Discussion Of Other Stocks No.1 2006

Happy Chinese Lunar New Year to Chinese visitors!

Dear investor of Thai stocks, I start this thread for discussion of your stock picks (exclusive of our cooking list)

SHIN: Singapore's state-run investment agency, Temasek Holdings, has purchased a 49% stake in Shin Corp (SHIN) at Bt49.25/share. Temasek borrowed Bt11bn from Siam Commercial Bank and another Bt14bn from Bangkok Bank to help finance the transaction. Look at the two charts below:


Since mid-November last year, SHIN has been in a quite big angle uptrend, this means that they are in a hurry to sell at a good price and complete the transfer as soon as possible. Now the price has broken the resistance at 47.75 (I guess it's an agreed price). BBL, SCB do not like the Singaporean to loose money borrowed from them. Temasek Holdings is a state-run investment agency of Singapore which does want to make money. Taksin's family still has 51% stake. Therefore four sides will join hands to punt up the stock. SHIN will most probably continue going up althought the price is in the high area. It's estimated SHIN most probable target is 50. Strategy: if the price can stay above the 47.75 support for 3 days or within the uptrend channel and you like, you can buy some with a stop at 47.25 or the lower line of the channel. Good luck. (updated on 24 Jan.06)


Kest: This stock has moved up over 60% since 6 Dec. 2005. If 33.5 is taken out, IP; if 31 is down broken, RP. It seems moving up again. IP with a stop at 28. (updated on 26 Jan. 06)

KSL: this stock has been moving very positively, over 100% up since trading. The Watcher, what a great call you made! Seeing is believing. Move LPP to 9.00. Good luck. But zorro said, phillip sec. recommended to sell ksl today: "A reduction in profit was due to lower-than expected-delivery. The drought has caused sugar price to increase, while production cost has also been adversely impacted. Despite higher sugar cane price, an increase in sales of raw sugar and higher production cost has caused gross profit margin to fall. Product price hike would be positive to performance but we see the news already discounted in the share price. As such, we rate "Reduce Position" on the stock. see also report from kelive from 3.1. It seems exited again. Move LPP to 10. ( updated on 26 Jan.06)

TPI: It seems that tpi is meeting some resistance. Look at the chart below and you'll see. Click the chart to enlarge.














CPF: Be cautious. Click chart to enlarge.














support is broken, suggest "RP". New support seems formed. IP with a stop at 5.65. (updated on 26 Jan. 06)

ITV: this stock seems in the resistance area. If it breaks down the support, "RP". Still in downtrend. (updated on 13 Jan. 06)

scrt4u

Cooking list of Stocks - No.1 2006

Happy Trading in 2006!

Here is the cooking list No.1 for the year of 2006:

MLINK: It seems that this stock is becoming hot. The Watcher and someone else drew my attention to it and after took a serious look, I put it in this cooking list. This company is an exclusive agent for NOKIA and MOTOROLLA with sizeable volume. Profits and EPS looking good. PM's sister, Wongsawat Family is the major owner of MLINK, she has 28.60% stake in it. It's said that she'd like to follow the suit as SC. Looking interesting. Let wait and see. Look at two charts below. The price broke the uptrend channel on 23 Jan.06. Suggest enter with a stop at 2.75. If it can take out 3.25, target 4 is reachable. Good luck. (updated on 28 Jan. 06)


SC: We had recommended this stock before this blog was published. It's said that SC will be sold to a Singaporean. Of couse they (the largest shareholders) would like to sell at a good price. There is a rumor that the Thai people will invest in a project in Singapore with the money from "sale" of this stock. Move LPP to 19.30. Click the chart to enlarge (Updated on 25 Jan.).


SOLAR: This stock is looking interesting. Suggest "Accumulate some with a stop at 8.80" . Did you cut loss today ? Probably it's a shakeout before "a pig fly"?! (updated on 18 Jan. 06)

MS: looking very charming, IP and set stop at 1.08 (updated on 23 Jan.06)

ATC: In an uptrend and moving up along 7 DMA. If you have it, use 7 DMA as stop. Exited. (updated on 18 Jan.)

NWR: Did you see ITD flying? nwr will most probably follow suit. In a TA view, it has broken a herizontal channel and also broken the downtrend channel. Since July 2005, it has never broken down the support at 0.98. We suggest buy. Now take a macro view, it's still within the horizotal channel, you should IP in the past several days. It's now is still in downtrend (updated on 23 Jan. 06) Take a macro and micro view at the charts as follows. Click the charts to enlarge:

Delta: This stock has been moving healthily since late last October 2005. Move LPP to 17.40. Exited and still waiting for re-entry point (updated on 23 Jan 06)

Samco: This stock has been punted up by two Thai funds. I suggested a "RP"(RP=reduce position) after a seemingly distribution, then I suggested a "IP"(IP=Increase positions) . Now move lpp to 2.92. It has move up about 35% since our recommendation. Not bad. The Thai Fund punting up this stock is relative retailer-friendly. It seemingly does not shake out violently. The price has been moving by many small steps, namely "up a little daily" so to reduce the day trader's impact. Be cautious. It broke 7DMA. Move LPP to 2.95. If this LPP is broken, RP. (updated on 23 Jan. 06)



MIDA: This stock was recommended when its price was about 2.10, it has been moving up positively. There seems some resistance around 2.9-3.0. Now fact has proved that my resistance area is right. If you lock your profit near the resistance area, you are smiling now. Now it's nearing the resistance area again, most probably it can up break it. If not, RP again.(updated on 23 Jan.)

