Stocks discussion No.10 -2011
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posted by scrt4u @ Saturday, October 01, 2011
260 Comments
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
260 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.10 - 2011". Please post your questions or stock picks here.
So SET went down, but foreigners been net buyers, does it mean stocks are cheap enough now for them to start moving the market up? I think unlikely.
HI EVERYONE
WAS WATCHING CNA LAST NIGHT AND ONE OF THE ANALYST IN THAT PROGRAM SAID THAT ON THE 23RD AUG THERE WAS A DEATH CROSS IN THE USA MARKET WHICH WAS A SIGNAL TO SELL WORLDWIDE EQUITIES .
SURE ENOUGH SEPT WAS A DOWN MONTH FOR WORLD WIDE EQUITIES.
DOES SOMEONE OUT THERE KNOW WHAT A DEATH CROSS IS AND HOW CAN WE SPOT IT . WOULD ALWAYS BE GOOD TO KNOW, TO TAKE OPPURTUNITY OF THIS IN THE FUTURE.
EUROPE IS STILL POSING A PROBLEM SO WE COULD STILL SEE THE DOLLAR BECOMING STRONGER, WHICH WILL STILL CAUSE THE SHARES TO GO DOWN.
CHEERS
SAM
Doesn't look it. in the 800 range now. Recession is word mentioned much more these days. Greece didn't meet it's obligation in reductions. So the Euro is not doing well, nor is the states.
From this point I will be looking for buy in rates. As they say catching falling knife. Question is how far will it fall? Thailand Government a month old and they have been given a very bad hand top play. These floods should present opportunities, when the finally clear. So that is a sector to watch I believe Hardware suppliers, road construction Ect.
If this goes the way I believe it is going to go I'm not buying any short term holdings. I think this is going top be a long ride. Hope I'm wrong
Calling on all chartist again
880 was a target resulting from a top formation. no real support there.
now the set reached again this level and one could hope for a double bottom at 867, but it is better to see it forming before entering.
next good support is at 800, then 720.
i guess there will be no big rebound from this level, more likely we get another steep drop this week.
wait for a support or a buying signal to avoid getting hurt by the falling knife.
a buying signal could be a reversal formation when looking at the candlesticks (like a hammer, bullish engulfing, etc.), the break of the 5 day average at closing or buy at the end of the year hoping for a new year rally.
well from fridays close and looking at my so called charts,i would guess around a 15 per cent downside to the SET and 20 per cent downside for the banks.Will of course repeat last weeks shopping if the circuit breakers come close this afternoon as they did 1 week ago,a simple get in and get out.
Dollar should definately weaken very soon and ime calling a 25-26 bht dollar baht exchange for 2012.
All strong Asean currencies should rise with it.Dont blindly think U.S, is anywhere close to getting out of the shxxt for a long time yet.Anway thats my comments for the day,one more thing,when the markets do rebound,it can sometimes be immpossible to get in as they open up on there maximums,so if you are in already at the time,you get the automatic trip.This last happenned in and around 1998 and i was lucky to be in,this is only a maybe situation,beware and be lucky
I believe the current key is the EURO and Greece I.E. the dollar is gaining strength Euro is losing losing strength.
At the moment the U.S. is being ignored but that is where money went to the dollar, Gold is moving up again. More then likely money that had been going to the dollar. 25 to 26 America would love that. So I don't think the Thai Government will allow that. But, these are different times who knows.
I think the buy range will be in the 700's.
Good luck to all
Death Cross, new one to me I book marked the page I want to be able to recognize the Golden cross
A HISTORY OF THE STOCK MARKET’S DEATH CROSS
Written on June 29, 2010 by David in Battlefield Preparations, Battlefield Strategy, Market Opinion
0 Comments - Leave a comment!
There has been much talk in the financial press lately about the “death cross” (a.k.a. dark cross) that is threatening to rear its ugly head in the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, not to mention the DOW and the FUTURES. The death cross is simply the market’s way of describing the 50 period moving average crossing below its sister the 200 period moving average. The opposite of the death cross is the golden cross that last made its appearance in June 2009, the beginning of the bull rally from the edge of the abyss. Supposedly, when these moving averages cross it is time to either go long or short, depending on the cross. PLEASE NOTE: do not let the GOLDEN CROSS pass you by.
The death cross, while threatening the indices mentioned above, has already formed on the NYSE Composite Index and the $OEX (S&P 100). In the charts below the pink line is the 50 SMA and the brown line represents the 200 SMA.
This may come in handy in the days to come only place I know of to get a five chart of the SET.
Mid August of 2010 was the last time we were at these current levels.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SET:IND
This gives as good an explanation as I could find on the Death Cross and Golden Cross.
http://www.stockmarketcats.com/f7/golden-cross-death-cross-12664.html
750 ish is my call for now,correct Ray,the dollar is strong but only for now,it is pretty certain to go in reverse gear with the brakes off,the U,S,A is technicaly bankrupt,mark my words the dollar will go the highway to hell,aqnyone want a beer on it ??>)Asian currencies are the ones to be with for the medium-long term,the world has changed around and very important,if you are all living in Thailand,make sure you are holding bht and at this stage liquid is the safest haven (ie anything you can cash in not more than 24 hrs)Dollar may go up first but its going downhill after that at a hell of a pace but maybe not til 2012 onwards.
Not rocket science.
Dollar I'm not disagreeing with you. It would already be where you say if the BOT had not supported it.
It's not always an advantage to have the strongest currency. Exporters in the States would love to have it at 24 baht.
correct Ray its not so good to have a strong currency if you are a big exporting one (thats another scarey thing),but i dont think the governments wants another ass kicking like 14 years before and think they will let their currencies go wherever the powers that be take it and after north,the dollar is going deep south and then there may be some value in some western currencies but they be not as solid as before and Asean currencies should proove a lot safer.Lets wait and see,ime not talking short term.At least now the Thai market has come down to the levels of other asian mkts now.as b4,it was 15 per cent behind,so that had to be corrected.
Heres hoping for an up but i feel further to drop first.Lets hope theres a Turkey on our plates come xmas>)
BOT bought more Gold today. I think I will follow their example
HI JON/RAY
RAY THANKS FOR YOUR DEATH CROSS ARTICLES , WILL TRY AND STUDY THEM FURTHER.
JON - YOUR CALL COULD BE CORRECT IF WE LOOK AT FIBO NUMBERS THEN THE FIRST POINT IS CLOSE TO THE CLOSE OF TODAY . 855
THE SECOND POINT WOULD 764 POINT OR VERY CLOSE TO YOUR CALL.
THE NEXT NUMBER WOULD BE 671 WHICH WOULD BE A REALLY BAD SITUATION FOR THAILAND , SOMETHING LIKE THE BAHT FALLING TO AROUND 50 SHOULD TAKE IT THERE , OR SOME NEW POLITICAL DRAMA.
GOLD IS IN A BUBBLE , TRY AND AVOID IT , UNLESS YOU CAN HOLD FOR A LONG LONG TIME . I WOULD SERIOUSLY LOOK AT GOLD WHEN IT TOUCHES SOMETHING LIKE 1000 - 1200 USD PER OZ.
CHEERS
SAM
think BOT called it right but i will settle for my moderate gold investment with the tracker fund i use on the SET,GLD,can i can get in and out on a push of a button
Thanks Sam,
This is a tough one the Euro Zone is still flip flopping around, I believe that is what is really driving all this. If you look at the productions numbers out the States, there in the black. Their not saying recession, this is fear driven. That is what people believe and long a that exists we are going lower. Things held pretty good in the 850 range today. It gets close to 800 I think a time to really pay attention.
