01 August 2011

Stocks discussion No.8 -2011

Welcome to Stocks discussion No.8 -2011
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(click chart to enlarge!  5-year-monthly chart of LL)
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130 Comments:

At Monday, August 01, 2011 4:49:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.8 - 2011". Please post your questions or stock picks here.

 
At Monday, August 01, 2011 9:58:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Anyone having any guesses where the 3-G fiasco is going. I hold DTAC now and it's doing OK?

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 10:50:00 AM , Blogger FreestyleTsang said...

Hey guys/gals,
Glad to see this Thai stocks blog.
Am a first timer here but have been investing in Thai stocks for 5 years already.
I just sold off my SPALI & MCOT.
I am holding now KBANK & HEMRAJ.

What do you think?

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 2:22:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

dtac is now at a resistance, but long term still ok. look at bartons chart here:
http://www.asiachart.com/thaistocks.html

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 2:23:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well volumes turned on it I took my trailing loss and got at a 12% gain. Moved into Advanc I think in the end that is the winner.

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 4:29:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

TWZ: Looks like it broke though the previous resistance. Still waiting for more to come.

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 4:54:00 PM , Blogger ueda said...

TWZ also bought some few days ago..good call guys

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 5:11:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

TWZ: seem boiling. Enjoy!

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 5:15:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

To Freestyle trader,

Welcome to this blog.

HEMRAJ and KBANK are both bullish. Keep moving up your "lock profit Point" and enjoy!

 
At Tuesday, August 02, 2011 5:41:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Is it a bit late on HEMRAJ I have been watching it and a bit timid about pulling the trigger this late in the game?

 
At Wednesday, August 03, 2011 10:38:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

To rayfisher,

HEMRAJ: Probably a bit late.

 
At Wednesday, August 03, 2011 10:39:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

To rayfisher,

TWZ: not late. I blindly guess that it still has great protential.

 
At Thursday, August 04, 2011 10:36:00 AM , Blogger Seizhin said...

TWZ: Main profit comes from the AIS related income, however, with the current government in position........ We may see something interesting. :)

 
At Thursday, August 04, 2011 5:02:00 PM , Blogger ueda said...

switch NEP to MPIC

MBAX slow but sure :)

 
At Friday, August 05, 2011 11:58:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well we are getting hammered today, like the rest of the world. any ideas what the resistance level will be on the SET?

1200 hours currently at 1091.

I took defensive moves and will be looking at buy backs

 
At Friday, August 05, 2011 4:45:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Cancel the last posting the resistance point was 1086 hindsight 20/20 LOL

 
At Friday, August 05, 2011 10:13:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

LL: Every dog has its day!

 
At Saturday, August 06, 2011 11:38:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

DOG LOL

Well the U.S. was downgraded by the S&P today to AA+

So how is that going to effect the SET?

Dollar is going to drop for sure, will Thailand continue to chase it?

My thoughts if it does effect anything to the negative I believe short lived and it will turn to a positive.

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 12:20:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

set rebounded on friday from a line that runs parallel in the center of the channel from this years chart. the channel is also drawn in bartons chart.
75 day avg is also not far away.
will it hold?
the last candlestick is a hammer and is bullish.

what troubles me is the heavy selling of the foreigners since a while. that is why i keep cash and go back to day trading (luckily sold almost everything after the set index retreated from the channel resistance.

lets see if the foreigners are buying again on monday and if the set is strong. otherwise we will see the channelsupport around 1020.

or even less.

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 3:43:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

TYM: still cooking.

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 3:45:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

CSP: when will it wake up and rally? The major share holders have been so patient!

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 3:52:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

LL: I added the 5-year-monthly chart of LL. Let's time tell and Good luck!

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 12:04:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Graft, my thoughts foreign investors in looking at the SET this morning foreigners were net sellers. Individual investors were net buyers, which must have eased the s SET back up in the afternoon.

I will approach it all with a wait and see only one stocks doesn't pay a dividend so it adds a bit of a buffer.

TWZ could still be one to watch closely, it eased back to where I originally purchased it. I had already taken profits.

 
At Sunday, August 07, 2011 6:48:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

As a preview he middle east market dropped 5% on the open today.

any thoughts of selling on the open and buying on the fall?

 
At Monday, August 08, 2011 9:27:00 AM , Blogger ueda said...

once the dust is settled, more capital inflow will come to asia perhaps SET also is on their radar even I more bullish on china, india or indonesia.