Click the chart to enlarge

SPL: This stock have very strong support at 30.50 for over one year. I recommended it at its yearly low. It's been moving positively. Now move up your LPP (lock profit point) to 34.00 Exited and waiting for re-entry. (updated on 23 Jan.)

EASON: This stock looks cooking. Recommended by zorro. Keep an eye on it. If you like, accumulate bit by bit with a stop at 2.60. Exited and waiting for re-entry. Take small position with a stop at 2.50. Good luck. (updated on 23 Jan. 06)

NOBLE: Shooting up in the last several days. This stock was on our cooking list for long time. If you re-entered last year, you're smiling now. Move up LPP to 4.18. Good luck. Exited and waiting for re-entry. Accumulate small position with a stop at 4.00 (updated on 23 Jan. 06)

JAS: It's been on our cooking list for long. Move up LPP to 0.61. Exited and waiting for re-entry. Re-enter with a stop at 0.49 (updatdated 23 Jan.06)

Q-CON: this stock looking warming up again. We recommended it when it's below 2.75, move your lpp at 3.00 Exited. (updated on 19 Jan. 06).

NEP and Nep-w1: This stock and its warrant are recommended by zorro. They are here because of long term bottom pick. (updated on 19 Jan.)

SEAFCO: Seems cooking. You may buy with a stop at 3.65 Move lpp up to 3. 70 Exited and get ready to re-enter. Re-entered with a stop at 3.84 (updated on 23 Jan. 06)

Very important: Remember, never allow your loss to exceed 10%.

We'll add more...

Happy stock trading.

scrt4u & zorro

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A: No, you can not. If you have a very good stock chart or picture, you can tell me. I can upload it for you.

Q: I'm new to Thai stock market, is it easy to profit there?
A: The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) is relatively small compared with other stock markets. Due to its small size, SET is full of more speculations and risks, but in a sense, speculations = opportunities. If you select the right stock with the right timing, you make money for sure.

Q: I'd like to try my luck on Thai stock market. How do I start?
A: There are quite a number of stock brokerage firms in Thailand. I recommend some of them: Kim Eng, ASP, Seamico, KGI , all the brokerage firms. You can visit their sites by clicking the names and start a trial account.

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A: The flags represent different languages. Just click the flag, a new widow will open and the page will be automatically translated into the language. The accuracy is not satisfactory, but could be helpful for those who do not know English to understand the general idea of the web page.

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A: This blog is a little slow to load to your browser because of the rich contents. We try to shorten the page to improve it. On the other hand, are you using FireFox to surf this site? If not, I suggest you to try it. FireFox is faster and with Google search bar as well as it is FREE.

Q: How to check if a brokerage firm's research reports are useful?
A: The simplest way is read the report sumary and take notes of the target price of the stock they promote. Then wait for the time to prove them. If time proves most of them , the brokerage firm reports are good.

Q: How to check if a brokerager firm's recommendations are useful?
A: use the same method as above. Go to their website and compare their historic recommendations on "buy" and "sell" with the charts and you will know they are sinere or not.

Q: What is LPP? What does "cooking" mean?
A: LPP = Lock profit point. It's based on "trend is your best friend". When a stock shows possible cooking(price seems ready to go up), you just sit quietly at the table. As long as more dishes come to the table, you stay at the table, enjoying the courses of foods and dishes (This is "keep moving up the LPP"). Whenever the chef could not offer more dishes or the chef seems tired, you are to leave the table for another table (this is called "lock your profit"). When we say "Move LPP tightly", we advise you to set the "lock profit point" very near its high, which is usually in the case of a sudden big price increase and big volume; this strategy is to help you to maximize your prifit. When we say "move LPP to [x] or higher", we mean that you sell the stock at the price or at a higher price.

What does "set stop at" mean?
"Set Stop at [...] " means that after you buy a stock, you are strongly advised to get ready to sell your stocks if the price of the stock is going down instead of up and down to the price(stop point). For example, when we suggest you to buy BBL at 100 and "set stop at '90', we mean to say that you sell BBL if it's not going up to 110 but down to 95 -> 98 -> 90. This is to try to limit your loss as small as 10%. A tight stop = 3% loss. When we say use tight stop, we mean you have to sell your shares when the stock price is down 3% than your cost.

What does "brokeout" mean?
"Breakout" means the price of the stock has moved out of its previous support line, trend channel or box or pattern. This means that the stock is most probably going in an opposite direction.

