Discussion Of Other Stocks No.7 - 2006
Welcome Thai stock traders/investors,
PSAP: This stock is looking interesting. If you try your luck, set stoploss at 1.13.
ITV breakout: This stock has been cooking for some time, when we suggested it, people still did not believe. Now look at the chart. Don't be too greedy.
RRC: This is a new stock, related with enery. It broke its its historic high with good volume, now in a srong uptrend. If you you like, enter with a stop at 5% than your cost. Good luck. Look at its chart:
LOXLEY: Medium-term trend is weak. Good support is 2.24 and resistance is 2.66. No medium-term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term, buy. Resistance 2.42-2.46; support 2.32-2.30; stop 2.28. If 2.24 breaks, EXIT no question asked. Look at the chart below:
STPI: Click the chart to enlarge.
SIS (uploaded exclusively for chili)
chili, I am no good at fundamental anylasis. If SIS is fundamentally sound, you have no problem. Technically, pls look at the chart below. I uploaded its recent weekly chart. You can see the price has already moved out of the downtrend channel. I blindly guess the "average support" is 2.25. If the company's profit keeps growing, you can buy more, but after your averagedown, if your portfolio loss is over 10%, I strongly suggest you exit. Trend is your best friend.
posted by scrt4u @ Saturday, July 01, 2006
109 Comments
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
109 Comments:
kce: cooking has started, wait for a breakout
q-con: keep an eye on it, might take some time
bnt: buy if 25 day avg is broken
loxley: from phillip sec.: Medium-term trend is weak.G ood support is 2.24 and resistance is 2.66. No medium-term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term, buy. Resistance 2.42-2.46; support 2.32-2.30; stop 2.28.
Pls need your advice for following stocks: IEC, IRP, MPT and SNC. Started from last week the trading seemed to be active again. Is it the right time to buy some for mid-term investment???
Thanks very much
BB
iec: stay away.
irp: made a rally on low volume this year. does not look good.
mpt: use tight stop if you enter (a close below 2 is last stop), or better wait for breakout above 15 day avg.
snc: a bit of a head and shoulder formation, very low trading volume, also better to avoid
set: i posted previously a resistance of the set at 680, which was been reached now. profit taking seems to be a good idea, but foreigners were strong net-buyers on friday (may be windowdressing). i would wait to confirm the return of the foreigners together with a break of 680 resistance to buy.
KTP: it seems a rebounce. Looking good.
EVER: if you have this stock, lock your profit or reduce positon today.
KTP: wow, it moved quite some after our call. Move lpp to 3.10. Enjoy.
PRECHA: looking good. stop 2.22
KTP: move lpp to 3.25 Enjoy.
Thanks for your advice Zorro, i'll hold for awhile, hopefully will get in at the right moment.
BB
kmc: worth a try
Yes, KMC is looking good.
KTP: move lpp to 3.5 - Enjoy.
PRECHA: move lpp to 2.60. Enjoy.
EVER: has taken out historic high. Chase it with a stop at 8.75
CI: gapped up today. If you like, you can chase it with a stop at 3.25. Goodluck. Stop loss if it breaks the support.
EVER: move lpp to 9.00
KTP: move lpp to 3.6
MME: After reset, it looks good.
BNT: breakout of the downtrend.
how about banking sector SCIB,KTB,ACL?Any chance for further rebound or correction soon?
ueda
I guess SCIB, KTB and ACL are all looking good. Use tight stop. Good luck.
from phillip sec.:
bnt: Medium-term trend is weak. Good support is 0.36 and resistance is 0.52. No medium-term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term,speculative buy. Resistance 0.44-0.45; support 0.41-0.40;stop 0.39.
mpt: Medium-term trend is weak.Good support is 2.06 and resistance is 2.64.No medium-
term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term,speculative buy. Resistance 2.30-2.32;support 2.18-2.16;stop 2.10 .
from seamico:
mme: Sup.9.35-9.70 Res.11.50-11.80
scrt4u
pls comments on STPI
MCS announce that they want to buy STPI for 25 million shares with budget 70 million baht (max 2.80/share)
anomymous, I published a wkly chart to show it, click the chart and you can see my views.