If fall below 1000, defenitely I will buy big banks which is far from its peak.

Agreed LL, guess NEP or PAE still worth to try

 
At Tuesday, August 09, 2011 4:34:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Oil at these levels.

Anyone got an idea on a oil stock one heck of a lot less expensive then PTT?

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 1:43:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

on 10/8 or 11/8 should be buying time for a short rebound.
rsi is approaching the oversold area from where the set usually rebounds and the channel support is near at 1023.
in the usa the fed meeting didn't spark buying so the dow might end 1 or 2 % down again.
but be careful: foreigners are selling and phillip securities are now advising to sell (finally after 10% drop, lol) as the longterm rising support at 1050 was broken. could be repaired after a rebound, let's see.

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 9:48:00 AM , Blogger Unknown said...

Hi guys,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

Any thoughts on BTS?

The new extension to Bang Na opens this week - 10% more passengers expected. Company fundamentals appear OK - the SkyTrain is vital to Bangkok and a cash cow. Shares are cheap.

This is a case of a good company, but a poor growth stock choice?

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 11:54:00 AM , Blogger Mascu said...

yea i bought some today 10/8 seems like a minor rebound, and most regionals are up as well.

for energy stocks banpu was very attractive yesterday about 19.66% earnings to price and estimated dividend for this year at 5.9%. PTT currently at about 15.31% earnings to price and estimated dividend for this year 5.36%

i think most banks are overpriced right now... KBANK, as a value investor i would only consider buying if it's below 90. Estimated dividend this year 2.65% at current price of 127

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 12:02:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Never could really trust the brokers. When it's high, they started telling people to buy, and vice versa.
But their research is good for having an idea how a company is doing :D

banpu was very attractive yesterday for a value investor as a growth and dividend stock. about 6% dividend this year

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 2:35:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

Any thoughts on BIGC ??

It was at 108 on 20/7 - up to a high of 120 on 4/8.

Now down around 124.

Did it peak at 130 - or still room to up?

 
At Wednesday, August 10, 2011 10:07:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

banpu: be careful as the stock just broke a triangle support around 690. have a look again at 640-650 but seeing a longterm chart i have the feeling it will go much lower as the 200 avg is broken

bts: welcome to the blog, mr. longtime lurker. hope you will post more often, even if they are just questions.
looking at the chart there is a 1 year downchannel with support around 0.6.
i don't give much about fundamentals, i prefer trends and technical analysis.

for the set:
todays rebound was a bit too early and i am still waiting for the area of 1020 or foreign buying. the dow had a sucker rally, short covering or whatever yesterday, today it is down again almost 4% right now.
will we see a bearmarket similar to 2008 and the dow at 7000?

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 12:25:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

bigc: a multiple year chart shows the sharp rally it did recently. volume is lower than end of last years peak, i think it is good to sell or stay away. 90 should be a good price to get in where the last peak and strong resistance was and the 200 avg will be soon there as well.

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 9:38:00 AM , Blogger Mascu said...

Yea it was a sucker rally haha, and low volume too, so wasn't so impressive.

Thanks Zorro, for the input, greatly appreciate it.

And I'll be more cautious with banpu.

Do any of you guys buy property stocks? The technical isn't all that great, but dividend is substantially higher like 8-11%. but the problem is, as i checked, 5 years of financial data, the dividends are roughly the same, they dont increase. That's scary in my opinion, considering the yearly inflation while your return on investment is getting smaller and smaller. Any thoughts if it's a good investment tool? Or a bad choice.

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 10:05:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

At this juncture I'm staying with high dividends stock with good dividends. The mess yesterday was triggered by the French banks " COULD" have a problem.

That was enough to drive the markets down.

everyone is running scared, it's going to be buyers market. But with the roller coaster I am having a very difficult time finding the bottom.

At this point I'm not selling but, I'm not buying either.

My apologies I'm not good at getting mt thoughts down in short messages.

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 10:19:00 AM , Blogger Unknown said...

MAascu,

Thanks for info. You think most banks are overpriced at the moment. Any more info?

Analysts (I know, I know - they can't be trusted) at Kim Eng and KGI rate SCB, KBANK and BBL as 'outperform'.

KBANK is rated by those 2 firms rate at fair price between 165-169 with SCB at 145 and BBL at 224

I don't doubt you, but I'm a bit of a newbie. Any more info on the health of the Thai banks you can share?

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 2:23:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

My comment was to U.S. banks.

But to answer your questions yes are solid at the moment. Understand I'm a newbie as well.