I'm waiting before any buying I think we are going lower.
I have to study that one as well Sam I had never heard of it before either.
I also wait for big banks to drop more before enter, KBANK 90++ or SCB 80++
Just read report on them they are forcasting 7% down, from the original projection
I 4rade with Kim Eng their advise is to wait to accumulate and to watch the EURO zone
Meow called this two weeks ago I believe:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-04/s-p-500-falling-below-1-100-puts-bear-market-in-view-for-wien.html
Hi guys,where do you get 50 bht -the dollar sam,those days are long gone,at least for many years to come,that wont happen but I wish it would ? ime still calling half that, which should in fact push the market up on the highway to heaven but of course we are in for a long wait and, yes of course it will hurt forex earnings for some but hey,it was a 25 bht pegged dollar from donkeys years ago til the bht snapped,the SET did reach 2000 in those days at the 25 - dollar and 40- the pound.Guaranteed ,lots of turbulance in the government coming here,like i called in an earlier post and ime sticking to my guns but what a perfect time to enter the market when that happens.Sorry my posts are long but when i feel strongly,i express to the full.If you have not noticed,foreighners have bought in more than they have sold so far this week,should and could be a good sighn,institutions are dragging it down just like they can bring it up.Still down to come,i feel but could get rosey pretty soon,G nite its whiskey o,clock for me >)
I will let Sam answer his comments. But, I can see where he is coming from Thai government came into a defecit. The previous Government spent a lot of money trying to keep the masses happy. Red shirt are still out almost daily in small groups.
I read a book called Thailand's Boom and Bust, relates to 97. There have been a lot of promises made, there is good chance if they do deliver, to stay in office. Things ,may very different then any of us know.
I watched Bernakies address to Congress last night nothing exciting. U.S Congress is trying to mess with China and the exchange rate, At the moment it appears China is the U.S. biggest customer.
People got excited that E.U., in the end what they really did was schedule another meeting.
In all honesty I don't see clear direction yet except down and Thailand won't be immune. So I'm hoping for the mid ground.
Sorry to bring politics into this but that is the driving force at the moment
i was right here throughout the boom and bust and the crash of 97,thats why i dont think they will get caught out againbut hey,i would love to see the dizzy heights of the dollar,pound etc when it happenned,hope your right SAM.Anyway,maybe the SET will finish up today,who am i to know??
I'm glad I bailed out at the end of Sept, keeping my Kim Eng acc't open and am now playing the same game most of us are: the waiting game!
Now with all this free time on my hands, I tried to visit Barton's {Global Markets) goat farm. Never able to find the place ;-)
Since I'm waiting as well, saw something interesting on ASIAN T.V. They had a lady on who works with the Gold Something or rather today.
Seem it more tied to Euro then the dollar Euro down gold up, Euro up Gold down. Recent drop was from a sale off to cover stock position.
Recommended taking shorts on it, get profit as you can and buy back on healthy dips.
Or hold mid to long term
Since I know nothing of it sounds reasonable to me
Foreigners net buyers again, they did not let SET today to fall into negative territory(it was on the way). Interesting development and can mark the end of the downtrend that started in the beginning of August? We need few more days like that to confirm it.
Be very very careful right now:
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_world_business/view/1157427/1/.html
everyone make profits :)
beware profit taking ahead...resistance around 920
been riding it out and buying the dips,if it goes up,great,if it goes lower tha before,i buy more,a gambler through and through
bought and sold dtac 4 times in the last 9 trading days,intrady not day trading,holding again at 71.75 bought on the 4th.
Again,i think if the dow continues tonite,should follow on up,but i agree,tread with caution,whatever happens in the near term,i am bullish for the end of the year but the ugly can bring in more buying opps
I'm happy for all but never loose sight the E.U. is still there and so far all they are doing is talking. nothing new there. Might be time for a trailing stop.
Good Luck
set: broke throught the 5 day avg and stayed well above.
the candles look a bit like "3 inside up" pattern which is a bullish reversal.
i am fully invested again but will chicken out if the 5 day avg gets broken or the foreigners moving out again.
Zorro are you getting candlesticks on the SET
All I can find is graft which really doesn't tell me what I need.
my broker provides them but i prefer doing an excel chart for the set.
you can get the technical recommendation with a candle chart from http://www.poems.in.th/home/en/index.htm when clicking on market monitor (pdf) in the research commentaries column.
charts, which ones do you want,they go many ways,a simple ruler and pencil and commen sense is all thats needed.Never forget,the stock market is a casino and the only way to win,is play with the dealer,most players dont know how to play poker and the house always wins,work that one out and you have a good chance g luck >)
Thanks Zorro
Found a lot of other goodies on their as well
Well 21 not a card counter, but I understand candle sticks, to a degree
all indicaters that i use,show positive today,should open quite high again.Not about the candlesticks Ray,they are just ornaments that can misguide you,its about how to play with the house,thats the tricky bit,your broker is not there for the small commissions,thats only 5-10 per cent of their earnings come from.Work out where the most comes from ??
another clue there for you.Follow the sheep and you will get casught.like i say,we are all learning .)
I never follow Kim Eng Recommendations, they are to slow, I call the annalyist and talk to them. Good advice so far.
I'm not going with the flow this time I'm waiting for a buy in.
The reason is simple all the E.U. is talking just as they do all the time no action. Brits didn't believe them and did a Q.E. to get ready.
I'm going to take some profits on Gold today and step out.
Just finished reading the Oct. ECB report, they have left rates unchanged. They are tightening finance.
The long an short of it they are waiting for the world economy to move forward and bail them out.
What I see is they have been the anchor slowing the vessels down so far.
But, I'm a novice experts may get a very different read on it. They are due for a new ECB head soon and it's Italy's turn.
Mr. market will let us know if I read it right or not
think you watch too much CNBC Ray,i get great tips from them useless complete (not actualy complete >)) idiots.They just use any excuse that suits them on the day and again,they are there to miguide you.
Take a look whats going on around you right here in Thailand ,what you see,tells a story ,a very strong story to me..)
what a lovely roller coaster,fun to watch the blind and the 1 eyed man playing tug of war.All my indicaters are positive today even if we go down,it is very very positive >)
Yes whoevever called the strong ressistance at 930 was quite correct but lets watch the game .>)ime still riding it out fully loaded,just waiting for DTAC to go a touch higher,then ime back out of it again.
Telecoms in my oppinnnion did not correct like other stock (yet),so not taking the risk,Gday
I agree if the start acting on things. But they are barely keeping their heads above the flood water at the moment. I use lot more then CNBC LOL. Steve Jobs may he rest in Peace but an entire day of his death was to much even for me.
Unfortunately no island exists and Thailand is effected to a lesser degree (I'm happy to say) as the rest of the world, The other markets went down last week and everyone was headed for what they believed to be the safe haven.
Thailand went down and up in march step with the other markets. If they get past this disaster, with floods I expect to see great things. As they are planning turning inward as opposed to exports. I think these days that is an excellent plan. Lots of factories being built here, from major companies. I'm not down on Thailand at all.
But, at this juncture it is effected by the other markets
Just my humble thoughts.
now youve got it Ray,.)
ueda called 920 as resistance, i have the 15 day avg standing at 938 which could restrict the upward movement but the stroger resistance (or important one) might be the horizontal at 945.
kgi mentioned today a resistance at 930 in the daily navigator but i have no clue which type it is.
the dax is close to the important horizontal res. around 5700, will be interesting if it can be broken today
with rice mortage scheme in place now, any rice company wl get benefit going forward? but not many choices hahh, only PR & KASET ( same shareholder w/ TVO )
viewing TTW new website and i heard they gradually expand toward green projects as well. With attractive divident & if they dont get hit by flooding, it's worth to collect this for medium-long term.
for EU after greece i guess portugal wl be the next target so the global outlook still pretty blur until next year & i just play in/out on with several die hard stocks CPF, CPALL, BBL, MAKRO
scrt4u since more participants join your blog, shall we meet up one day & hv a gathering together :))
I picked up some good buys today
TTW
EASTW
MCOT.