ITV: move lpp to 3.40. If 3.40 breaks, reduce your position or exit. Enjoy.
i would sell pttep because of the now relative high oil price
gsteel could make a new low this week which would trigger a stop. if it can stay above 1.18 then i would take a risk and hold on to it
epco and nwr looks also good now, i would hold it
another possibility would be to sell 50% of each stock, if the stocks drop further you can avarage down and if the stocks rise, you will have at least reduced the losses.
NYMEX expect oil at 80 is on the reach, problem with N. Korea and Iran plus potential hurricane
NWR will post another loss in Q2, be cautious and should leave one ear for the fundamental talks
Comment by Zuellig
EVER: move lpp to 10.50 or higher. Enjoy.
RRC: set lpp/stop at 19
EVER: move your lpp to 11.00 Enjoy.
MPT: move lpp to 2.18
Power: looking good. Enter with a stop at 2.20. Good luck.
Gold: looking good.
RRC: move lpp to 19.70
Power: move lpp to 2.30
WARNING: gsteel broke its 1.18 support, so reduce your position or exit.
EWC: rebounsing. Enter with a stop at 7.80
scp could make a run.
EWC: aha, it is moving after our call. Now move lpp to 8.30. This is for realtime lock profit point.
Yes, zorr, scp looking good. Look at its past three lows, every low is higher than the previous one.
Hi, its Chilli again, maybe stupid question, but i cant find your links to useful thai sites. I am specifically interested in the NDRVD link (i think this is what its called, the site about non-voting shares)
thanks
EWC: Wow, profit keeps growing. Now move your LPP to 9.00.
Hi chilli, the useful thai site is on the bar menu on the righ side. Click it and after the page load, go to the end of the page and you can find them. The server archived the original page together with another page, so I have use this combined page.
Power: wow, it is moving as expected. Now move LPP to 2.60.
Power: move lpp to 2.70
chilli, the NDRVD link is http://www.set.or.th/set/nvdr/nvdrholderinput.do
Thanks
chilli
POWER: move lpp to 3.0
Power: move lpp to 3.20
Now you see you should visit this blog for the realtime Lock profit point.
EPCO: move lpp to 0.59 or higher.
de is on the move.
q-con seems cooking for a move.
DIANA: If you have this stock, set your LPP at 1.80 or higher.
DISTAR: looking interesting.
syntec: worth a trade
syntec: set your stop/lpp to 0.50.
from phillip sec:
syntec: Medium-term trend is weak. Good supportis 0.43 and resistance is 0.60. No medium-term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term, speculative buy. Resistance 0.52-0.53;suport 0.48-0.47;stop 0.46.
epco: Medium-term trend is good. Good support is 0.55 and resistance is 0.72.Medium-term buy/hold is still advised.Use 0.55 as a stoploss. As for short-term,speculative buy. Resistance 0.62-0.63;support 0.58-0.57;stop 0.56.
PE&T: this stock looks interesting. Be cautious because the emergent exit seems small.
PSAP: looking interesting. Stop 1.20
STPI is near its channel resistance. Operate accordingly.
DISTAR: move lpp to 0.73
Power: move lpp to 2.74
BCP: keep an eye on this stock.
distar: from phillip: Medium-term trend is weak.Good support is 0.70 and resistance is 0.90. No medium-term buy signal exists yet. As for short-term,speculative buy. Resistance 0.79-0.81;support 0.74-0.73;stop 0.72.
Chilli:
Thats for your effort scrt4U,
You are one of the few i bother to pay attention to on seamico's site.
I appreciate your knowledge of technical analysis and your views.
I think the main problem occurs when technical traders and fundamentalist investors talk about the same stock.
For me i am not that bothered if the stock falls another 10%, my focus is on earnings. So long as profit increases on a yearly basis, i am happy to hold this stock for several years, regardless of its price. Thats the main difference between the two schools of thought. Some idiot poster on seamico, says that i will loose all my money because if it hits 1.88 a share, nobody will be there to buy my shares. To me if it hits 1.88 a share and the fundamentals of the company are the same, i will simply continue to buy.