What is important I believe to understand is the world in inner connected. You can judge this markets reaction for the most part by what the E.U. and the states do.

Banks are to expensive for my taste, mid caps and the mai are what I look at.

I would disagree about Kim Eng, every time I have contacted them on a stock I was thinking about I have been told not to buy and why with a simple phone call. You can actually talk to the person assigned to the stock.

The rest of them I know nothing about. I don't follow kim Engs' e-mails beyond doing more research

 
At Thursday, August 11, 2011 9:16:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Hello Unknown.

If you must have a stock in the banking sector, your best bet is KBANK. I have done all my research skim through every single financial statements and rate each business before I even consider buying stocks. Let me pull out some info for you from my documents. I am a value investor as well as a technical speculator. Ok first off, in 5 years range. The revenue of KBANK has increased 83% in 5 years with average 16% per year. BBL on the other hand has decreased -4% in 5 years time. It's a dying bank, yes it's the biggest but it's going nowhere. Walk into one, everything is old, low technology, staffs are unprofessional, and etc. I can confidently say this, in 10 years, kbank will be the best and biggest bank in the industry. Unknown, for your information Kbank and SCB only. They are both still growing banks and there's a reason, but SCB is half as fast as kbank. Do consider the small banks as well, tisco and tcap. They are less expensive at 4-6% dividend.
But like rayfisher said banks are overpriced, it's promoting everywhere, ALL brokers will recommend them = everyone buys = too high price yet people still buy them. As of current time, dividends for big cap banks are 2.5-3.5%. Kbank the price i would buy at is 90 or below, which gives me 3.7% and in 5 years that becomes 6-7%+.

The thing about thai stock markets is that crowd behavior is an issue. They like to go with the crowd, and often times the stock gets too expensive and merely useless, yet they still promote it, and guess what? People still buy them. For us, what we have to do is find those gems, companies that are undervalued, YET has excellent growth and high dividends 6-8%.

Right now with all the recession worries all around, im sticking with my recession immune MAKRO :D About 4.4% dividend at current prices.

 
At Friday, August 12, 2011 1:32:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

Mascu,

Many many thanks for that. Much appreciated. Very informative.

I owe you a pint or two !!

MAKRO back in March at 138 would have been a good buy - even in May at 160.

But do you think at 234 do you still think is room to grow ??

Thanks again for the info.

 
At Sunday, August 14, 2011 11:17:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Anyone know anything about INTUCH

It's owned by the Shin Corporation pays a 17% dividend. Priced at 39.25

Far below ADVANC

Question is will this be their 3-G operation

 
At Sunday, August 14, 2011 6:32:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

O.O
INTUCH, equity dropped by half in 5 years. Revenue unchanged through the years. Good profit margins though... too good if you ask me. fishy?
But rayfisher, the fair dividend I would have to say is 7-9%. And their payout is roughly 100% or more of their net profit yearly. The "more" part wonders me as well. That 17% i believe is from the one time payout of Advanc's dividend that generates excess cash, wont happen regularly though :D Also keep in note 07 was their hardest year, making net profit at 15% of the normal years. Which means you can expect a dividend of 1.2% if this year or the next a recession does occur. It is about time... 2007+5 years = roughly 2011 2012, may happen soon.
Scroll over to advanc's page, and you can see that it was pretty much immune in 2007 and currently gives a dividend of 7% at current price. Personally I would go with advanc over intuch, but choice is yours.

 
At Monday, August 15, 2011 2:38:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

To Mascu,

Please post your email (which will not show here) and we can send you an invitation to your email. You just accept the invitation and then you become one of the contributors here.

 
At Monday, August 15, 2011 6:10:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Thanks for the heads up Mascu

 
At Monday, August 15, 2011 9:51:00 AM , Blogger dee said...

Hey guys, I don't post often and they're mostly questions anyway because I'm not very bright when it comes to stocks...but nice to see this blog picking up. Keep up the good work, and thanks for all of your input.

 
At Monday, August 15, 2011 3:06:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Set seems to be gaining without foreign investors What is the flavor of the week in the Mai for growth?

 
At Monday, August 15, 2011 5:24:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Zorro,
your right haha on banpu.
The 2nd quarter earnings is just ridiculous. 1/3 of what it did in 1st quarter. I'll be selling mine at the end of this week's rally. My new buy price for it would be 600. That's the problem with rallies, all stocks go up regardless of the financial statements. Some sorry guy will be buying my shares :D
PTT is right on track and going strong.