Got in for less then I sold them for all good dividend stocks.
good Ray, we hv the same pick on TTW, you should keep it until reach 7 again :)
hope TTW, EASTW not affected by flooding
That's a good question. I know Bangkok has got some flooding from a friend visiting there.
The prices were at the current level before the flooding. Kind of nice to make money when somebody uses water in Bangkok.
They are both in the Mai, so I would guess being overlooked by the foreign money now
Mcot is still going down I'm tempted to pick up some more.
MCOT is a good buy right now, a bid at 24.80 might just get a few shares. But my excitement is getting ahead of my game SO I'm done for the day.
More cherry picking nest week.
PR from my past experience as always been user freindly .>)
The tug of war still goes on and the blind are bringing down right now,still 30 minutes left to go though.I never find cherries when the seas been green all day ?I look when the reds are out in force >)Only picked up Tisco up at 31 today,only trading ive done so far today
Well the arguments are already starting in the E.U. The U.S. Job report is expected to be be dismissal so you can bet I didn't spend it all today.
Still some unhappy reds running around over the military reshuffle.
Thailand is an ever changing entity, keeps me busy LOL
Well pre mkt I saw positive sighns,after mkt more positive sighns,so i am positive.
Ijust love these roller coastert rides
Had a good day at the races,sold CPALL 48bht (bought 43.25 4th)DTAC bht73.75 (71.75 4th) bought TISCO 31.just love these roller coaster days,
Collected a few more SATand SVI at the bargain basement of today.
Steak and Penfolds tonight,sea food and skotch tommorrow and plenty of beer tokens left over for the sports, all in all,a great day,a great week, have a nice weekend guys,til Monday,over and out >))
Look like the E.U is catching up with us again.
What would be a good buy in ADVANC
DTAC or ADVANC a better long tern hold?
TASCO asphalt & NEP sandbag run pretty well this morning
it's a pity thais under major flood crisis but...somehow few more other stocks wl get benefit during this event? perhaps other construction material DCC, DRT or commerce BJC, HMPRO or ???
And I wl buy ROJNA IF fall to 4-4.5
I wouldn't over look Global, new kid on the block in stocks. But it's been around for years. As a real contractors supply.
bought TASCO-W3 6.2 & flying now :)
Tasco was on the move big time today.
I still have 50 warrants from the last go round nothing I can with them. But, they look pretty LOL
ADVANC and DTAC are bot good trading stocks,earned a whopping 30k out of ADVANCE bought in June sold in July,DTAC ,i bought back in again at my usual price so a 2-4bht rise and i will be on a 5 timer,will add if it goes down.Still a touch worried bout telcoms as the 3g saga still goes on and they never corrected like other sectors (yet)I like DCC AS it has no debt and pays a divy 4 times a year.
Hey Rey,ive just seen an upside down candlestick,what does that mean ?? .>)
Thanks.
A signal for change, if it's the first day. Best Guess
LOL
Darn you Jon made me go look LOL
I assume your talking about a hanging man or Harmi. It can signal a the start of down trend. The by itself really means very little. It has to be supported by other candle sticks or Doji's.
So until you see over the next few days, what happens not enough call anything yet. It's kind of like a sign pay attention, cause something may change.
its already changing Ray,book early and dont miss the boat,if you have,then wait for the turbulance that is sure to happen in the government,then if you are quick,you can go shopping again.Alot of people got caught out today with the flooding but i was shopping again.
Candle sticks come in all shapes and sizes.This is happy hour ,forget the bullsxxt from USA and Europe.
Of course,there could be another ugly turn for the worst and stand by my call of 750 if this happens but history ,if it repeats itself,the crash of the 70s (globally),if you bought in the bear mkt,you got much better dividends than the bull mkt of the 80s.I am medium to long term ,so I cannot ressist quality stock that repeatedly pays good divis.I just play around a bit when the roller coaster is rolling and for the last few months,ive been playing and rolling.
Easy to say now but everything looking positive for tommorrow,hope the candles on fire >)))Gluck tommorrow guys (book early).>)
set: reounded from 5 day avg, not near the 15 avg which should be broken tomorrow.
the dow is strong, tomorrow we will see what happens at the important 940-950 resistance.
profit taking or break through to the 25 avg at 970?
Correct Zorro,lets hope it breaks,oil stocks at the least should open high,
ime gambling on the break through ,as i mentioned earlier,all my indicaters are positive at least for the short term but ime gambling longer than that ???>)
Oh Ray ,How do you fancy wagering a bottle of scotch on gold breaking 2,000 by Chinese new year ??.If not before,come on ,you r in the stck mkt,give it a blast >)Man or Mouse,I drink J and B by the way >))
Correct Zorro,lets hope it breaks,oil stocks at the least should open high,
ime gambling on the break through ,as i mentioned earlier,all my indicaters are positive at least for the short term but ime gambling longer than that ???>)
Oh Ray ,How do you fancy wagering a bottle of scotch on gold breaking 2,000 by Chinese new year ??.If not before,come on ,you r in the stck mkt,give it a blast >)Man or Mouse,I drink J and B by the way >))
HI JON,
I DO NOT KNOW ABOUT RAY , BUT IF YOU DO NOT MIND I WILL GLADLY TAKE YOU UP ON YOUR OFFER .
I DO NOT THINK THAT GOLD WILL HIT 2000 USD PER OZ BY CHINESE NEW YEAR.
CHEERS
SAM
only value i see right here right now is SAT but i topped up on that yesterday.I know the floods are slowing it down but it has a solid future and one of the few stocks you can still buy at yesterdays price .>)
Hana may be a good buy late on if it gets around ten, it's flooded but hold work interruption insurance.
Candle stick I see what you mean now. you have you to look at patterns. So Friday was high. Monday started low hence the upside down candle, that was the signal to watch sort of nutural for lack of better words. Now here is the key today's open was higher then, The beginning was higher then the top of the last candle sticks. If that holds we are in a uptrend.
All that said I watch a lot more then Candle sticks, before I buy or sale.
They are just easier for me to see then solid grafts.
Next year I;m going to learn how to spell NOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
set: horizontal resistance reached, pretty much exactly in line with the highs from 26/27 and 28 of september
To SAM,
Please post your email here (it won't show to the public) so that we can invite you to become one of the contributors. Just accept the invitation and you will be one of the contributors.
I'm a cheap Charlie you know that Sam and don't drink to top it off. Although there are times lately seems like a real good idea.
ok Sam,a bottle of scotch is in order,whats your choice (not that i will need to know)?? Chinese new year should be a happy one >))
Hey Ray, have they lit the candle at the top of the candlestick yet ??
Hope they light it at the bottom and then we can call it a rocket right ??
hope we beat todays 950 ressistance,then all should be happy,still chance to buy SAT at open bid of 18 bht,dont say i didnt tell you ,DTAC,just waiting a touch more for a 5 timer >)) Happy days
We don't want to see any wicks just big solid candle which is what we have now, volumes are equal to Thursday of last week and higher then yesterday
Hey Ray,is the anchor still out,or have they reeled it in ?? hope you didnt miss the boat as buying opps are getting tricky .>))
Dont follow the blind as the one eyed man will always be king .>)
maybe the wicks been lit up already from the candle i found ?? the upright ones that a couple of you guys found burnt out quickly .>) (dig)
HI JON,
CHINESE NEW YEAR IS 23RD JAN 2012 , MY POISON IS A BLACK LABEL , AND PROBABLY YOUR COMPANY , HOPEFULLY YOU STAY IN BANGKOK , SO IT MAKES IT EASIER , EITHER WAY .
