 1.55 and NSM at .40 doubling up at .33 and advised to leave at .30.
Still, it's free advice and there are the occasional strikes...just seems I've been on the losers...;)
You must stop loss when your loss is still small. It's no shame to surrender to market makers.Your 1st mission is safegurd your principal.Your 2nd mission is make profit on stocks.
We almost always remind you to do a loss stop. Did you do it? You dare not do it so you lost alot. You should blame yourself. Only conquer yourself can you succeed in stock market. Every time when you got burned a little, why don't take away your finger? You still let your finger burned!
this is a log of every trading day's thoughts and activities. It's a record of the past. We can not amend "history". When we recommended CSP in March 2007. We could not delete it when it came May 2007. We usually offer updates in the comments' section.
To kofi,
Among the stocks you listed above, I think you'd better do DTAC, which HSBC holds quite some. Surf with this stock, buy low and sell high for long term. Good luck!
DTAC: Its MACD "gold crossed"
DTAC: don't say we did not tell you. We called this stock now. You will jump in with all your planned budget? Wrong! You could buy a little or use the above-said "martingale system" to do this stock. Minimum buy should be cost-effective. If you have one million, beter play this stock. Good luck. We are NOT gunning your head to force you buy or sell. Be a judge for yourself money.
Hm, just a rumor on that Mr. Samak will resign soon.
Would you play on with the rumor? Or continue waiting?
Foreigns for the net of (68,474.44m)
has been selling in the past 2 months.
Punta finds himself most favourably disposed to SH and STHAI (small fun only).
DTAC: now raise your LPP to 42.25. Enjoy!:)
To Punta,
SH: this stock will bring you at least 100% profit. Hold it.
EMC: volume is picking up.
DTAC: seems some resistance around 44.50.
KGI: Keep an eye on it.
Distar: insteresting.
EMC: interesting!
HI Does anyone has any videos etc that teaches you about the technical analysis of stocks? lilke MACD MAP trend lines etc etc etc.. heard about these but have no idea what these are . I am sure there are tutorials around does anyone here has any such material you can share ?
Thanks
kofi
To kofi,
Google the vedio. There are some online free.
EMC: slowly and quietly it moves up. Rais LPP accordingly.
anyone made profit tdy??wow APURE hit ceiling, who will follow next?perhaps SH, BWG, IEC, happy guessing
sold my profit on SGP & ESSO tdy, wl reenter when down again...just hit & back in this situation
ueda
To ueda,
Congrats! My KGI has been making profit.
To anonymous:
This is the reason:
"World stock markets soar after US announces bailout of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae."
Maybe another rise tomorrow if nothing's wrong before it hits the resistance.
Hi Seizhin
Thanks for the response. I read that news but it seems to me there is nothing it has to do with regional markes ... i mean i just dont see a link .. am i missing something?
The news was actually related to the DJIA that skyrocketted.
Today still looks bright:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080908/wall_street.html
Hey Scrt4u,
Could you please delete all the comments with PAD etc in them, this is a stock forum and not to talk about politics. Anyways what is your view on TSTH.
Thanks,
KM
Watch for breaking news 2pm as court wl decide Samak's faith & prepare to off load your stocks if news turn bad
james
I don't think it can get any worse than it already is. This is Thailand. T I T
Good luck.
umi san
To KM,
TSTH: its book value is 2.24. Its EPS keep growing in last quaters. Technically its MACD now reversing from a relatively low area. You may buy some with tight stop. If a stock is in uptrend, it's right to buy at any point except the top point. Good luck!
ASIAN: Now up 90%. Take some profit. We called this stock at 1.20 on 18 March 2008.
You may check our call on the link below:
http://thaistocktips.blogspot.com/2008/03/stocks-discussion-no3-2008.html
------ background ----
scrt4u said...
ASIAN: This stock is interesting. Don't say I did not tell you. Stop tight if you try. Good luck.
At Tuesday, March 18, 2008 8:56:00 PM ,
EVER: we also called this stock in the past. Take some profit today. Enjoy!
THAI: interesting.
KSL: interesting. If you try, stop tight.
SH: Warning! its MACD "dead cross".
ASIAN: raise LPP to 2.20 Enjoy! :)
Cfresh: raise LPP to 2.0 or higher. Enjoy!
IRPC: interesting!
BMCL: interesting!
scrt4u I am new here. what do you mean 'interesting'?
When something is interesting, we are interested in it. When we are interested in it, we will keep an eye on it, and maybe we wil buy some. After the buy, we glue our eyes on the screen. And if it proves we are wrong, we cutloss as the loss is still small. It's no shame to surrender to Mr. Market.
We do not force anyone to buy or sell. It's your own responsibilities to buy or sell.
If you lose, please do not complain to us. If you win, you do not need to pay us. Please read the "Disclaimer" on this site.
Now have we made the term "interesting" understandable to you?
scrt4u, noticed few smaller caps warm up SINGHA, UMI & SECC
bought some TRUE, TISCO & KBANK @closing px
ueda
ueda,
SECC: seems in a rally but today volume is too big; probably will have a correction.
TKS: interesting!