Oh and Unknown, MAKRO is one of those stocks you never have the chance to buy. it just keeps going. Back when it was 180, I told myself I would buy more, once it drops even a tiny bit. Months past, 200..... 220...... 240....
It's not volatile. It's what I would like to call a stable haven stock for dividend and growth. You can sleep well at night. Wouldn't surprise me next year it would be 270 then 300+. But do leave it as a small percentage of your portfolio as it is quite boring and slow. I buy it as an alternative for my timed deposits.

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:03:00 AM , Blogger Unknown said...

Hello all,

CNBC had a segment on TVO today - and they were very bullish on the stock.

Ironically, I have been monitoring it for a while - but it never seems that active to me.

It has a huge market share - but is there something I'm missing ??

Thoughts on TVO ??

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:42:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Demco a mess at the moment is it a buy under 4?

Things seem to be hinging on the Governments now plan. They said the massive projects will be put on hold while the money will go to poorer regions.

That is not really clear yet

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 1:15:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

TVO Palm Oil Shortage, their is an article in the Nation about it. You have to do a search in the business section

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 3:43:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

TVO, dissapointing 2nd quarter results due to oversupply of soy bean in the market resulting in the lack of pricing power. Volume of sales up but price is low.

From phatra research.

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 5:06:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

Thanks guys - much appreciated.

Palm oil shortage has been talked about for much of the year - which is why I have been tracking it - but didn't see any incentive to buy.

I just wanted to double check why analyst was on CNBC suggested an 'outperform' buy. Only reason given on-air was a shortage and that TVO had a huge (67% I think) share of the market - and not much competition.

Again, just wanted to bounce it off you guys to see if there was some future movement I had missed the signs of.

 
At Tuesday, August 16, 2011 11:37:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

BANPU to increase capacity from 42M tonnes to 54M tonnes. Estimated profit is expected to increase by 20% this year.

KK suggested Target Price at 920 baht.

 
At Wednesday, August 17, 2011 2:44:00 PM , Blogger ueda said...

what do u think AS? recently they expanded to indonesia market &

current px just 10% from IPO 11baht so I guess more upside ahead

 
At Wednesday, August 17, 2011 5:24:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Good new foreigners were net buyers today.

 
At Wednesday, August 17, 2011 8:47:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Haha rayrisher.
That's always a good sign isn't it. Somehow they are the ones who makes things happen.

wow AS, first gaming stock i've seen. Solid company over the years, no changes, 100% dividend payout. 7-7.5% divs this year. Where did you get the news about their expansion? Is it the 200 million plan for indonesia and vietnam office?

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 8:18:00 AM , Blogger ueda said...

Hi Mascu, I read on Indonesia newspaper wks ago..perhaps they're on low profile mode ;)

Blindly guess it will reach 15 in coming mth...

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 10:19:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Ok this is an odd play and one I really don't recommend because it can backfire.

I'm trying to sale 900 shares of advanc at 116

Take the proceeds from that buy intuch which is falling before it's X/date. That should add another 5K to my dividends.

Already got the dividends from advanc X/date on intuch is the 26th.

Why is this dangerous, you will only make money if Intuch recovers after the X/date.

I've done it before sometimes it works sometimes it doesn't

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 10:29:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Missed the X/Date by one day it's today that to close for comfort so I cancelled. Also advanc is retreating. So the number just were not right.

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 10:45:00 AM , Blogger dee said...

TWZ posted disappointing results early this week. Any idea if the recent rally (and return with low volume) was just a punt, or if it is still worth an interest?

I've also been tracking CSP since it was recommended here several times over the past couple of years as a sleeper controlled by one very patient family. It's been parked between 2.10 and 2.20 over this period even though SET has increased by 50%, aside from a brief small rally last year on rumours that a Chinese firm was interested in it. I bought a small batch at 2.10-2.12...is it worth taking more seriously?

tia

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 10:56:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Hana can you chart guys help me out here. I saw in the charts it was due to go up, last week. But, I can't find any fundamentals to support it's movement.

Great company low debt ratio and good dividends.

Microchips as products. I just don't get it.

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 11:40:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

net buying of foreigners needs to be confirmed as there was a big lot trade yesterday that could give a wrong picture.
today again big lot intuch.


hana: seemed to have had a peak/ double top in mid and end 2010 and is now in a slow downtrend channel since beginning of the year.
broke the important 200 avg which is near a former horizontal support of around 25.
the rebound since 9th of august is because of the low rsi, i doubt it will go back above 25.
all in all looks bearish.

