Stocks discussion No.3 - 2009
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.3 - 2009".
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Visit this blog daily for updates.
You must stop loss when your loss is still small.
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posted by scrt4u @ Monday, March 02, 2009
35 Comments
![[Most Recent USD from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_usd_en_2.gif)
35 Comments:
Welcome to "Stocks discussion No.3 - 2009". Please post your stock picks or questions here.
To ueda,
DELTA: You'd better reduce your position of delta.
TYONG: keep an eye on this stock!
Abyone aware or knows anything about possible merger or tie up Kim Eng/GBX or other?
BLAND: interesting! If you try, take small position with tight stop. Good luck!
SIRI: interesting!
BUY BAY TARGET 35
BUY BBL TARGET 150
SELL PTTEP TARGET 50
SELL PTT TARGET 100
BUY TRUE TARGET 15
SELL TT&T TARGET .05
SELL ADVANCE TARGET 50
BUY KTB TARGET 16.75
BUY TCAP TARGET 32
BUY KEST TARGET 57.25
BUY ASP TARGET 14.75
BUY TOP TARGET 97
SELL BANPU TARGET 89
Enjoy
INVESTMENT BANKER FROM NEWYORK!
did i mention we are from newyork lol
seems you're dreaming or frustated with your portfolio
Surprise.
ADVANCE still make a good fundamental stock, and so is BANPU and PTT in the long run.
On the analysis basis, it's most unlikely we'll see SET going back to 250s.
SET INDEX TARGET 950
ADVANC is earning less then its paying out in dividents to shareholders mainly SHIN which is owned by Temasak of Singapore, One day the only Thai company TRUE MOVE will be granted the license to operate mobile phone in Thailand ADVANC and DTAC will have to go back to their country, DTAC of Norway. Long live the KING long live Thailand!
Agreed lets see how long this can go on for, the day ADVANC runs out of cash to keep paying 6.30 as divident and slashes it lower we will see advanc shares punished hard. Take care guys!
GBX:coming back to 0.50+
GBX-W1:back to 0.30+
If you are a thai u should be ashamed of yourself if you use DTAC of Norway or ADVANC of Singapore. Be a real thai use TRUE MOVE of Thailand. Dont give ur money out keep it in the country guys! I flushed my AIS sim card today using TRUE MOVE now.
BFIT GBX UOBKH back in merger talks
Don't forget to take off your Levi's jeans, Gap , Abercrombie , Diesel, MNG etc etc etc and also dump all your Louis Vouitton stuff along with other 'alien' brands. And don't forget to get rid of those foreign perfumes. Don't miss out on those foreign TV brands, home appliances etc. Why do you need to use Panasonic, Sony, LG etc. Even your car needs to be changed since all the brands are foreign. So how about driving a local motorcycle ? I don't know if they are any local brands here. Perhaps a bicycle - that should be local ! After you've done all that, then we will all switch our mobile service provider
BLAND: Interesting!
Yes thats true so please go back to the farm and start produing rice, we are on it so at least now dumb your ais and dtac and switch to TRUE MOVE. PAD will win this war and we will all farm with them yes yes love pad.
BUY BUY BUY, BULL IS COMING!!!
This is called a bear market rally buddy ever heard of it? lol
bought some THAI & TISCO tdy, scrt4u what's your view thx!
ueda
To ueda,
THAI: set LPP at 7.85
TISCO: In uptrend, set LPP at 10.10
MK: UP over 25% since I called it. It's been up along the 10 days moving average. This is typical of the play of big hands like FUNDS.
At Friday, December 19, 2008 3:24:00 PM , scrt4u said...
MK: interesting!
E: instesting!
MINT: interesting!
STEC: It's up over 200% from the bottom. Now it's moving horizontally along the tied up 10DMA and 25DMA. If the lines can hold it, there will most probably start another "shoot-up".
SAM: interesting!
THL: keep an eye on this stock this seems consolidating the horizontal platform.
THAI doing great, hope can reach 10 or more soon :)
ueda
you might try housing too ie AP, LPN or LH
ueda
HTECH's entering the market tomorrow, any views on it?
Long write-up recommendation. sorry for not using short-hand - but I believe this investment case makes sense.