NNCL: interesting!
scrt4u what happened with TISCO?
continous big falling alone, luckilly cut loss early morning uhh
and also BGH & BH, falling much...perhaps worth to try if tomrw big falling again
ueda
SECC keep raising, bought some this morning & hope can earn at least 15% :)
ueda
ueda, I do not know why TISCO fell so much. SECC is really in a rally. Keep raising your LPP. Enjoy! :)
tisco fell bec of hefty foreign selling..ke and bls rec accumulate fair value 26 thb div about 11-12 %
pau
Wongsawat's family business MLINK, WIN looked great!
heard Lehman's bancrupcy, is there any stocks related with this firm?
sam
To sam,
The easy way is check the maijor shareholders of the stocks in your portfolio. If no, you do not need to worry about Lehman.
MLINK and WIN: I won't chase them. If yo do, use very tight stop. Good luck!
CSP: seems interesting again.
SC: interesting!
LL: seems breakingout. If you chase, stop tight. Good luck.
SECC: its MACD "dead crossed".
KSL: interesting!
Scrt4u,
Tomorrow SET will be below 600?.. Could you comment, Lehman n AIG only or some more firms will follow.till yesterday Lehman n AIG were not in horizon..
And.
To And,
It's difficult to predict SET because it's decided by many factors. Check its MACD, which is now pointing downtrend. You may wait until its MACD "gold cross".
what about tucc ??? allmost 3 mill bought at 1.52!!in run off .. all day long 1,13 onley !!
pau
GJS had been showing sign of dropping below 0.30 for days.
It fell below 0.30 and I surrendered to the stop earlier at 0.29.
However, it still looks like it's holding at around 0.30, any advise on GJS scrt?
Thanks in advance.
avoid TUCC, I heard it will go down back to 1.13 tdy
Scrt4u,
Bought some Mlink and True today morning, Mlink drop all the way.MLINK looks nice with its FHighlits. Any comments
And
To And,
MLINK: As I told you, I did not chase it. When they want to sell to you, they always make its Financial Hights "beautiful". I do not know your cost. Any way set small loss stop.
To seizhin,
GJS: avoid it now. It seems that it will seek support around 0.20. Find another good stock to play.
LL: I blindly guess that this stock will have big rally as TYM. Good luck.
Please note we are not forcing you to buy. Please read the "Disclaimer" on this site.
MAJOR: down so lot, probably there will be a rebounce.
CCET: will rebounnd? Let's see.
Wow, look at WIN, I was going to chase it this morning, lucky there was some problem with the order.
Thanks for the comment, and be careful. :)
yes noticed TRUE can sustain pretty well these few days, worth to try...btw why BT up itself tdy?
scrt4u need your view KASET, SAMART thx.
ueda
Why SET down so deep tdy?
Do people love their new PM?I think we should see SET<600 tomrw
support tdy 580, if failed see you at 540 then
peter
scrt4u: a couple of months ago you were discussing NWR with someone who bought when you called it in the .70s and .50's. At the time yousaid it's a solid company with Morgan Stanley as a major shareholder, so it won't go belly up, and worst way is to wait till it recovers. Fair enough.
Do you still feel that way?
Where are we now?
Everything looked cheap but it could be cheaper in coming days & I also run off cash since it was stucked very deep here
sam
To ueda,
KASET: After a big rally (17 March - 15 May 2008), it's been in DOWN trend. Now it's under the 3 major moving average. Today the double-bottom broke (down). Better avoid it.
THL: while SET down, this stock is breaking out. Dare to chase? If not confident, forget it. Good luck!
To Anonymous,
NWR is a Thai company that have many projects to go with. I still think the same way. If you feel unsafe, cutloss now. It's your money. Take good care of your own money. Please do not rely on other's opinion.
THL: I chased it at 1.49 and sold it before close at 1.69, made about 13%. :)
cut loss MAJOR, what a mess after seen scrt4u comment!
This comment has been removed by the author.
Any opinion on the big chips such as PTT?
It's been bleeding far too much from the 400 baht, I'm planning on cutting my average for a long-term hold.
There's also BBL that I'm interested in, but I'd like to see what scrt thinks of it. :)
Thanks in advance.
To seizhin,
BBL: It gapped up today. Resistance seems around 110.
ML: SET down but this stock up. Seems breaking. Interesting!!! Good luck!
LANNA: double-bottom. Interesting!
MME: seems rebouncing. Tight stop if you try. Good luck.
NEP: interesting!
what happened with JTS?
anyway vol is very high be careful for profit taking tomrw
scrt4u, need adv PM & HANA thx
Answer to your question.
PM: seems rebouncing. You may chase with tight stop. Good luck.
HANA: seems ready to make a small rebounce. Tight stop if you try.
Thursday, September 25, 2008 7:31:00 PM
IEC, LIVE & GEN become hot recently
bought some KTB, BH, & TTA tdy.. hope get small gain next wk
ueda
GEN: interesting.
TRUE: seems brokeout.
KSL: interesting.
gained a bit fr hot items IEC, GEN & LIVE
bad entry for KTB & TTA :(
ueda
Scrt4u,
Why only TRUE from set100.
And
To And,
What is your question? Please explain your question.
Scrt4u,
Only True performed well, it's ok. we'l wait n see todays panic.
Sky falls.. big hands.. OMG.
And
TRUE & JTS doing pretty good today!
scrt4u what resistance TRUE?
LIVE & IEC still looked hot arent they?
ueda
Hello
To ueda,
TRUE: it's very near the first resistance at 75 days moving average line today.
LIVE: raise LPP to 4.80 or higher.
IEC: resistance seems around at 5.40. It seems losing momentum. If it can not make new high, lock your profit.
This thread is closed. Please move on to "Stocks discussion No.10 - 2008"
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