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 11:58:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

intuch: according to my calender xd is on 22nd !
???

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 1:26:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

cgd: still the downresistance from november 2010 is holding it down.
a buy on a breakout could be too late as the 200 avg and former horiz. support at 0.59 is looming.
collecting near 0.4 (low of 2010) should be worth a try but use a stop there as well as the low of 2009 is much lower

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 3:10:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

set: seems to bounce back from the 10 and 25 avgat 1101 and the rising support of the last 6 days seems to break.
i guess we will see now a few weak days

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 3:12:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

ooops, meant 15 and 25 avg, not 10 and 25

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 4:18:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

AS: Personally done a research once when the company was on IPO a few years back.
I have not researching AS ever since I have the feeling that I dont like how the company runs their customer service.

x_x Sorry cant answer.

INTUCH: The biggest share holder are selling stocks out, price range are 35-38 baht, which is cheaper than the current price. They're selling about 3-6% of the total stock they hold so... expect price to drop.

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 5:02:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Ok the numbers came together, for the dividends sold 900 shares of advanc picked up 3400 shares on Intuch should get an additional dividend of 5542 baht.

This is a short trade so we will see what happens. I'll post the results. I may have to wait till we break 1100.

The I will move in the growth stocks with dividends.

How do you guys spot your companies on the Mai?

Kem Eng has a way to check volumes for a day. might be an idea I don't know

 
At Thursday, August 18, 2011 6:00:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

I think what is going on is Intuch is getting witin the 51% Thai owner requirement. ?

In any event I have enough of a margin to come out on this.

 
At Friday, August 19, 2011 11:47:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

KAMART: keeps moving up. Now up 340% since recommended 15 June 2011. Keep moving up your LPP. Enjoy!

 
At Friday, August 19, 2011 11:48:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

TWZ: still cooking! Good luck!

 
At Saturday, August 20, 2011 11:04:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Got lucky Intuch went up.

Where is the next resistance point on TWZ?

This one is a tough question, for our chartist. Where is the bottom of the SET.

Great call on Kmart wish I had found the Blog sooner

 
At Sunday, August 21, 2011 3:46:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

I currently hold CPF Dividend of 3.31%. Considering the cost that seems low to me.

What are some other food companies I could do some research on?

I try to find solid companies with a dividend above 5%

Is there is way to search a specific class of stocks on he SET?

 
At Sunday, August 21, 2011 4:32:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well I did find one that looked good on paper CFRESH @ 4.38 10.38% dividend good debt ratio.

anyone know anything about it?

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 10:05:00 AM , Blogger Seizhin said...

http://www.richerstock.net/stock/stocksymbolranking.php?yieldvaluerank=DESC&page=1

You should be able to arrange the stocks to see which stock have highest DIV ratio according to SET's calculation.

There's 1-2 days delay though.

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 11:08:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well as promised I will give the results on the Dividend chase, not as much as I hoped for.

Plus 1322 Baht

I have bids in on MCOT for accumulation, it's dividend date is the 25Th.

Also bidding ADVANC far below my original price
The Stock calender was correct on intuch

The next one will be EASTW on 9-2

These are all holds for me so I will
stop there

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 11:36:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

I got MCOT at a lesser price.

This is a key I sold 1900 shares of ADVANC at 115.00 just just bought them back at 110.50.

Now how would calculate that I have no idea, but the bottom line is better, because the market fell today.

Just blind luck.

Remember this can and does backfire

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 12:16:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

Wow - as of noon today, KAMART is thundering along.

Thanks for the tip on this one guys.

Any thoughts on what the peak will be?

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 1:34:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

KAMART: I blindly guess that the peak is at the price when the volume becomes big again. Count how much you have made!

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 1:47:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

MCOT im looking to buy as well possibly at 28.5 or lower. At that price 7.9% dividends.

Advanc im waiting 105.

These two are solid stocks, ones I wouldn't be afraid of, if the stocks keep going down. I'll only end up buying more. Dont confuse this with "chasing a dead stock".

Rayfisher, for the advanc stocks, you could either record it as a capital gain OR as i like to do this sometimes. Use it as a "discount". For example, you bought 1900 shares at 110.5 209,950. Sold at 115 218,500. Gain of 8,550. Bought again at 110.5. However this time, you can use that capital gain. This time you purchased 1900 shares with 209,950 - 8550 = 201,400= 106/share price. Up to you. (No fees, taxes in this calculation for simplified explaination)

Wow kamart is on fire. Nice one scrt4u :D

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 2:05:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Makro
4-6 new stores to be opened this year. 48 so far.