IF YOU HAD A LONGER TERM WAGER I WOULD HAVE THOUGHT ABOUT IT, BUT SINCE IT IS ONLY 90 DAYS GIVE OR TAKE , I AM UP FOR IT .
LONGER TERM , SAY A FEW YEARS LIKE 2015 - 2016 SOMETHING THAT A LOT OF PEOPLE DO NOT THINK OF AND PEOPLE ON THIS BLOG CERTAINLY NOT , I AM SUPER BULLISH ON GOLD , WITH A PRICE TARGET OF AROUND 4000 USD AND UP .
CHEERS
SAM
HI EVERYONE,
ANYONE HAVE ANY INSIGHT ON MPIC,
THEY ARE OWNED BY MAJOR , 6 MONTH PROFIT IS BETTER THEN 12 MONTHS OF LAST YEAR BUT PRICES HAVE COME DOWN FROM AROUND 2.3 - 2.40 BAHT TO AROUND 1.4 - 1.5 BAHT.
CHEERS
SAM
Jon that just means we finished higher for the day. Hopefully tomorrow we be above that tomorrow.
Things are volatile these days hard to chart anything. but that's two days in a row. we get another one tomorrow, we might just be on to d something.
No I didn't miss the boat Jon I did just fine. But, still hold dividend stocks. Except for Tasco. I'm really pretty much done till November when I will start looking at buys again.
But, your giving me a refresher in Candle Sticks LOL I don't mind kind of fun. Everything still hinges on if the Euro zone actually does something or continues to talk it to death.
Read something the other day I thought was interesting the BOT has been working hard at keeping the baht in the 30 to 31 range.
I have been following that for five years now, seen them support the dollar and support the baht. I believe their range right now is 29 to 31.
Dollar went up today Gold went down.
The market is still running in fear so we will have good days and bad ones for sometime to come I believe.
all in all,that should have been a good day for all,had to sell a few TISCO to hedge my bet with SAM.
Glad you can take a joke Ray as to me it makes this blog more fun and not too serious which is positive.
The bht actually lost a touch on the dollar on my data and gold is at the same level unless you call 0.39 per cent as down.
Still calling the 25-26bht dollar in the medium to long term and nothing the BOT can do about it.Tried before and lost the poker game big style.
The blind lost out by a long way today and yet again,the one eyed man was king.My indicaters point north tommorrow even b4 the Dow opens.
Personally i think any shopping should have been done last month as the last quarter anywhere is normally positive and my advice is stay in the mkt. (the 97 crash was november,so should be noted)
Export companies have already geared up for a 29bht dollar for 2012,they maybe will have to adjust that sooner than they think.
Hope some day we can all meet up,be lucky and goodnite >)
I knew you were kidding around that 29 as mentioned has already been established.
I re-entered the market last week, but with some trepidation. BAY and MCOT have done okay. I'm awaiting a move from KGI. Took Jon's suggestion, got a bunch of SAT @ 18. Time will tell if his crystal ball is cloudy or not ;-)
Hi Sam,ok that black label stuff yuk,how can you drink that,get a life?? even red tastes better,thought you would have least been green.In Bangers right now and travel up here every month for bussiness mixed with pleasure.Pattaya ,Rayong tommorrow,so really no fixed abode but can be anytime anywhere etc.
SAT looks solid but in the short term effected by the floods as it suppies Honda etc but i always buy when there is negative news as i think medium to long and believe it will catch up sooner rather than later,ime a gambler and hope at this time nxt week,everything will be back to normal and the floods have gone.I also hold KGI ,they have a massive dividend if they stick to it.I dont have a crystal ball but do have experience and hopefully ,common scense ???
Hi SAM,i will be in Cambodia on the 23rd jan but i am willing to wait a few days for the J and B that you will have purchased and even willing to come back up to Bangers and share it with you,if you win (most unlikely)I already have a bottle of green label which i trust you are willing to share ?? if not,back to the crappy black label >)
Tommorrows mkt WILL be decided by retail,depending which way they want to go.(another clue there for you all)
my indicaters are now showing we may finish down today as i beleive the foreighners could be profit taking today but the retail is short,so we may go up first.
Only a guide that may be wrong but thought better to mention it anyway
Of all things Solvaka may have thrown a wrench in the gears. It put off it's vote till the 23Rd.
If you look at the candle sticks. you can see that it isn't as long as they day before. That would mean volumes to the pus side was not as good as before.
Foreigners were net buyers yesterday may see some profit taking today
Well the new candle was starting at the top of the other one. That means up. Watch the 1430 opening
i stand by this mornings tip and did you see that double top,could be a chance to chip away at what may be a few bargains out there,added SAT and SVI sold some Tisco ,will wait for 5.30 to see if i was right.(hopefully ime not) >)
Jon we said the same thing just in different ways
This is what hit us last night:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/12/us-eurozone-idUSTRE7953D520111012
Reading the Nation and Bangkok Post construction materials are s hard to come by. So there is a buy in there somewhere. Mine was Tasco
HMPRO
GLOBAL
CK
ITD
ones to check
HMPRO X/date is today so there might be a good buy there tomorrow.
Global is going down
been a long driving day for me but still followed the mkt as ubc in my truck.Hands up,i suggested wrong but at the end of morning session,i was absolutely correct.The indicaters changed at the break and there was and still is a massive amount of foreighn currency income against the bht ,which is devinately positive,
Cannot drive and post at the same time.I did have a sucessful day both ways but if had not put in my bids and sells too early ,could have been better.No choice and likewise tommorrow.Ray,we both had good reasons for our tips and thats all we can do.Look at the exchange rate right now and the mood is positive.Do remember,things can change pre-mkt.I use simple guides that give me clues pre-after and sometimes in between mkt.All in all,things are looking positive to me between now and years end ,of course the floods effects earnings for some companies but that to me is a perfect entrance to quality stock.I stand by all my staements on the blog and again i wish and hope we all have a turkey on the plate at xmas,if you are not a veggie of course,>) will post pre-mkt tommorrow if my indicaters are any differrent than positive.
RAY,DCC is a
better call to me,i mentined it many days ago but already gone up alot,so as TASCO but i dont trust that stock from past history,already i have ITD and it normally performs if you are patient,had around 5 years of losses (ITD) but i am very familiar with this stock and when it flys,it flys quickly.Try your luck but be prepared to wait a while,DCC is solid and no debt,about 5 per cent divvy and pays 4 times a year,ime in at a 6.5 per cent divvy and holding firmly.Good luck tommorrow everyone and dont bottle out .>) G NITE
Though I hadn't used the forum much this year, until recently, I'm pleased to see how it has grown and how much more information is now available. I joined the forum in Jan 2009; at that time the main posters were only scrut4u, seizhin and ueda. I owe these three a big thanks..I did very well that year. But, I also appreciate all the newer contributors which has increased the info, viewpoints and help available to all.
KGI is one securities firm I'm holding, due to the share price, low P/BV and _very_ high dividend. ASP has similar stats...anyone have a viewpoint or insight on ASP?
Ray and Jon, I am looking to enter the SET again tomorrow in the afternoon session, kinda cautious after the big drop of last month. What you would suggest me to start with? I think I will not touch banks at all, retail or tech looking good now? As well Jon, where you see the movements of the foreign currency against the baht, cause it seems to influence SET in direct way?