Lets take it to the ultimate example, if its share price drops to 50 setang, a person buying its shares could expect to make their return back in one year, just from the profit. This would be the buy of the century (once again assuming fundamentals are constant). A trader might say its price is still in a downward trend and so is to be avoided.
In my own country i own several small businesses. I buy/sell new businesses based also on the selling price of the business relevant to its profit stream.
And even assuming i am totally wrong on SIS, i use portfolio diversity to minimise a mistake i make on any one company. (No investor will be right 100% of the time). At the moment SIS makes up less than 1.5% of my portfolio.
And in regards to selling SIS in the future i will adopt the same strategy. If SIS price appreciates i will sell when i think the price of the share is above what i figure is its fundamental value. Otherwise i will hold.
THus its SIS intrinsic value that i am most interested in and determines my buy/sell preference for the share. IE buy/sell is determined buy instrinsic value/share value. If the equation is greater than one it could be a buy. The higher the number above one the better the buy.
Your friend,
Chilli
chilli, while i agree with the principle of your post, the point is that the normal investor does not know about the real fundamentals. just think about picni. often insiders knowing what is going on will slowly sell their shares before sh!t hits the fan. using technical analysis and comparing the stock trend versus the index might give a hint, but i think you know this aready. good luck.
Yes i understand your view point.
But consider this, are there huge insider selling occuring by SIS directors. The answer is not that i can see. One of the main reasons i invest in the thai market is the fact that SET is more driven by speculation than some other markets in developed nations. Whilst this increases volatility, it also provides opportunities for investors who are prepared to buy and hold. Where else could you by reasonably sound companies for PE's of less than 10. With many companies trading on PE's of 5 - 6 such as SIS, SPPT, UMS, SMIT, TTA, RCL, PSL, MBK, GLOW, RATCH, Bat-3k to name just a few.
Chilli
chilli, I agree with your views. But be cautious that sometimes even the "certified accounting orgs" cheat the public, the good example is Enro in USA. That is why you should not invest over 10% of your total money into one single stock (keep buyingt SIS). Good luck.
ITV: move your lpp to 3.4 or higher.
PSAP: move your LPP to 1.18 Good luck.
sillyfools, CCP looks some resistance around 1.5
PS - some resistance around 6.0
Stop loss if they go down.
Good luck.
PSAP: move lpp to 1.22
RRC: set stop loss at 19.50 Good luck.
Wow, what happened to TFI?
ASCON: looks broke out. Dare to chase it? If you do, use tight stoploss.
DE: seeming cooking. Enter with a stop at 0.41 Good luck.
RRC: move LPP to 19.75. If it gets lower than this support, reduce your position; if can stay above this support, increase your position. This is the so-called regulation of your cost.
Good luck.
NWR: Gave you a suprise today? Move LPP to 0.60
July 21, 2006
Subject : The Central Bankruptcy court has agreed
The Director and Manager
The Stock Exchange of Thailand
On July 21, 2006 , The Central Bankruptcy court has agreed with
the abortion of the company's rehabilitation process.
Thai Heat Revival Company Limited
As the reorganization planner of Thai Heat Exchange PLC.
Mr.Surin Wanpensakul
Director
What does the above mean?
Honkie, it is better for zorro to answer your question.
could mean anything: rehabilitation aborted because it is not possible to keep the company alive or aborted because the company is rehabilitated now.
suggest to look for comments from some brokers.
your view on SAMART pls?
ueda
samart: watch for the rising channel support since aug. for stoploss and expect resistance at 10
de: what do you expect to be the st-target, scrt4u? 0.6?
zorro, DE's S-T target is probably .6-.7
Yes even an investor must 'spread' his risk by buying a portfolio of shares. I never invest more than 15% in any one company, and the vast majority of shares only have between a 5-10% holding. (SIS is currently on less than 3%).