But the price never drops -.-

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 2:14:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

I agree I don't see Advanc and MCOT as dead stocks, far from it, so I'm very comfortable with that position.

I'm running out of dividend play nothing I want to sale with prices like this. I'm more in the buying mode then selling.

in the end Advanc made the play for me, without it I would have failed.

The talking heads are onto a double dip, that happens it really will be buy time.

E.U. opened down I believe the U.S. will do the same

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 3:49:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

I withdrawn all fundamental stocks for now but I'm still aiming at TWZ. Seems to be big support at 0.41-0.40 so maybe we can expect something soon.

 
At Monday, August 22, 2011 8:18:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

ITD is also on fire and been dipping my toes in the water for the last 3 trading days,current government suits this stock as contracts always come their way.4 years of losses should be turned right around,large volumes also

 
At Tuesday, August 23, 2011 8:09:00 AM , Blogger Sira said...

To scrt4u,

I'm interested in China stocks. Do you have your blog in CSI ?

:D

 
At Tuesday, August 23, 2011 1:08:00 PM , Blogger scrt4u said...

To Sira,

No, I don't have a blog in CSI.

 
At Tuesday, August 23, 2011 4:44:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

TWZ
might want to watch out on this one, as the second quarter results were very poor.

 
At Tuesday, August 23, 2011 5:15:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

TWZ: Lots of selling but there's also lots of buying. Who're buying the stock sold? This simple means that a group of people are getting cheaper capital cost.

 
At Tuesday, August 23, 2011 10:40:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

set: we have seen now the weak days i was talking about after the set rebound stalled at the 15 and 25 day avg crossover. intraday rebounds couldn't reclaim the 75 avg as well as 5 avg.
todays afternoon pullback while all other markets were strong doesn't look good, the continued foreign selling as well.

in case of a rebound or re-entry you should look for the set reacting to the support line of all intraday lows since 10th of february, now at 1041 (which is almost same as the important 200 day avg)

next stops would be 1029 which might be broken intraday but it needs to close above, otherwise a final straw is the 1010 area.
but these might be just rebounds to the 200 avg.....

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 12:41:00 AM , Blogger Seizhin said...

DJIA is pretty much positive, there's a short-term rally going on. EURO are also in bullish session.
Maybe we'll see a nice green market tomorrow..

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 7:11:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Strategy?

US market rallied, I assume we will see the effects of that. But, I believe it will short lived. All based on the FED and QE-3/ Personally I don't think we will see that.

So we get a dead cat bounce here.

We will get the Thai Government announcements soon.

How would you play that?

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 10:39:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Doing a little run on TWZ @.39 it was at .38 good buy vol. I think the high it's hit is .47

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 3:20:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well things were going not bad till the BOT raised the interest rates .25 again.

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 4:50:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

1041 support reached and rebounded.
will it hold?
we have to wait foor tomorrow buti am re-entering cautiously.

 
At Wednesday, August 24, 2011 5:03:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

I have tried all day to find a clear picture of economic goal, the only thing I can see so far is they will support alternative energy.

so that may be sector worth doing a bit of research in. That's complicated everyone and his little brothrer jumped on that band wagon.

anyone know who the big player is in that?

 
At Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:38:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

set rebounded to the 5 day avg, weak compared to other markets, i feel more downside ahead.

 
At Thursday, August 25, 2011 2:45:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

KAMART has a had rollercoaster over the last few days...

 
At Thursday, August 25, 2011 4:51:00 PM , Blogger ueda said...

any good defensive one? guess SET will dip around 980-1000

bought a bit SAMART & TTW at closing px

 
At Thursday, August 25, 2011 5:05:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

I'll be looking at 975-980.

Been playing MAKRO and ADVANC all these days. buy low, sell high. the usual.

Doesn't dip like the rest of the big caps.

I would say, stay out of big caps and those large names for now until 980 or so. We can expect them to continue going downwards.

 
At Thursday, August 25, 2011 6:58:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

devensive ,has to be CPALL after all whatever happens,7-11s are always needed,
Be careful now of TWZ as it looks like its on the highway to hell.I certainly hope this is not the case

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 10:05:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

The FED non event, that is what I'm expecting. Volumes are down all over the world. Thailand had 38% increase in exports recently announced. So we are not alone.