Meow perhaps you can consider buy on weakness SCC or 2nd layer SGP, KTC or HANA, ROJNA for medium term...happy hunting
AGE, EARTH I wont surprise if one of them hit 10baht next year
I will add CPF going the right direction for a buy now. A food company.
HMPRO I mentioned yesterday, should go down today it's x/date was yesterday.
TTW, down at the moment
I thinking trying to buy on dips is important, I don't think the roller coaster is over.
Jon has already said is a gambler, but has the knowledge for it. I'm not. so which ever style fits you is best for you
DTAC looks good price is coming into the 72 range
ADVANC same things except the price is going up
MEAOW,my suggestion would be defensive stocks such CPF and CPALL as whatever happens globally,everybody has to eat,and 7-11s with the wage increase,makes common scense and without it.take a look roundbyou.Both are highly traded stock,so buy on weakness,chip away and dont buy all at once.A bright future for both and reasonable divvy growth.Check anywhere for the exchange,i first log into my own bank where the exchange rate is right on the front page.CNBC also has it clocking around the clock.I noticed it last night on the tv,remember ,though,just like yesterday,things can change through the dayso need to take a peek after 1pm also.Remember that the echange rate does not guarantee the money is destined for the SET as it could be going into bonds but on the whole,it is a reliable guide,hope thats been of help
Ray,to me DTAC is a touch unsafe but a great trading stock intraday,i am still in at 71.75 but always get out on 2-3bht rise. i usualy hold a 1000 shares,and waiting on my 5th win in a row on thisone,could have had it and started again but alot of my time is driving cant always get it.Trades to early yeasterday but still wason a winner,alot of little make alot eventually.Most of my stock is firmly held.>)
Well I liked your DCC, but I'm tapped out at the moment. I went Advanc just because I felt more comfortable with it and it's currently paying a 10% dividend.
Tasco is the only pure growth stock I hold
aah KASET is flying, miss to catch...it's too high now :)
TVO same shareholder, dare to chase??
Seems like I missed the uptrend of the last few days, the question now if SET is going down only intraday or the correction is starting..
Best Guess is if the E.U. stays steady we will trade side ways.
I would wait and buy on the drops, still lots of things going on that can make the market go down
ime still positive as my indicaters pointed to foreighn buying,which they did,and they are now locked in,so they dont normally sell until they have healthy profits.didnt see much of the mkt today,only bits here and there this morning but seen the results.Ime still bullish for the last quarter.Think you spotted the clue to foreighn buying today pre-mkt as well right RAY ??
set: decision whether to buy or sell should be clearer by tomorrow
bearish signals today:
-there was a bearish engulfing pattern from the candle sticks
-the set is back under the 950 line, there could have been a false breakout.
bullish signals:
-foreigners are still buying
-the set pulled back after reaching the 25 day avg to the 5 day avg which is my stop
neutral signals:
-the uptrend line from the last 8 days was not broken, but it needs a strong opening of more than 1 % tomorrow or if might fail.
if above supports fail there is the 15 day avg at around 915 which could trigger a rebound
I'm heavy in SAT, and after seeing a picture of the flooded cars at the Honda factory...it'll be a while before SAT makes any significant upward movement. Scroll down pix:
http://www.theatlantic.com/infocus/2011/10/worst-flooding-in-decades-swamps-thailand/100168/
Anyone looking at ASP? Like KGI low book & high dividend.
No I came up with the same signals Zorro did, the problem with candlesticks is they tell you one day until pattern is developed. So I agree can go other way. Now here is what interests me, forieghner's were the only net buyers yesterday. Profit taking I don't know. spooked by thee floods? I really don't know.
Meow I would watch things closely. U.S. ended at a very small loss.
ahyones guess where its going today as indicaters are flat but we need to close above 950 at some stage over the next few days and wait and see the following day to see if it holds.
still gathering up SAT in small amounts,hope the floods are close to their peak.If foreighners keep buying in,we have got every chance and have been buyers most days in the last 10 if my data is correct.fingers crossed
Per Poems the short term support level is 925. we are at 933 1120 hours. Seems we are getting hit two ways the floods and a down grade of Spain, by the S&P.
Meow if it breaks 925, I would hold onto that cash, for later use. There are still good buys there a lot good buys now and the have been outlined already.
good buys or good byes ?
no volumes dont daytrade just top up if stock is in the red,thats my advice for today.maybe have a scense of direction after 2.30
Things like CPF GLobal and HMPRO are gaining not losing. When this is all over the pieces have to be picked up.
inflow of foreighn exchange ,pretty sure its the foreighners bringing it up,will know at 5.30,just got back on line,hope it can hold above 950
all in all a good day,SVI bought 3.02 closed 3.20 SAT bought at the bottom and foreighners buying again,positive and now we need to finish above 950 on Monday,locals got caught out again >)
set: after trading on low volume sideways in the morning session, the direction was clear during the afternoon.
should have been a buying signal.
the 25 day avg was again only touched at the end of the day.
the 5 day avg might cross the 25 avg tomorrow, unless it is a weak day.
poems points out a bullish divergence in the rsi.
the 950 horizontal resistance was reclaimed.
the bearish engulfing was countered by a white candle, which should be a bullish sign.
i am with the bulls.
U.S. closed up this morning I look fro a good day Monday.
Interesting I had to sign back into Google today. But then it asked for my phone number I didn't give it still posted
ive had that problem RAY a few times.
BULLISH for monday but if your not already in the mkt,dont get caught out as it is likely to open up high,wait for the profit taking to re-enter even if if its a few days off.Common scense needed,dont follow the white sheep,follow the black ones happy monday >)
5 card trick on DTAC,topped up CPALL
>)
I would be very careful on picks today, not much volume and we are showing a Doji, for the first day. As I said before one day tells you nothing. But this would be a indicator of change, in this case not a good one.
But, we are still on the positive side after 1430. I haven't really searched the news yet.
the volumes are pretty solid and could end at 30x which is par for the course.candlesticks both ways today RAY,nice big upside down one this morning,correct,selective stocks is where you want to today and i see some value in quality stock thats been lazy this morning.Still looking positive for foreighners buying today at the lunch break but will have to wait and see at 5.30 happy trading>)
Good news now we have a nice big candle stick and volumes are up. That is the last 30 Mins so I can only assume the EURO zone is doing OK haven't looked yet.
The DOJI was showing this morning, so we are seeing things turn in the afternoon again. It means change a good one this time. It looked just the opposite to me. So we probably got foreign buying going again.
I like it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Folks I would take a close look at what it takes to rebuild this mess from the floods Tasco is up 10% from two weeks ago.
There have been several mentioned, in this thread.
This seems to be the culprit LOL
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/17/us-markets-global-idUSTRE77L0AE20111017
TASCO in my oppinnion is way overbought and i would be getting out while the going is good,it will make around 3 per cent on top of profits whatever the damage according to my info and i would be buying the stocks that have been over sold,still calling SAT as one of them and collected again at 17.80,
You might be right RAY but i would not go near that stock as its good at lockibg you in.Your following the sheep arent you ??
Not hardly bought in when the SET was in the 800's. I got lots of room
Zorro, what's your resistance level? 985?
took nice profit on CPF, SCC tdy & followed JON w/ SAT & a bit PAE for fun
NEP, no more sandbag pls :) for daily player should avoid this one
Okay Jon I will bite, is there another asphalt company in Thailand I don't know about?
This time last year it was at 82 baht a share. So how is that being a sheeple?
Jon, Zorro when you are talking about SAT are you talking about day trading?