What is "chase"?
"Chase" means that you are advised to buy the stock when it shows an "uptrend" signal.

What does RP or exit stand for?
"RP" is a short term for "reduce your stock position"; "reduce your stock position" means sell some of your stock shares. "Exit" means sell all of the stock shares.

How to start?
If you are new, you are strongly advised to start slowly, don't invest (or gamble) with much money until you are more familiar with the trading. It can take a year or more. Don't follow the advise here blindly. Check the fundamentals of the stocks as well and read the news, especially the daily news regarding the stocks given by the stock exchange of thailand. Be careful with recommendations from the broker, they act many times in the interest of their big clients and often give buy recommendations because they want to sell the stock for their favorit customers. That's why we stick here more to technical analysis. Try to do some paper trading, which means you don't actually buy the shares but instead note down the trades you would have made and follow them up. This will save you a lot of money. Do this for several month till you see that your trades would have been successful and outperformed the market. You will need to learn about this market, even if you have trading experience in other countries. There are many things to learn, like which stocks are only pushed up for 1 day and might fall back to where they came from, which stocks are played by foreigners, which by the locals, which by people from certain political groups, that a high bid volume is often fake and indicates a bearish stock and so on...

Q: If I think there are some other "Q & A" should be added in the FAQ?
A: Any suggestions are most appreciated. You can post your suggestions under the latest thread.

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scrt4u

Useful Website links for Thai Stock Trading

Thanks to the efforts by zorro and all other contributors, we got the useful websites links for Thai stock trading as follows: Updated on 9 Jan. 2006

(Note: If you have any links that contain more or better information than the below listed ones, please feel free to add. will keep the list updated and repost it from time to time. websites should provide free info in English. if somebody wants to collect thai-sites, please do so in another thread. If there is an important link in a general website, please give the detailed address.

A) Thai Market

1. Online-broker (some do NOT provide research in English, check before opening an account)

http://www.poems.co.th/
http://www.seamico.com/eng/home.asp
http://www.tiscoetrade.com/Tisco/login.jsp
http://www.tiscosec.com/index.jsp
http://www.kgieworld.co.th/
http://www.natseconline.com/login.jsp?txtBrokerId=016
http://www.dbsvonline.com/English/index.asp
http://www.kks.co.th/index_en.html
http://inv2.asiaplus.co.th/abn/web/eng/index.jsp
http://www.scis.co.th/en/home.php
http://www.tsecstock.com/en/index.asp
http://www.trinitythai.com/home/index.jsp
http://www.bfitsec.com/brokerpage/027/web/index.html
http://www.ivs.co.th/
http://www.unitedsec.com/login.jsp?txtBrokerId=038

2. Research

2.1 Free broker research:
http://www.kgieworld.co.th/research/researchpaper_main.asp
http://kelive.kimeng.co.th/kelive/userview/Home.jsp?cntry=TL&lang=en
http://www2.phatrasecurities.com/researchdistribution/
http://www.scis.co.th/en/research_center.php?cat=all&catname=ALL
http://www.tsecstock.com/en/index.asp
http://www.poems.co.th/

2.1 Analyst consensus
http://www.settrade.com/S13_FastQuote.jsp?txtBrokerId=IPO&txtSymbol=TTA&selectPage=10

3. News / Newspapers
http://www.thailandoutlook.com/thailandoutlook1/top%20menu/investor%20news
http://news.search.yahoo.com/search/news?p=thailand&adv=1&n=10&ei=UTF-8&datesort=1
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/
http://www.bangkokpost.com/
http://www.fnweb.com/main/
http://www.biz-day.com/

4. Charts
http://www.asiachart.com
https://trading.kimeng.co.th/ms4j.asp

5. Sector specific information

5.1 Shipping (Baltic dry index):
http://www.naftemporiki.gr/markets/quotegraph.asp?id=.BADI&ctime=3M&cperiodicity=D&cstyle=L (most recent data)

http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm
http://www.maxmart.com.tw/g.htm
http://www.maxmart.com.tw/f-e.htm

5.2 metal and plastics
http://www.lme.co.uk/
http://www.cruspi.com/

6. General SET-links
http://www.set.or.th/en/index.html
http://www.set50.com/start.htm
http://www.settrade.com/login.jsp?txtBrokerId=IPO
http://www.sec.or.th/en/index.php

7. Others
Insider Trading: http://capital.sec.or.th/webapp/corp_fin/daily59e.php
NVDR holding: http://www.set.or.th/set/nvdr/nvdrholderinput.do

8. Link pages
http://ethailand.com/index.php?express

9. Websites that offer useful info but need registration:
http://www.thaistockwatch.com

B) World Markets / General links
1. Stock market indices
http://quote.yahoo.com/m2

2. Futures
http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/
http://www.unitedfutures.com/quotes.htm
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html

3. Technical Analysis
http://stockcharts.com/education
http://www.tradingday.com/c/tatuto/

4. Others:
http://www.espenhaug.com/black_scholes.html
http://www.msci.com/structural/index.html

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Posted by zorro
in the snakepit
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