Also dividend payouts are a great way to minimise accounting frauds. Most of the companies i invest in have yields of between 5 -10%. Enron was a prime example of this. They never paid much in the way of dividends which made is so much easier to cook the books. Dividends are a cash payment, and thus much harder to hide a problem, when the company is paying a high dividend yield. Of course this is not a certainy, just one indicator of comfort. Another thing to look for is cash flow opperations, not just profit.
Chilli
Chilli, thanks for your good post. Could you give a case study on cash flow of a company. I am interested in learning some fundamental analysis. If I am not wrong, It is one of indicatiors Buffet used to study a company. But Buffet read the Sheet of balance for 7 years. It is a hard job. I would like find a lazy way. Thanks in advance.
YNP: looks interesting. Stoploss at 5.30 Good luck.
POWER: move LPP to 3.25.
SINGHA: move LPP to 3.80
PSAP: move LPP to 1.28.
PTL: rebouncing. Move LPP to 3.20 Good luck.
zorro, tomorrow I will go to accompany my friends for a small holiday, I will be back on 30. Please take care of this blog. Thanks in advance.
have a good time
YNP: move LPP to 6.0
DE: move LPP to 0.48
gen is on the run. those who bought at 0.58 raise lpp to 0.6
de: now at 0.62, rsi getting overbought, raise lpp to 0.54 or better - as i did - cash in for the quick gain.
wow excellent call DE, congrat to all winners..thx scrt4u, zorro cheers
sillyfools
although i sold de a bit too early, i made some handsome profit. now it is better to stay away from de, overbought and volume peak, getting too dangerous. for the longterm de has still good potential.
gen: raise lpp to 0.64 for a part of your holdings and sell all if 0.6 is broken
psap: get ready to exit if 1.28 is broken
sigha: tested 75 day avg at 5, if it cannot break through, 25 day avg will be support (now at 3.6). volume nearing peak, so raise your lpp to 4.2. volume peak suggests the end is nearing.
thanks for good advice in de-I made a very good profit
pau
What about btc and warrants,tks and warrant,csl,tfd and warrant ?
Thanks pau
btc: looks good as it could advance above the 15 and 25 day avg, buy with stop 1.5. seamico's eddy suggests in todays report support 1.5-1.6 and resistance 1.9-2
btc-w2 is a bit epensive with a b&s value of 0.18, btc-w1 is cheaper (b&s=0.64 but difficult to trade due to the low volume)
tks touched yesterday a downchannel since mai and fell back, st looks bearish, still lower lows and lower highs. if tks can break 2.6 intraday i would jump in
csl: on the way up, buy with stop 3.6. strong resistance at 4.5, if broken on the weekly chart it would result in a strong rally.
tfd could be bought on weakness with stop 0.78, the warrant has a b&s value of only 0.13
To zorro : thank you very much for your fast and good comments !one beer for you !
pau
tfd: maybe a higher stop of 0.81 would be safer, because there is a nice rising support line since 17.7., if intraday 0.82 is broken, this would be a bad sign. for monday set intraday stop 0.83
ASCON: I recommended on 21 July 2006. It's up 20% in 5 days. Not bad!!! Now move LPP to 10.60. Enjoy.
GBX: what happened to this stock, zorro? It gapped up alot last Friday.
zorro, no one goes broke by taking the profit too early.
gbx: no idea what was going on.
gbx: now trading halted because of new regarding warrant issue. insiders knew about it on friday already and bought in.
need your comment on BNT, THECO, AP plzzz thx
ueda
bnt: i am keeping an eye on it as it looks like ready for a major pull-up by the punters. real value of this stock is questionable, but if the punters get bored with iec, and the other usual suspects, bnt might be in for a ramp.
macd is turning positiv, volume is picking up and bnt made a higher high, though the higher low is still missing. i am not sure about the future of this stock. maybe scrt4u has a clearer picture?
theco: is in a downchannel since may and recently failed to break the downresistance twice (21.7. and 27.7.), volume is getting weaker in the 1 year chart. i would buy at channelsupport (approx.1.2), now it seems to be too dangerous unless the channelresistance is broken
ap: made a double bottom, rsi shows bullish divergence, buy on weakness and sell at 3-3.2
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