Hi RAY, i thought i would get a reaction >) Good luck with TASCO, all i am saying is some stocks have been over bought as the floods have been priced in already and I beleive TASCO is one of them,if me i would take profits and buy back when the sheep have stopped buying and not only do you get a profit but your shares back.
I used to have it years ago and dont like its habits (aq lot of stocks are creatures of habit).3 per cent on top of earnings is not a lot compared with the price increase.SAT,hell no day trading ime in for the medium long but i consider it very oversold has it has no flood damage (so far) so i just keep scooping up a few when it dips below 18 and 17.80 i bought today.Got rid of the dreaded DTAC for my 5th profit in 11 trading days (think 11)bought CPALL and MINT at the bottom of today ,so all in all a good day,over to you Ray >)
TASCO is the only listed company on the SET,i beleive but so what,ITD wins most of the bidding for government projects and its showed a loss for the last 5 years,thats where ime coming from,not to be trusted.
set : as i use straight lines and moving averages only, i see resistance at 1000-1010 which is the former horizontal support as well as a possible downresistance from the 1st of august peak.
support either the 5 day avg around 957 or the 25 avg around 953
i doubt the resistance will be broken unless the dow breaks above the sideway channel res. at 10650.
the set rebounded more than 10 %, rsi is climbng fast, in a couple of days should be wise to take some profits.
even if the a.m. resistance of the set is broken, the important 200 avg at 1040 has a wide range of influence.
opps, meant 11650 for the dow resistance
buy on weakness CPF & SCC again, good enough if can fall around 5% :)
agreed on CPF and SCC and i would add CPALL also, possible strong rebound at some time today but will update at lunch if i see any change
2 supports broken intraday, if there is no strong rebound the afternoon the set will drop to the 15 day avg at 920
we need to close firmly over 950,or correct 920 looking likely.so currency movements to give clues either,although inflow came in last night but very very slight outlow today,so far
evidence of the foreighners selling and retail buying at 3.15pm which is not good news today >(
wow my TASCO-w3 almost double now, too bad only bought 10k
just blindly guess EARTH or AGE will also fly again soon :) happy guessing
more positive than negative came today,1. foreighners,retail and institutions were buyers and proprietry was the seller,the mkt went down is the negative,2.that locks the foreighn money into the mkt,which is positive,3. the rebound came to some extent and most important the mkt did close firmly over 950 the biggest positive to methough,i dont daytrade as a rule but that rebound coming,i made a very handsome profit on CPALL,DCC,IVL and CPF ,all in all,positive,And now the DOW is the main key for tommorrow .Whart do you chart guys think ??How about switching that TASCO for TK Ray,at least its got a good divvi and its already done its locking in and looks cheap again,>)
What is that TASCO-w3 ? Why addition of -w3, how is different from the main one?
W-3 means Tasco issued warrants at some point, that you can sale or hold onto to buy more shares, hopefully at a better price.
Hammer on the charts means nothing except pay attention. Depends on how things go tomorrow. So I won't be watching charts as much as how the E.U. and States close. They close down I would say another down day. Up and that will take us back into the uptrend. I don't rely completely on charts it's just a part of it. One signal without support can't tell you much.
Not being a wise guy but I think I will wait for Tasco to turn down before I sale it.
Thanks for the suggestion
a bit like throwing a coin. set ended directly on the 25 day avg and a bit below the 5 day avg.
foreign buying not so convincing high.
would say 60% bears, 40% bulls
the dow just retracted from the horizontal resistnace, more downside there possible.
I agree, just finished reviewing the international and national news. Per the Bangkok Post 14000 factories flooded. None of the international papers picked that up there number are more like 3000 and 100's of thousands left unemployed. Either way not good news.
So we have that going on and the E.U. mess.
If we get a down market from the DOW ect. tomorrow I'm leaning more towards the bears. But we will see tomorrow
takes me all of 2 minutes to reveiw anything,although that 2 minutes might be 3 times a day .BUY on bad news ansd SELL on good and in a state of emergency,we have an advantage over the institutions,The Dow,however should make the differrence of tommorrows performance.If the foreighners are locked in,like today,that normally is positive as they usually sell for profits.
Correct,not much movement and i thought the foreighn selling would be slightly more than the buying today,Positive again,i will however except a good roller coaster like today,whichever way the dice rolls.A warrent is normally issued free to existing shareholders of a stock that normally requiresa capital increse and can be exercised that certain times of the month,so many times a year.Iouted my last warrents MINT3 and bought the stock much cheaper than the excercise price of bht13 but not til after i sold at 13.80,now back in between 10-10.30 and sold all my warrents.Do not for one minute think warrents are safe,as they all have a expirey date.
RAY, i am not trying to play games with you you but to the best of my abbillity trying to tell you what you may not want to hear.TASCO is unsafe and offers no divvy,come down from 80bht to 50 or so and its hot at the moment,that to me is when to wave bye bye and move on G>nite)
Jon never crossed my mind, I know your trying to help. When it turns from a up trend then I will sale. I'm retired so I have time and can check things much closer. With TASCO I"m not even doing a trailing loss, it turns I'm out of there.
One habit I got into in the first year was selling to early, trying to get out that habit. I could have had one great ride with Hana last year, sold to early. Demco on the other hand I played just a you did and made a good profit. It's been about a year since I got out of that one. With money in hand.
It's very early 0930 from what I can see around us. We should go up in the morning. Again it will be the 1430 opening to really watch. Nothing much seems to really have changed roller coaster.
Lets see what we can do together here. This is what I think is fairly accurate looking at 100 billion in clean up. From this a long term plan on water control.
It appears that Thailand will be borrowing to get this done, making the deficit spending larger then originally anticipated.
So what are the companies that we can take serious look at. In other words how do we follow the money. Before everyone drives the prices up.
Right now we are on the roller coaster is what I believe.
A couple of things:
I'm holding KGI and ASP. Both offer high dividends. Not worried abt KGI, but wonder what others think about the prospects of ASP??
Also have lots of SAT and considering Rojna. Yet, some foreign factories have expressed thoughts of moving out of Thailand, due to the flooding and the decades of gov't incompetency in failing to address the problem.
I doubt any factories will move in the near term, but may this be a future consideration?
Jon got the first downtrend signal on Tasco I'm out. Now I will wait to buy back. I managed to pick up a few extra baht. I checked the foreign activity thus far very early but, if it's an indication of things to come today. Doesn't look good right now.
Ok guys this is very early so things can change but I'm seeing another down trend signal. The way I will play this is to low bid for accumulation on my dividend stocks.
Meow there are some keys to this. Bid early it takes the then in line with the time they are submitted.
Bid below the bid the bid price. You get them and you get a good price. If you don't get your price, you have not lost a thing and tomorrow is another day.
This can turn in a heart beat. But as a norm we should be seeing the market going up.
Volumes thus far are very low.
ime with you Ray,i saw negative last night,even though the DOW went up,as i post we are about even par.Today,i sold 3 stocks in the green and hope to pick them back up in the red as so far preditions are right.Foreighn cash left Thailand and normally indicates they will be selling today,nifty profits this morning.As you say RAY,things can change at the halfway house.I normally dont show my hands when ime buying or selling and trade at mkt price,showing your hands plays right into the wrong hands of your broker.We all have our own methods (apart from after mkt).I hope TASCO goes down to hell for you RAY and you can pick it up again.Me,would never touch that stock,a long with a few more that i am familiar with.They never really dragged themselves out from the 97 crisis and should not even be trading TIT.
Happy trading
sold tasco-w3 12baht :)
interest to read about government gonna invest more on water management system...you can consider TTW, good stock good divident for medium long term.