I believe money will come back into the markets once they find out there is no magic from the FED.

Wish I knew more about the MAI, I'm up for some bottom feeding.

I need another stock in the food sector beyond CPF

Any ideas?

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 10:10:00 AM , Blogger Seizhin said...

TWZ: The owner have 780M stocks 3 months ago, he sold 130M stocks 2 days ago, followed with another 70+M stocks yesterday.

It's estimated that he have sold at least 260M stocks over the previous 3 months.

Note that none of his families have the stock anymore, and the second major holder are the NVDR.

Avoid it at all cost!

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 10:25:00 AM , Blogger dee said...

TWZ: Great...I sold HMPRO at 9.35 to enter TWZ at .48, and topped up at .46-.44!!!

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 11:40:00 AM , Blogger JON said...

Ray Fisher,take a look at GFPT in the AGRI sector and MINT in the FOOD they both look good to me ??

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 1:23:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Thanks I will check them

TWZ had whopping 1700 baht in ti lost 300

Thanks for the heads up

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 1:34:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Of the two I liked GFPT better

Price 10.10 coming down

Debt ration .81

Dividend 2.91%

Look like a solid company to me.

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 3:17:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

SVI and BANPU looks entry.

Both are strong stocks, while BANPU is well known to us all, SVI is also having a good fundamental foundation. :)

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 4:35:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

BANPU
heads up President just bought 40,000 more shares few days ago at 614.

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 4:53:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Anyone know how the fees work on the ETF GLD?

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 5:44:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

Thanks for the advice on TWZ,have sold out and cut my losses,every chance it could finish up suspended and possibly de-listed.
GLD Ray Fisher can be traded directly from the Krung Thai Bank as an open ended fund but I prefer to buy it in dips on the stock market,showing slight profit.It has to report every day to the SET its net value and buy in and out price.
Both GFPT and MINT got a lift today.
Watch closely at MINT as they need to excersise their warrents on the 31st and if it does not reach 13 plus,it will not happen.Last month it went flying straight up to 13.80,so obviosly the warrents were excersised,G luck

 
At Friday, August 26, 2011 11:03:00 PM , Blogger zorro said...

set: the "final straw in the 1010 area" which i mentioned some days ago was more a baseball bat and rebounded the set the same day almost to the 200 avg around 1040.

tomorrow the 5 day avg is at 1040 as well, if we see a rise of more than 5 points i would be more hopeful.

with strong foreign selling today and many stocks have broken important supports i am with the bears.
furthermore the long upchannel of the weekly set was broken this week (chart on bartons page).
could be repaired, but i doubt.

if we see further upside it could be that a head and shoulder is forming with approx. 1015 as neckline.

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 12:55:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Jon are there any other fees other then commission's on the buy? The stocks market is where my interest lies

Like storage fees ECT

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 1:54:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

GLD
Yea I would like some info on this as well, quite interesting. As funds have 1-2% entrance and exit fees, and associated costs. So to trade the fund as a stock, do we ignore all the costs and only associate GLD as a "stock" with the usual stock fees?
Settrade doesn't have much info for GLD, I'll try to research, wanna see some financial papers first :D

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 1:57:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

No Ray,only the usual small broker fee which is peanuts,just like all other stocks, GLD should open up higher on Monday as gold has shot up a bit

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 2:00:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

forgot to add Ray,dont add on ndvr if you are online trading as GLD does not pay a dividend,its simply a tracker fund of gold

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 2:20:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Rayfisher,

http://www.set.or.th/en/products/etf/etf_faq.html

What transaction fees do I need to pay to buy or sell an ETF?
Your broker will charge you normal transaction costs (commissions) associated with the purchase or sale of the ETF. Trading commissions in the secondary market will be 0.1% which is substantially less than the 0.25% commission charged for trading stocks and index funds.

 
At Saturday, August 27, 2011 3:45:00 PM , Blogger rayfisher said...

TLUXE Sea Food Company price 4.04 debt ratio .14
dividends 9.13%

5 year chart sows 3 & 1/2 years if growth. Big drop in the last quarter.

Anyone know what's going on with it?

Thanks

Mascu

 
At Tuesday, August 30, 2011 11:29:00 AM , Blogger zorro said...

set: the volume decreased on the rebound, now stuck again at the 75 avg.
foreign selling continued, many stocks rebounded to former supports and are likely to fall again.
will have to watch the 5 day avg if one is with the bulls.

 
At Tuesday, August 30, 2011 4:10:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

SET
Today's high is in line with the previous two tops.
Next target 980 and below?