ULTRA WEIGHT SECURITIES SECTOR – FOCUS ON BLUE CHIP RETAIL BROKERS
a/ LIMITED DOWNSIDE VIA EXCESSIVELY HIGH CASH PER SHARE IN THE SECURITIES SECTOR
With exception of ZMICO, Thai listed securities sector is underleveraged, with limited or no direct investment risk and grossly excessive cash balances - often exceeding the market value of shares outstanding.
b/ FURTHER LIMITED DOWNSIDE IN DAILY AVERAGE VALUE TRADED ON THE THAI STOCK MARKET.
Although Thailand typically lags the rest of Asia, the SET has bottomed out with a number of sectors starting to recover, eg. due to rising resources / commodities prices and a uniquely robust financial sector vs. rest of Asia / rest of World. Inparticular, the Thai financial sector benefits vs. rest of Asia due to strong domestic funding via the deep local THB denominated bond market, robust deposit base, limited or no exposure to offshore CDOs, limited real estate exposure, and the overall lack of a lending bubble in the last 3 – 5 years (all the above is contrary to Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, and Japan bank stocks).
c/ RECOVERY IN DAILY AVERAGE TRADING VOLUMES?
A number of emerging equity markets are now showing positive growth for 2009 year-to-date (eg. Russia, China, Korea, Hong Kong.. soon Brazil, US, UK, etc), with momentum building for a global equity market recovery. In the Thai market, resources and financials are indeed the two largest market cap weighted sectors, and are positioned to rebound thus driving growth in the SET into 2010. Let’s hope the resilience of foreign investors return to Thailand as quickly as the tourists!! Hedge your bet via buying strong retail brokers.
d/ DEREGULATION IS WAY OVERPLAYED
(Firstly) Thai investors are more "sticky" than what the cynics believe. Due to the likelihood of varying post-deregulation fee “structures” (eg. client tiering) and entrenched personal broking relationships, churn rates and client migration are likely to be driven by poaching of brokerage staff - not by fees. As such, brokers with strong market shares will avoid migration of clients (and staff) via implementing only marginal reductions in trading commissions.
(Secondly) contrary to widely held beliefs, commission deregulation will have an asymmetrical negative impact on “institutional” vs. “retail” brokers, as current fees of 20 – 25bps do indeed represent a very “expensive” market for investors who trade in very large orders. If not for the politics, many foreign institutions and pension funds "underweight" Thailand for this reason. For small local clients however, 20 - 25bps commissions represent a very low basis versus markets such as Singapore and Hong Kong which typically charge a fee of US$25 - US$60 equivalent to 25bps of an order size of US$8,000 to US$24,000 – these are fairly sizable orders for average retail investors and day traders. With some of Thailand’s thinly traded small-mid caps, such high fee structures would substantially reduce ability to even trade!
(Thirdly) complete de-regulation in the Thai financial sector will never occur due to Thailand’s populist nationalistic (ala protectionist) policies. With post financial crisis global “re-regulation” at the forefront of most political dialogue, there will be countless “windows of opportunity”, between now and 2012, for Thailand to revisit decisions made under prior regimes.
e/ SYSTEMATIC ENTERPRISE VALUE MIS-PRICING
Simply put, investing in the listed Thai broking sector (at current prices) is akin to holding a cash portfolio with free long dated call options.... It pays to be short beta in a bear market, and long beta in a recovery. Given the generally high beta - of circa 2 - 2.5+, upside will be significant and ideal for long/short fund managers who seek downside protection. Having fallen a dramatic 60 – 70% from September 2008 levels with no long-term change in fundamentals, the reciprocal of negative 70% (i.e. upside of 3x) could be rationally expected to occur within the next 6 months.
f/ ATTRACTIVE COMPARABLE VALUATIONS
On a regional comparable basis most brokers (even today) trade at a forward PE of 10 - 15x and EV/EBITDA of 5 - 7x with 3 – 6% dividend yields. Thailand offers a forward PE of 5 – 10x, EV / EBITDA of 1x or less, with 10 – 20% dividend yields. More importantly however, the brokerage sector offers a “flow through” vis-à-vis the market, driving a non-linear relationship between P/E multiples – in other words, as stocks appreciate and “P” grows, so does “E” for a securities brokerage firm. Therefore, at levels of 3x current prices, Thai brokerages may still appear cheap – this, perhaps, could drive further price appreciation which is not offered by any other sectors on the market.
bought more TISCO & add AP too
ueda
ueda and others, please move to "Stocks discussion No.4 - 2009" because it's already April.
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