There were conflicting signals this morning. Market around us up, dollar was up last night down this morning. Those should have been for a up day. But, the volumes are just not there yet.
I was tying to give Meow a helping hand problem is I don't really know what she needs help with. Just tried a down and dirty bid on MCOT wouldn't go through. So things may be very tight today
cut off SAT, perhaps reenter again later
I already hold that one and it's in buy territory bid it yesterday at 4.86 didn't get it so I'm trying again today.
Also hold EASTW but it's a bit expensive right now.
Ratch may get down to buy territory again another I hold.
Anyone gave any thought to CK?
Last update for the morning Foreigners appear to be net sellers at the moment 12.25 hrs
I will see if I can get into of those today: CPF, IVL, TASCO, HMPRO, HEMRAJ for short term trading, bu the dollar is up and i am not sure how low the SET will fall further...
set: as it usually happens when the dow is up about 1 % the set opens high and loses steam.
fell below 5 and 25 avg.
if we get the usual afternoon sell-off we could see 935 again today or tomorrow were a horizontal short term support lies.
this suppport is the neckline of an head and shoulder formation that is now at the end of the uptrend that started 11 trading days ago.
target of the formation would be around 897 once the 935 neckline is taken out.
we are looking set for a rebound this afternoon and i think the volumes will pick up >) still picking up SAT,not scared of that one,solid company,sure have its earnings for the year revised but thats more than priced into the mkt.lets see,dont think much more downside risk to it.
REBOUND
CK ? how about TK
Holding KGI; high dividend & doing okay. ASP also a securities company w/ high dividend. Thoughts on ASP?
Was heavy in SAT at 18, sold 1/3 of the stock today. Maybe buy more if it continues it's decline.
Very low volume, it cant be good IMHO.
Meow it depends on if your buying or selling.
When looking at the other data around us, this appears to be coming from the flood news.
So far the down trend is holding
Nothing wrong with that Jon, I'm just trying to find a Construction company that may benefit from the repairs and ongoing water management system.
With things the way they are that is a tall order.
Checked the foreign activity, the only thing I found at 1515 hours was selling.
I upped one bid on TTW, the rest I'm holding to my original bids.
Tomorrow could be a much different day for that matter might change in the next hour who knows. But ut doesn't look like it.
At this point we have a confirmed down trend in the Candle Sticks, if that holds I think I will have another bidding day tomorrow
Ok SET is a lost cause today, can even signal a downtrend. I just read that piece of news: "SET adds new listed securities of "PTTGC" to begin trading on Oct 21, 2011". What can we do with that? Any opportunity?
There are good buys in the SET about known companies.
Meow you want to buy in down trends and I doubt anyone can tell you what the bottom is.
The best way to hedge your bet is to bid low on High dividend stocks.
This could all change tomorrow.
I don't know that, but the indication to me right now is another down day. That being said bargain hunters may be out in droves.
I picked up two good stocks today on bids so far.
There is opportunity everywhere right now.
Nothing abnormal, going on at all.
Reread some of Jon's entries buy low sale high. You can't buy low if you don't have downtrends.
hands up,I was WRONG, saw at the interval that dollars were coming back in,which they was,got the morning right but as a result of my hunches,bought back too early and now the proud owner of another 200k worth of 7-11s and IVL,TISCO,I never sell a stock til it wins,especially if its quality,hope you guys got it right .)
Contruction,urm,DCC,seems to hold up and weather the storm,just like it did to day,apparrantly no debt and around 5 per cent divvy,pays 4 times a year,sold some in the morning and bought back pm a touch cheaper.ITD,as got a lot of contracts and the present government suits this stock but its a tricky one to catch right,remember years ago when i held it at 40bht,rode me up to 74bht,sold it and then went over 100bht,so ime happy with that and will need to show profit soon.I chip away like always on dips and yes guys bought somemore SAT,I dont care how long i have to wait,i act on myhunches and beleifs
MEOW,i suggest you dont jump into any stock with all guns blasing and i will still suggest CPF and CPALL as they are defensive stock as everyone of us has to eat and both stock has always done me proud and still is>)
I was at least right with the foreighn buying >0) good sighn but doesntalways mean the mkt is going up but is positive that they are still buying in and dont normally leave empty handed,my guess is there will be a strong rally butnot calling when
gradually collecting CPF & MAKRO again
TIPCO high vol today, mother company of TASCO & their juicy products are pretty successful in region now so they might expect a nice profit ahead however beware it's also very tricky one...big player can turn table upside down :)
I have been following those few stocks today in afternoon: CPALL surprisingly crashed and didnt go back up at all, HMPRO was lazy and went down, i think it will take some time before it rallies again, CPF and HEMRAJ holding well,Tasco seems out of steam to hold and gain, IVL is speculative same last few days, up and down intraday, but I think is the best of all I mentioned here.The day ended down and i think tomorrow gonna stay down as well, at least in the first half. Correct me if i am wrong in my observations.
Ya the tough part is finding a heavy Construction stock, that isn't upside down in some way. I think the only way to play them as a trade not investment.
ITD does huge projects and I'm sure they will get some of the c action. problem is when they are done they will just owe more LOL
CK does have a small dividend.
Meow I'm going to give you what I hold. now that being said I researched them for my needs you do your own research before you do anything.
ADVANC
MCOT
EASTW
TTW
PRANDA
MODERN
Now those are good dividend stocks by my measure. Remember if your an investor it's not what you make today it's a year from now that counts. You could of bought them cheaper today then yesterday.
So far this year I have made 40K in dividends and I still have six months to go in this investing year.
If you reinvest Dividends you will be compounding your holdings over the years that will add up to a good hunk of change.
Jon gave you very good suggestions. Jon gave me good information I used it to time my sale
I have one question for you?
Are you a trader or investor?
Knowing that is key to knowing how to approach the market.
Right now there is blood in the streets, that means buy time. I know you don't have much time but, you have got to study and learn we all did.
Look the ones I gave you on the SET it's available 24 hours a day.
Look at the current price see what it has been selling got in the past.
Go into the financials look at the P/E under ten is good.
Look at the current dividend percentage, try for something above five% it will also give the dividends it paid in the past. See if they have been paying all along.
look at the current years revenues, most everything is done from last year.
Go this years financials look at the total liabilities and the amount held buy current share holders. Divide that into the liabiltties. You want number under one you won't get that every time, But, try to stay close to one.
Next do a google search in the company name find out what they do. Is it something that people will buy again and again.
That is basically what I do. I'm looking for ones that I can depend on year after year for my core stocks.
When I feel frisky I will take on something like TASCO. But, that a trade not an investment.
The bottom line is no one will take better care of your money then you do. Sometimes you will make mistakes everyone does, trick is getting more right then wrong,
One last thing learn to do this yourself never take someone else thoughts and that includes me.
Lots of good advice out there and bad. after you have went though this drilll a few times you can check out a company very quickly. Then you can feel confident in your own choice.
You know about setting stop losses and trailing losses. As I recall you work, check your stocks at lunch time you think you need to sale. Set your price and put them up for sale. I already explained the bidding process this morning. I wasn't telling you anything I didn't do myself.
I bid MCOT at 25, the lowest it would let me. in brief period of time I got it and it went right back up to 25.50.
I bid five stocks today I got two at good prices. What about the other three didn't cost me a thing and I will bid them again tomorrow
What did I miss guys ?
Tomorrow I would think a good buy day again. The goal position yourself for when it goes back up.
I'm trying my best to help you. But, I don't know what you need. You want to buy when its down not after it's up.
Please try the exercise see you can see what I did in them. Modern is a weird one furniture people are going to need that when it's over.