 
At Tuesday, August 30, 2011 11:55:00 PM , Blogger Meow said...

Hi guys, newbie here, just started trading SET few weeks ago through Kim eng.I am glad to find this blog, as not much information available around. Wanted to start with 2 question:1. My broker does not have "automated stop loss", i wrote to SET as well they said its not available with them. Does any other broker in TH provide that function? It's sounds strange to me. As intraday trader its very difficult to follow price movements of few stocks on portfolio without stop loss.
2. Kim eng does not allow me short selling as a foreigner(not holding work permit right now), does any other broker in TH can provide that option to foreigner account?
Thank you in advance for your replies.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 1:42:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

KAMART: Wow! keep moving up your LPP. Enjoy!

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 9:31:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Well I'm on the side lines look to come back in sometime around the next FED meeting.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 9:35:00 AM , Blogger rayfisher said...

Meow Kim Eng is what I use very happy.

Automatic stop losses I don't think anyone offers that.

I think what your running into is SET rules not a broker problem.

Bit I could be wrong.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 11:06:00 AM , Blogger Meow said...

Kim eng having automatic alerts, so automatic stop losses is not much different, just involves sell order. On the other note: SET behaves just opposite to all the predictions, no logic at all.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 12:51:00 PM , Blogger Seizhin said...

Kim Eng is the best when it comes to service.

Turnover Trades, Short-selling, Margin, registration with them is easiest and basically speaking, if you're having trouble registering with Kim Eng for short-selling, you will hardly be able to register with any other brokers.

I dont know anything about automatic stop lost, but.. I've been requested my Marketing officer to do it on my behalf.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 2:08:00 PM , Blogger Mascu said...

Meow, Welcome!
Glad to have you join us. Most have already answered your question, but I would like to add for your information regarding brokers differences.
1) Service, how fast and willing is their assistance and english proficiency.
2) How fast and reliable is their systems and internet connections? I have 2-3 broker accounts, one of them has a horrible system, as you input the buy/sell order it takes a slight delay of 1-2 seconds. The other is immediate 0.1 seconds. And the ticker keeps flashing unlike the other one which may stall sometimes. I am sure Kim Eng and Phatra are rated one of the best. The slow/less better one I use it because there is no minimum daily commission charge of 50 baht, sometimes I may buy amounts lesser than 33,333 baht, that's when I use it.

Anymore questions, just feel free to ask!
Good luck!

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 3:02:00 PM , Blogger Meow said...

I am happy with Kim Eng in general, however lack of tools like stop loss, bracket order, trailing stop and short selling for foreigners make my trading life difficult, cause i use relatively high amounts in intraday trading and don't want to be glued to the screen whole day...My programmer can write PHP script to allow those functions, but getting immediate data flow for all stocks from HTTP pages of SET is a problems, they block the IP's temporary if you sending them too many requests in short time.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 5:44:00 PM , Blogger Unknown said...

I use SCB, and they also don't allow stop loss.

They told me no broker at the SET does - either for Thai's or farangs.

It's a big pain - as I travel several times a week for work - and when I'm on a plane I would like to make sure a stock doesn't nosedive.....

Very frustrating - but it seems to be an SET rule.

On another note - KAMART is a roller-coaster. Very volatile. Any idea of what's going on there?

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 6:39:00 PM , Blogger JON said...

I use 2 brokers also,that way i can play one against the other which sometimes works,one is user freindly and the other is ruthless,so the ruthless one,I Always buy when they say sell and vice versa,dont want to mention any names but ime quite happy with their game playing.MEOW,welcome to the stockmarket playground called the SET and the fun of the roller coaster ride,the clues are all out there my freind,including in these blogs think about them,use them and BE PATIENT.

 
At Wednesday, August 31, 2011 8:32:00 PM , Blogger lukdod said...

Meow - Yes, Kim Eng is xlnt; I've been with them 3-years. I've had no problems with Kim Eng!!

OTOH, this year my problem poor stock picking. In '09 doubled portfolio!; a mere +10% in '10 and this year part of last years profits have eroded.
Frustrated, I closed out portfolio last Friday (8/26), but not the acc't. What terrible timing as the SET has boomed this week.
Oh, well, now back to the hunt for some winners :-) Cheers!

 
At Thursday, September 01, 2011 1:51:00 AM , Blogger scrt4u said...

This thread is closed. Please move to "Stocks discussion No.9 - 2011".

 

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