Pranda it will go as gold does but with a 19% dividend.
Thank you for your post Ray, its all make sense, however i am trader and not investor, cant hold stocks for dividends and plan few months ahead. I want to buy and sell for profit ASAP.
Now I understand I don't know how to do that.
MEAOW,trading is tricky even though i am one but my main holdings are for medium to long term growth with rising divvys.Ileave about 300k as play money,(trading),i am holding more play money right now,as i got the morning perfectly correct but bought back to early pm.So, simple,i dont sell,i made a fair profit yesterday and lowered a few averages on my core investments,today,i made a measly bht560 and lowered and highered some of my averages.I hold a lot of stock,so i can use any of it any time to further play with.I normally play with stock i have.I rarely day trade but did today and yesterday and came out good BUT i do not reccommend you to even attemp day trading,Intra day,if yyou like.I have seen so many addicted day traders loose many many millions of bht.If you want to trade,make sure that they are very highly traded shares in the top twenty on volumes etc.There are some good stock out there and the 2 i keep putting your way CPF and CPALL are 2 of the highest traded shares everyday and are habit forming,today,you are right,CPALL didnt do its usual and CPF did not go as high as i thought it might this morning,i wanted to sell some,then buy them back,both worked for me yesterday but not to be today.What i am trying to get through to you ,is,so what,i have a fist full of quality stock that will go up again.I had CPF at 3 bht in 2005,now look where it is.Dont panic sell on quality,just hold tight.
Trading is really not easy for any of us but the experience and knowing the habits of stocks helps us plus other hidden guides out there.So if you are or want to be a trader,then dont show your hands to the dirty dealers called your stk brokers,trade at mkt price.RAY i beleive was advising you for the longer term buying in,right RAY ?
Buy and sell for profits,erm,that makes scense but there are more losers than winners in our category retail/local,if you are seeking asap and you lack experience,you have 2 chances slim chance and no chance,if you are not prepared to be patient and you have little experience,dont even think about it,unless of course,you have a never ending pocket.Look further than your nose and hey,you might get lucky.Sorry for being so blunt but thats the way it is.None of us are bullet proof.(except of course the one hit wonder a few weeks back who posted ????)if you beleive that,you beleive anything.Be careful MEOW
Meow you have very good mentors here
For short term player, use your instinct following tech chart, trends, be discipline & trade wisely. For medium-long, Ray had explained earlier
Honestly on my first days of trading I made some 25-30K baht, but it was luck and sure I lost 5 times that amount in the big slump of Aug/Sep cause I didnt use stops. But I learning everyday and consider its a price to become a trader..:-) They say you will win after you will know all the ways to lose first..But I am super cautious now as you see, sitting on my cash and waiting for right moment to re-enter.
Jon was right. I was giving you a medium term look. That does not mean if a stock tops out I won't sale. But, just like Jon I have core stocks I don't sale.
Ok looking back you missed the bottom, they call it catching a falling knife for a reason.
If your position is to be a trader only, you have a lot higher risk appetite then I do. I believe you have Kim Eng. If you you look at the technicals there. For the SET in just about any form you want.
It's a great high to hit right. but even worse low when things don't work out. Try the approach I laid out for you. Just because they pay dividends doesn't mean they don't grow as well. Lots of things are dirt cheap right now.
This is how I see things right now France and Germany have not came to an agreement, will they by this weekend who knows.
Thailand is flooded that is a short term thing. There will be huge amounts of money being spent by the Government eventually beyond what they had already committed to.
So my approach is to invest, with caution using the dividends as a back up. No one says you have to wait months for a dividend. Tluxe I believe has an x/date next week. If you can steal right now you stand a good chance of doing OK. Down side is as a norm stocks drop after the x/date. But you might miss that if you can steal right now.
I would not try trading right now. But, that's me
Last time went own a lot and gained back a 100 points somewhere Around 800. (Rough Figures)
To do what your trying to do charts are just a part of it, Paying very close attention the news is equally important.
Good luck
My guess looking at the charts markets around us and the international news, we are continuing in the down trend. As always things can change in a heat beat. But I'm sitting bids for a downtrend.
Ok here is the big question I'm pondering. I wonder if we will hit another recession world wide. That seems like a good possibility if the E.U. can't get a united approach together.
The E.U. finished up yesterday. The Us market was up when I went to sleep. I woke up this morning a loss. The E.U announcement was made after their market close.
To add insult to injury Gietner is talking about the U/S. injecting funds into the E.U if they come to an agreement. Apparently that happened in 2008 as well. That being said the States have their own problems it's not a in a position to loan someone money for a cup of Coffee.
So to me things are really shaky I believe even with the problem we have here we are in the best place to ride this out. So I think we need to be prepared to do bottom fishing where ever that is going to end up being.
We hit around 800 last time any thoughts on where we might be going?
What approach are you guys looking at?
Watch TASCO for whatever reason it's on a uptrend. Will it last darned if I know
Advanc is headed for buy territory again
Zorro what is the next support level, Philipps shows it a 935-925 and we broke through that already
set: the 15 day avg at 920 didn't act as a support, set just went through, but any rebound might stall there.
the target of the h&s formation of 897 can be reached soon. will it be a buying level or is the set heading for 800?
looks like the knife is falling again.
Sure does I will try my best to load up with ADVANC
stuck between a rock and a hard place is where we are now,toss of a coin if we are in a bear mkt,i still call 750,if a bull,cant answer that.just riding this one out today and doubtful i will make a trade ,good look guys and gals >)
Really hard to figure A low bid today. Not knowing what tomorrow is going to bring. Frankly I don't think we will have a clear picture till after the weekend.
Floods are not bothering me much. Factories should be back on line in a few months.
Sorry Meow I know not good news for you. I'm debating on which construction company on a trade basis.
jon, i do not think we will see 750 in the near term the previous low during trading was around 840 and i think we could see that again ,
cheers
sam
Ok did a bid on Advanc at 123.00 60% sale off right now. I may lower it more this afternoon.
Forecasts of 600, 750...??
Last Monday, Kim Eng forecast 840.
Anybody's guess. Scary times!
I took a mild beating on SAT; maybe time to pull back and wait?
JON - have you looked at gold , 1615 right now. next week expected to fall more .
sam
Ok since I put it out there a word of caution on Tasco Candle stick with wicks on both ends what that means is it is higher then at the open. But volumes are very low.
It's holding it's own at 12:26 But it can go either way at 1430 open. Watch it very closely and I would limit myself to small bites. Till you see what happens.
Since I could not come up with a construction company I called Kim Eng on it. They anticipate a uptrend at the end of the flooding.
I'm just not coming up with anything any better in heavy construction. As Jon suggested I picked up profit from the last go around so ,my risk is not as high as buying in at this point
Tluxe I was off on the dividend date batting a 1000 today
Sea of red today in SET, but TASCO and CPF holding ground, interesting..
I think we will see some small rebound in afternoon session from -3% to round -2%, and IVL will go higher. Let see if I learned something from the last few days on SET behavior.
Between the two I would go with CPF, that's food people are going to eat.
The French And Germans are meeting again today, that could turn things tomorrow. This time their markets are eating it and they tend to pay more attention when that happens LOL
Turn around this afternoon I don't think so. lets hope I'm wrong
Guys Check EASTW and TTW looking like good buys right now.
They are down to their lows.
Well things are turning up a bit, good news
An interesting twist a infrastructure fund listed on the SET, at least they are thinking about it.
http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/local/262325/infratrusture-fund-planned
You know sometimes we can be overwhelmed I just checked my ledger on 10-7 we were at 909 on the SET looks like we will finish the day around 910.
So not as bad as I was seeing it.
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